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Rule 9 of the Take over and mergers code requires anyone achieving a 30% (or more) holding to make a mandatory offer (at the highest price paid by the bidder during the prior 12 month period prior to the offer announcement) So our Mr 11% may just take this out for 50p if the sells keep coming.

Crazy reaction today to mostly well known news. The sell side was strong this afternoon so a fund unloading is most likely.
Typically lots of fear mongering crap being posted by the usual suspects. Whilst Dorothy is executing a real kitchen- sinking to reset the company, there is so much here now for this market cap - 95% of assets independently audited (Jubilee increased a little), monetisation options on various Assets still very much on the table, decent contingent resources, Structural changes on the way to reduce fixed costs, 2020 production guidance on the safe side, sensible approach to unlocking Guyana. The Call confirmed they don’t even have debt to equity covenants. At these levels, stakes will be being built by some. Long termers will be hurting, so time to ignore the crap and await Peru news (40-50m barrels), New CEO, Jubilee Ops plan & March strategic plan. My take is 50p will provide a floor based on resources & exploration assets. Those short will be severely burnt by the mere sniff of a bid.

The buy volume has far outweighed the sell volume in the last two days, hence the rise, but it’s being controlled. It looks to me like there is a pattern in the MM’s dropping the bid on very low volume. Suggesting they may be trying to keep a lid on things and assist some shorts to close. I’m guessing Brandes continue to feed the market with some shares too.

I forgot, it will also be very interesting to see the Magasin du Nord Xmas results. If these exceed expectations, this will be an added bonus.

What’s more serious though is why their 2nd biggest shareholder (Brandes) has decided they want out at this late stage. I’m assuming we’ll see another RNS on Monday informing the market of their further reduced position. The SP actually held up well on Friday given the weight of sells. Someone picked up that volume, who though is anyone’s guess.
As I previously mentioned, the 4th Jan update doesn’t need to set the world alight, it needs decent numbers, that importantly show evidence that their strategy is working (revamped / key stores do well, debs online & debs plus do well, growth in key ranges etc, etc)
If that’s the case, I believe they have a good chance to renegotiate their revolving credit facility with lenders.

It’s ten times worse in ADVFN which is why I have recently set up an account here.

My take (for what it’s worth) is that Ashley has a real dilemma on his hands. As the share price falls prior to 4th Jan, he knows confidence in DEBS will wain and at that point, the Debenhams board may be far more likely to except an offer. Yes he can purchase what he wants from the administrator (but that my never happen, and if it does, will more likely be some time later in Jan/Feb 2019). I believe he is looking at a relatively small window of opportunity here (time wise) in order to secure the Debenhams business at the right time so that he can 1) get it at an acceptable price & 2) merge it with the HOF and take advantage of the synergies from day one which must have massive financial advantages over doing it at some point after he’s reorganised HOF. (Rent negotiations, supplier terms, store closures etc are all massive synergies from a combined business). If Jan 4th comes and the DEBS strategy shows signs of success (note I don’t say overall figures are good) so I mean revamped / flagship stores do well, online sales are good etc), I believe the banks will continue support the business and its turnaround plan and at that point the shares should be in demand. (If that happens of course). At that point MA will have two choices if he wants DEB - be forced into a hostile takeover at a higher share price or go back to the DEBS board with a revised offer.
Just my thoughts of course.

Agreed HH, So how would you interprete the way the reprice held up today?
Surely there’s someone accumulating the shares that Brandes look to be selling en mass.

That may be your view mycar, but you can’t deny it’s a six figure investment in a business that many are calling bust? I wouldn’t be surprised to see more go through. Even today some large trades from yesterday came through.

I think we can expect to see some large after market trades go through today followed by some interesting holding RNS in the coming days.

SEA7 is spot on. About the code and that code waivers can be granted in certain circumstances with shareholder approval.

My guess is there’s a matched buyer for the Brandes shares. Equity changing hands here, I wonder who is accumulating?

I think that is a very fair assessment. The only thing I would add is it’s not a loan, but a revolving credit facility.
The share price is where it is right now mainly because we have a clear seller (Brandes), we can factor in the market sentiment etc, but when there’s a persistent seller with volume to shift, the share price isn’t going anywhere as we can see, in fact it’s holding up relatively well and someone has to have been buying over the last couple of days.
My earlier post about MA’s holding I believe is critical here. Xmas trading will be key, but not only the numbers, but evidence that their strategy is being underpinned - online sales performance, top performing locations etc etc.

Looks like they will sell out completely which will keep Firm pressure on the price until they are out. It did look like a lot of automated sells going through over the last two days.

MA’s holding in Debs in now severely underwater! So I would be amazed if he stood by and let DEBS fail and risk losing his entire investment for the sake of what is now a modest investment to take control. The key thing here will be the combination of DEBS & HOF and (as someone as already aluded too) the timing of it. If he combines them now at the beginning of his tenure all the synergies will be much easier to create. I believe the added value that DEBS has over HOF is their online presence (inc Debenhams plus) which when be driven by an ex-Amazon CEO is something that can only enhance HOF. MA is already on record as stating JD’s successful over SPD is down to demand for premium brands, which I believe was in his head for the HOF deal. A combined DEBS & HOF would Allow him to cover all spectrum brands inc sports coverage in each. The game is not over here by any means, but some decent XMAS figures are required (even showing their online growth) to convince stakeholders.