Member Info for shychap

"If you pay attention to the occasional interruption, you will note elrico is challenging on a specific point. It's he job."

Not true - but not important. Let the man finish his sentence before challenging...or changing the subject.

Elrico's interview with SA this morning is a good listen (although I wish he wouldn't keep interrupting our CEO when he is in the middle of revealing something important). My key takeaways:

• "Very, very strong sales" in Jan and Feb which have already added £1.7m to annual revenue - but not mentioned in the RNS due to SBTX policy of only quoting audited numbers;

• FY revenue target of £5.3m "will be achieved";

• SA has "no cash concerns whatsoever";

• As yet unnamed new Croda secret ingredient is indeed our lysate;

• Croda revenues will be received quarterly in arrears - after Croda gets paid;

• All Croda revenue goes straight to the bottom line with no Opex deduction;

• SA and the chairman will be in Amsterdam for the Croda launch and will be disseminating Croda's marketing news to us on the opening morning;

• The £500k deferred payment to Dermatonics will happen at the end of April but only if sales are higher than forecast/expected (which presumably is not the case as today's RNS states revenues "in line with management expectations";

• SA thinks more Macquarie warrants may be exercised soon, adding up to £400k to the bank account.

SA is either telling the truth or he is a better showman than PT Barnum. I think the former…and the SP is recovering well now.

Cyberbub, although SA has said that the Croda deal means he won't ever again need to raise funds for working capital, he could well take advantage of the expected SP uplift in April to push through an open offer or placing to fund another acquisition or the next stage of the MediBiotix or oral lysate R&D programs or to invest in new plant for Dermatonics.

Much depends on the amount of incoming revenue from Croda; but the expectation of no short-term profitability suggests to me that more cash will be needed in the near term for CAPEX to fund expansion/development.

No doubt plenty here and elsewhere would be complaining long and hard if any fundraising event were to have been scheduled prior to April.

"But if the Croda payment was for goods not yet delivered then the payment, if received, could be hiding under Liabilities."

Hard to find under Liabilities too since the included deferred payments of £500k and £250k presumably relate to the stage payments for the purchase of Dermatonics as noted in the FY24 accounts.

That £500k payment was due by 31/1/25 if Dermatonics had achieved its EBITA target. Since everything is reported today as being in line with expectations then the assumption must be that Dermatonics did hit its EBITA target and that the £500k was duly handed over last month - and making a big dent in the SBTX cash position reported at 31/12/24.

At a stretch, it's just about possible that SBTX could have paid Dermatonics £500k before the year end in which case that £500k liability could now be the advance payment from Croda.

If not, I can't find any sign that the promised Croda payment was received – notwithstanding Elrico's report to the contrary. And SA has never publicly stated that the payment did arrive.

There is certainly no Croda income under Revenue because the total HY25 revenue of £1.58m breaks down as:

Dermatonics £1.03m

Bio-Tech Solutions £0.42m

AxisBiotix-Ps £0.13m

But if the Croda payment was for goods not yet delivered then the payment, if received, could be hiding under Liabilities.

If the promised Croda payment was received before 31 Dec it has to be included somewhere in these accounts. Where it appears depends on whether the payment was for goods already delivered (which would require it to be included under Revenue) or an advance payment for goods yet to be delivered (which would make it Deferred Income, meaning it has to be entered as a Liability until the goods have been delivered). Either way, it wasn't a huge amount and more significant revenues should be incoming now.

"SKINBIOTHERAPEUTICS PLC will be holding a Half Year Results & Launch meeting on 16th Apr 2025 at 11:00am BST. Please click on the button below to accept the meeting invitation."

FWIW, SA said this about Macquarie in December:

"I am informed that they tend to hold their warrants for long-term value, although that remains to be seen."

However, Macquarie exercised 250k warrants this month which presumably signals their intentions going forward. That doesn't make them a certain seller but there aren't many other credible reasons for exercising.

And yet, why didn't they convert their entire 2.3m tranche if they are minded to sell? Is it possible that SA needed £50k of working capital urgently and therefore asked Macquarie to convert those warrants?

"As I said from the outset, better to get some facts before attributing 100% of the blame."

Toyin, I have plenty of facts thank you but you need to check yours. Misquoting me is schoolboy stuff.

SA is in denial about SOH selling SBTX shares. He told me in late December that SOH had stopped selling, which he 100% believed. Of course, SOH then proceeded to sell a further 1.2m shares over the next couple of months so I suspect a conspiracy.

And SA also denied any knowledge of any other institutional seller too so he can't see any need for an off-market buyer.

But that is obviously nonsense since SOH is clearly in desperate need of cash and has continued to dump SBTX shares.

"You have spoken to neither ceo"

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Toyin, just saying: you're the one who needs to check their facts - especially before mouthing off about your assumptions in public. My name is Chapman in case you ever do get around to fact-checking.

And I suggest you reserve your anger for the people who have done you some harm.

Toyin, you seem to jumping to conclusions. Did you ask SA if he had discussed this with me? I suggest you do that because you're tripping yourself up.

Toyin, facts don't often get in the way of BB dialogue but it's a fact that SOH is a seller and it only takes one ii to fix everyone's problem. Not a trader but an investor. Someone happy to pay less than the current Ask while SOH would get to sell at more than the current Bid. That's not rocket science and I don't need any other facts clouding the issue.

The surprising thing is that there appears to be no off-market buyer waiting to snap up SOH's SBTX shares. Surely SA in tandem with their broker could have lined up an ii or HNW individual to assume ownership?

Can't blame SOH for selling if he needs the cash but I do blame others for not finding a better way.

Does this require a subscription?

The health risks from the chemicals used in cosmetics get the Daily Mail clickbait treatment today:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14526367/cosmetics-makeup-endometriosis-PCOS-moisturiser-deodorant-endocrine.html

See also new exposé of cosmetic harms, especially in UV filters, in Nature World News:

https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/72560/20250318/hidden-dangers-lurking-your-cosmetics-uv-filters-exposed.htm

…and the wider review of the health and environment risks from synthetic cosmetics published six months ago in Frontiers:

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1402893/full

Oleic, both SBTX and Croda (and possibly also some Croda customers) have carried out consumer trials which were pronounced very positive and indeed, led to the signing of the contract. You are free to call them all liars but I don't see how Croda might benefit from such lies.

But in a month or so you may be able to buy a jar of anti-ageing wonder lotion and test it on your wife if that's the only evidence you are willing to believe.

OTOH, it's a concern that CRDA shares have now hit a 5yr low.

The highly qualified experts at Croda have given clear and credible endorsements and, incidentally, signed a contract with SBTX. The science has been peer reviewed and the SBTX patent has had an exceptionally high number of citations by other boffins around the world. The invention followed years of research at one of our leading academic institutions.

So, it's a brave, or blind, man who now thinks it might not work.

I suppose a conspiracy theorist might wonder if Croda has signed up only to keep it out of the hands of their competitors; but in all likely scenarios, we are good to go.

"Post period the Company sold 1,211,567 SBTX shares at an average price of 20p, generating gross proceeds of £257K.”

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And that is since his last TR-1 on 10/12/24 and since he declared that he had stopped selling his SBTX shares. So you are right not to believe.

We have now been warned that the selling will continue – for working capital or, allegedly, to produce shareholder dividends (!) – and he still has around 20m left…