Member Info for Showsnowman

Yes Licker, this could interesting very quickly. I’m not sure the hedge funds envisaged the SoftBank holding falling into sticky hands. Not much free float at all now.

Yes ditto Justice. Just catching up myself. Update reads very well in the current climate. Media finally have an update they can’t distort too much, although I’m sure they’ll try! The SOP valuation must look low to many now. Hopefully SP will push on from here now.

That’s true HH. I think your right that the institutional averages will have a say in things, but my guess is that they can/will issue new shares to those that play a part in the companies next phase as a private company (that’s what I meant by making it work for the institutions).
I also agree with you about the timing. If he can make it to warmer waters on the Macro picture, things change significantly. We all await our fate with interest.... what the hedge funds are thinking- now that’s another topic all together!!!!

To be clear HH, it’s not a case of potentially being shafted, I just have a hunch that (if he strikes in the next 3-6 months) the price will be nearer £1 - which for me personally wouldn’t be a disaster, but for many it might. Like I said, he can make such a price work for everyone else, except PI’s. I’m here with a very large stake for the sum of the parts valuation and the potential take out, so I’m just sharing my thoughts.

I understand what you’re saying HH, but a shrewd entrepreneur like MM won’t be thinking of anything like a fair commercial transaction. That’s my fear. We would be just be collateral damage in this disastrous phase as a listed company. To continue to play devils advocate: Worth remembering that at any takeout price, he can still take care of friends, families, employees and charities (long after we’ve gone) so I’m not sure I consider that any protection. He would still have all the tools at his disposal to maintain his reputation in the North too.
The few remaining institutions will just need to be sweetened, thats all it would take. IMHO of course.

I think he is upto something too Oakhurst1, but the big question (risk) for us all is will it benefit existing shareholders. My fear is it won’t. It may well be north of today’s share price, but I don’t see a price that many see on here. I hope I’m wrong.

That is spot on Licker. A.though a few on here will no doubt now call you a Fud spreader or even a shorter! Bit sad really.

Keep the varied posts coming Golden, any diligent investor choosing to read these boards will always read everything and decide for themselves. Exactly what these message boards are for.

Thanks Sharefall. To you too.

The last few days have been very positive IMHO, which makes a nice change. I feel MM has handled the SoftBank exit very well. I’m slightly surprised (if indeed he wants to take this private), why he didn’t seek to take more shares from SoftBank, but I’m sure he has a sound reason.
The Cannacord update was a positive. Volume was strong too which suggests some TR1’s will emerge and possibly some shorts are reducing. My personal one to watch is Marshal Wace as they seem to get it right more often than not, so hopefully we will see them continue to reduce.
Some shorts continue to add to their positions, suggesting they don’t see any corporate activity yet OR they foresee a further weak update next week, and obviously the deteriorating market conditions are helping their cause.
I continue to hold as I’m well underwater now (so limited options for me) but a I do so based not on hope, but on the sum of the parts valuation of THG. I don’t believe that market conditions will improve anytime soon, but I’ve been around long enough to know that when the tide looks like turning, the same financial institutions will want to ride the wave back up again. The Accumulation Phase for anyone that wants a late night night google read!!!
Let’s hope next weeks update gives us something to smile about. If not, then we may revisit the 30’s. Hopefully not. Come on Matt.

Each to their own HH. That is what makes for balanced discussion. There are some on here that are so blindly Uber positive, that anyone would think the SP isn’t sitting at less than 10% of IPO value. Talking as if the CEO has done no wrong, that because he is charitable, that he must treat shareholders the same way, that the only outcome is that he will take THG private for a price well north of today. That the extremely successful hedge funds have got this all wrong. I could go on and on. Personally I think that kind of chat can equally frustrate people.

Very sad that some on here can’t accept that holders of this stock can’t be disappointed with the share price performance. Before the normal accusations come, I have a very large holding here, and whilst the recent moves to deal with Softbanks exit can be commended, the company has made a lot of mistakes, for which the CEO should rightfully be held accountable. So holders have every right to be frustrated and sound negative.

5.5 million shares

Let’s not forget, the financial community created a narrative the get this IPO away (oversubscribed) at £5 per share and sent it well north of that. They have all the same tools at their disposal, to do something similar (although likely nowhere near that level) when the landscape changes and it suits them to do so. At that point all the SOP valuations will emerge and growth stocks will again be fashionable.

You make a fair point Pokerchips, but I would also add to that the statistic that today’s Sunday Times is reporting - that In the first eight months of this year £14.6 billion was withdrawn from funds, including a record £3 billion from equity funds in August. This along with the inflationary environment and looming recession basically creates the perfect storm for the Hedge Funds. Like many here I’m sitting on massive paper losses and am resigned to being locked in now until better times emerge. Frustrating yes, but as someone stated on here earlier in the week, the accumulation phase will commence at some time because all of these investment vehicles will need to ride the train back to better days, so its not IF, but WHEN in my opinion.

I have a feeling they will have to wait 6 months in order to make a further bid.

For clarity I mean the costs associated with embedding the acquisitions into the business (not the acquisitions themselves).

Does anyone have a feeling (or has heard them mentioned in previous calls) about such costs?
I can imagine that most have fell in this 2022 accounting period and for the many acquisitions THG made could be quite significant value - that won’t recur in 2023?

Also worth mentioning is the attractive free capacity of their infrastructure. Someone in similar market / product categories looking to avoid a £2BN plus investment in their own capacity / logistics upgrades might just fancy THG for that reason.
Someone on here earlier mentioned some days ago that “THG will become a monster”, I assumed they were referring to their global capacity / infrastructure.

Or Okehurst, they look to ride out this inflationary period, growing the top line and eventually margin growth. I do tend to agree with your view on a sale, as the previous bids from those close by suggested he was looking to flush out others (& to gauge the share register).
I’m now sadly locked in here like many for an additional 18 months at least. For me it’s the nonsensical 0.2x valuation & the SOP valuation although we are now realising the sum of the parts is very intertwined. If you can grow your top line sales in a tough inflationary environment, that’s encouraging. I like the capacity and capability of their infrastructure. but unless the business can become easier to value, then Its going to be difficult to attract bids. The falling value of Sterling looks like it may help attract overseas bids though. Valuations of £2.50 buyout are now very far fetched. The line “£1.70 significantly undervalues out business” becomes further from reality the longer this tough period goes on and compared to the current Market Cap.