Member Info for sicilian_kan

Today is settlement day for the placers. No surprise to see some selling today. Would expect the selling to dry up after close and for this to start moving up from tomorrow.

Actually at the main presentation itself, Angle didn't proactively ;-) mention clusters once. It only featured in the Q&A after being raised by an audience member.

Rather, the main focus of Newland's presentation was on personalised medicine and Angle's role within it, focusing on breast and ovarian cancer, HER2, Abbot etc.

Ie clearly things are already going on in the background

Strip out the one off that will not appear again - the trial costs and the Incanthera purchase - and you will see that they have a good 2 years of cash. More than enough to execute their strategy. Indeed my hunch is that they will do a deal sooner rather than later. They wouldn’t change strategy and drop the cheap MAP programme if there was not a very real prospect of a P140 / Lupuzor platform deal.

Share price picking up nicely today. Could see this reach the 11-12p range today.

Exactly. So what we have are three near term events:

1. Next 1.5 weeks - results and a further corporate update
2. Next 5.5 weeks - P3 extension trial results
3. P140 / Lupuzor partnership

1. and 2. are guaranteed.

3. is looking quite possible and is a potential share price game changer

No guarantees of course and all dyor.

It means payable to.

You are mistaken. Look at the annual report. The loan is FROM Bluerock TO it’s subsidiary KMPL.

It merely funds the mining work that the subsidiary is doing.

This is a loan that the subsidiary pays BACK to Bluerock. See note 12 of the annual report:

“The intercompany balance is a loan to Kareevlei Mining Proprietary Limited that bears interest at the Nedbank Limited prime variable overdraft rate or unsecured loans to corporate customers and is repayable on demand. The carrying value of all trade and other receivables including the loan to group company is considered a reasonable approximation of fair value.”

The value owed TO Bluerock was £4.0m in 2016 and £5.6m in 2017.

The subsidiary must repay these monies TO Bluerock before it pays Bluerock dividends.

Agreed but my understand of VA is that it is £10m for the spin off (nucant and urelix) in addition to the normal P140 / Lupuzor valuation left in Immupharma

Nolupus, that's quite possible. It is also possible that a potential partner would rather proceed differently to the MAP route planned by IMM. This could also be a reason for postponing but not cancelling the MAP, for the reasons set out by the board today (corporate partner and regulatory discussions).

Reads to me like they might be doing a platform deal on Lupuzor / P140.

The Managed Access Programme (the way forwards trumpeted for some time) is postponed pending engagement with potential corporate partners (and regulatory advisors on potential pathways to market).

At the same time, the Notes to the Editors in the IMM RNS changes to emphasise the whole P140 platform in addition to lupus, including Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn's Disease, and Asthma; Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE); Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS); and Guillain-Barre disease (chronic/CIDP).

They are obviously expecting further near term strategic news, stating: ImmuPharma will provide a further update on its operations and strategy in its Final results for the year ended 31 December 2018, which are expected to be announced by the end of this month.

Warrants that are not due to expire are only ever taken up to sell them. The whole point of a warrant is that it is a risk free option on the upside which does not need a capital outlay.

The fact that warrants were not exercised at 2p when 2.5p is a good sign. It suggests warrant holders believe the share price will rise further and wanted exposure to the same.

TomE, you are completely wrong about the drilling date. The deal RNS states April not Q1.

“Newcrest will act as Manager during the Farm-in period and it is expected that drilling at Havieron will recommence in April 2019, under Newcrest's management and at Newcrest's expense, and subject to Newcrest receiving all required regulatory and heritage approvals.

The bond has long been planned as part of the overall scheme. There are a number of RNSs dealing with it. That it is moving ahead is a good thing.

To keep the farm-in, Newcrest has to spend $10m in 12 months at the Havieron tenements.

Given that operations shut down in Paterson due to the heat, from mid-December, this actually means that Newcrest has to complete the drilling, due to start in April, within 8 months.

$10m worth of drilling (including lab costs thereafter) is one shed load of driling to exercise within 8 months on an area such as Havieron.

Yes, the minimum spend is $5m, so yes Newcrest could stop mid-campaign if they do not like the results, but only after a $5m spend. But I do not expect that, and without spending the full $10m in the next 12 months, they forfeit the right to the farm-in.

As Newcrest is expected to re-commence drilling at Havieron in April 2019 (see Deal RNS), I'm expecting to see drill plan announced within the next few weeks / month detailing a massive drill programme. I expect the share price to respond accordingly and will be somewhere between 2.5p and 3p. A great time to buy, imho. As ever, dyor etc.

No up front cash.

70% given away therefore for only future spend.

GGP therefore bear just as much project risk and project dilution, just have no funding requirement.

I would have preferred another round of drilling, funded by GGP. They said they had the money to do it. Why bail out for nothing up front and a minor thing stake right now?

Any sensible company will raise funds at least 6 months before funds are due to expire.

Then there is the question as to what "current levels of projected expenditure are" and whether or not GGP intend to accelerate expenditure.

Plus, the next drilling will start in say March, say 2 months of drilling and then 2.5 months for results in the first batch. So the next batch of drilling results will be in July / August time. Would they really want to have their funding thereafter contingent (in terms of value) upon those drill results or would they not prefer to bag some now just in case.

Shareholders had wanted the drilling results to give more certainty about:

(a) the likelihood of Havieron being a mine; and
(b) the likely amount of gold in million ounces

Whilst significant amounts of gold were found, on both of the above, the drilling results failed to give better clarity. We will have to await the next round of drilling to have a better indication of both of the above.

Where we do have better clarity is this. It is unlikely that the warrants will be exercised and the share price is unlikely at present to go above 3p for 5 consecutive days to force their conversion.

As such, it is likely that a placing or jv will be required to fund the company, particularly if they are intending to accelerate drilling with two rigs and to drill other licenses as well. At this stage a placing is in my view more likely than not. If correct, I see the inevitable drift in share price, bit by bit, as it becomes expected and would guess that the placing would be priced between 1.5p and 1.8p depending upon the prevailing share price at the time. I think the placing shares will be snapped up very quickly.

Of course, all holders should do their own research as always. These are just my views. But I think the smart money will have sold yesterday at higher prices than these today and will be waiting on the side to get back in either at or after the inevitable funding round.

The HAD005 visible mineralisation was announced by RNS on 1 October 2018. It took until 19 November 2018 to release the assays, i.e. 7 weeks.

The HAD006-HAD009 visible mineralisation was announced by RNS on 4 December 2018. If it were to take the same length of time to release the assays by RNS, one could have expected news here on HAD006-HAD009 around 22 January 2019, i.e. yesterday.

But then we must add in a little extra time for Christmas and New Year, so my best estimate is news any time between now and the end of next week. Quite literally, at any time this week or next.

Importantly, the above proves that that there have not been delays.

One further thing that is also for sure, there is not long to wait and the general trend in the interim has to date been up, with only the odd short-lived pullback.

HAD005 reported 239m of visual mineralisation. When the assays were announced later, they declared 275m at 5.75g/t gold equivalent.

Identifying the visual mineralisation was therefore fairly accurate. This is even more impressive when looking at the matched depths.

- Report of visual mineralisation from 458m to 577m. Gold was later found from 459m to 577m at 3.08g/t and 0.84% copper
- Report of visual mineralisation from 782m to 822m. Gold was later found from 660m to 817m at 6.04g/t and 0.44% copper

Now let's look at today's RNS and compare that to the 239m of visual mineralisation for HAD005:

- HAD006, visual mineralisation reported of 363m, i.e. 50% bigger than the world class HAD005
- HAD007, visual mineralisation reported of 237m, i.e. similar to the world class HAD005
- HAD008, visual mineralisation reported of 90m, i.e. not far off the excellent HAD001's size of 121m
- HAD009, which is 100m to the South even at depth, had visual mineralisation reported of 227m, i.e. similar to the world class HAD005

All in all, it looks very promising. We do not know grades and they may of course not be as good or as consistent. As ever DYOR and do not invest what you cannot afford to lse. We will have to see the actual results. But I think all holes will have large amounts of gold in given what we now know and my money is where my mouth is. I would say we have moved from risk on [risk of a dud hole] to (relatively) risk off and am a buyer.