RE: When will Zenakine be in the shops?11 Apr 2025 13:23
Toyin, the disclosure rules which apply to mid-season changes to previous forecasts are designed to cover variations in profit forecasts, including those published by analysts. They don't apply to the vague forecasts you refer to. And they certainly don't apply to forecasts of 'cash generation' because generating cash is not the same as making a profit. Similarly, things like 'cash runway' cover a multitude of things which don't necessarily correlate to sales or profits. A company can increase its cash runway by reducing its costs, by borrowing, etc.
The only specific figure we can focus on is the £5.3m revenue forecast and the company has said that it is trading in line with expectations. So we must assume that the cash received from Croda hasn't changed anything. Of course, we can't assume either that the Croda cash will be consistent and it's not in Ashman's power to forecast how much they will get in the next quarterly payment.
So, unless SBTX have applied to the regulator for an exception, nothing has happened which would require them to materially change their forecast.
And do you know that SBTX haven't applied for an exception? The UKLA can grant a dispensation from the requirement to make an announcement where disclosure of the relevant information might prejudice a company's legitimate interests. Arguably, that could apply to the Croda deal since there would seem to be a risk of losing it if the NDA is broken.
We know the score here. SA has spelled it out on several occasions and in RNS's, eg:
"The commercialisation by Croda of the SkinBiotix lysate has begun. Due to the highly confidential nature of its business and market, shareholders will only see the impact from the Croda partnership upon our financial results at full year end, and long term…"