Member Info for Showsnowman

Yes I echo that Entirely. All the best Tony.

Thank you Slift. Like Tony, I read all your posts with interest. It will be Very tight for sure, but it’s all there in the going concern statement, you are just adding your colour to it. I don’t think you are far off the mark at all. As someone alluded too earlier, Rahul’s experience at Merrill Lynch makes him a great choice of CEO to navigate through what will be a very tricking period for a highly leveraged company like Tullow. The world will require hydro-carbons for many years yet, so I personally see a spike in oil prices when the dust settles on Covid’s impact on the oil sector. Some analysts are starting to pen such predictions. Tullow’s African assets are world class and Rahul’s CV suggests he can optimise those too whilst dealing with the refinancing. The more I read about the guy, the more I like. As a side note, it’s reads (Good article on ADVFN thread) as if yesterdays meeting with TOTAL & the Ugandan authorities went very well.

That’s my feeling too Tony. Guyana could well be where the remaining disposal is made.

Comes when a vaccine arrives, the world restarts and they then find a sector that has been decimated in terms of capacity & investment. At that point oil prices Move firmly in one direction only. If Tullow can get through Until that period, then a lean & mean business with Rahul at the helm will prosper. Shareholders one the other hand, as always are at the mercy of the Financing decisions (as per PMO), but even Premier equity will eventually Recover in that situation.

Very little colour on Guyana though. Which made me wonder if this is an asset that they will look to dispose off. I can imagine that one or two inbound enquiries have been received for Guyana. The rework of the Kenya figures could prove a much more attractive project in a low oil price environment, so I can envisage some ‘risk versus reward‘ discussions on weighing up the disposal of either Guyana or Kenya

Yes all in all, a decent update. Bringing the March redetermination forward to January 2021 (as questioned by an analyst) suggests that they are very confident And want to share a new plan with the banks as soon as possible. Even with the risks that brings, so it suggests they are also very confident about receiving the Uganda funds. I like many others here like the tone of Raul. I couldn’t help think if we only had him at the helm 12 to 18 months ago, then the company would be in such a different position. It will be a long road back, but there could be some good rewards down here at these levels.

Let’s hope so Tony. I have a large holding here, but don’t post much these days . I always read your posts with interest, so thank you. I tend to agree that the recent falls are common across the sector right now, however what I cannot fathom is it just does not correlate with the move in oil prices.
We certainly need Uganda sorted that’s for sure. I am a firm believer that once the dust settles from Covid-19, and we see the true impact on capacity, and investment, Oil will see a significant rise. Hence I countinue to hold with that long term view.

Tony I think a lot will depend on what the G20 oil producing nations will decide to cut tomorrow plus as you mentioned there will be some further US discussions early next week with regard to further US cuts. In some ways it’s useful that the G20 meeting can see the oil price reaction to a 10.2m cut. The 10.2m figure represents a 23% reduction across those OPEC+ states. If the US, Canada, Norway etc can meet that 23% OPEC+ target, then there is a chance that the market will respond positively.

An excellent RNS.

It was CNBC’s tweet that President Trump tells CNBC that he spoke to President Putin yesterday and Saudi Crown Prince today and expects them to announce an oil production cut of 10 million barrels and could be up to 15 million.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/rockets-intercepted-saudi-capital-riyadh-jazan-report-200328212702883.html

Franky I take your point about the glut of oil and on that point you raise a genuine concern. However if Tullow is able to succeed in its portfolio management (so dispose of an asset or even farm down an asset) then it means that it can operate at the low oil-price environment Well within its covenant range. Many oil companies will not be able to generate positive cash flows in such an environment, but for Tullow it really only is about getting through this initial 6 to 12 month period and successfully negotiating the September RBL redetermination.

What may well force OPEC+ into fresh negotiations (aside from pressure from the US and other poorer OPEC+ members is with massive falling demand and so much oil supply right now, the refiners across many parts of the world are already stocked with crude for April and don’t have much room to take extra barrels from Saudi Arabia or Russia regardless of how cheap the flood of additional supply will be. Therefore the pursuit of volume at any price will likely backfire. Add to that the cost of storing it and it becomes a false economy. Putin and MBS and both proud headstrong leaders, but with their own economies at risk and with both yet to see peak COVID-19, my money would be on a move towards cutting. Likely all dressed up as some kind of trade deal so they all save face.

That is an excellent find. Great news.

https://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/an-oil-price-war-that-achieves-nothing-1.70467363

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Senators-Urge-Saudi-Arabia-To-End-Oil-War.html

What period of Asset Sales???
Nothing like that reported at all. Only the subject of “Portfolio Management” which could include a disposal or farm down.

Yes I’m assuming SB that there are other that are undeclared/ under 0.5%.
That is one plus in these turbulent times that some will look to close just to move their money into other prey. If the RBL redetermination gets approved than I assume TLW will RNS which may be the trigger for a few of them. I guess as oil collapses in the short term, the risk is the lenders will be less inclined to agree it. That said, banks and lenders also will be facing various losses so finding firms that can pay the hefty interest charges are key for their earnings.
No immediate signs of SA & Russia getting back to the table. Perhaps the US filling their tanks with shale will make them rethink. With oil demand falling at this rate, a price war is just not the answer, why on earth can’t they see it?

Is who is mopping up all the share sales? Where are the TR1’s???

The factual answer is yes. The first important milestone is the redetermination agreement of the reserves based lending facility (RBL) which has been submitted and is currently under approval by the lenders with a decision expected by the end of March. The board in the video conference seemed very upbeat about it.