Member Info for Showsnowman

Everyone on here keeps mentioning “asset sale” or disposal. Dorothy actually alluded to “portfolio management” which could include a number of actions including further farm downs.

Bloomberg are reporting that the US are investigating SA under anti-dumping laws claiming that SA took advantage of a worldwide pandemic to flood the market with cheap oil. No ideas how that will play out, but another interesting development in this saga.......

On Monday, Aramco is due to hold a webcast to discuss its full-year results. Company executives could be grilled over whether pumping crude full-throttle is in the best interests shareholders.

Hopefully A good sign in my opinion. Odey often stays put with 1-3% and has done well doing it.
Mass of buys today but down again.

As stated in the presentation this morning they are also prepared to Reduce capex where possible should price movements dictate. I’m not sure how many have you watched this morning‘s presentation but the most striking point For me was when Dorothy was asked to expand on the $1 billion plus potential asset disposal that had been mentioned. Her answer was very clearly that she could not discuss any details on this because it was commercially sensitive, which suggests to me that a significant asset disposal is already in the pipeline.

Not sure if anyone saw this. $2BN is what Tullow are trying to seek, and could be finalised through arbitration in a UK court. Even if it’s less (as the Kenyans calculate), it’s a very significant sum in the context of both income and sale potential.

https://www-businessdailyafrica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Tullow-shocks-State-with-Sh204bn-Turkana-/3946234-5486560-view-asAMP-149w95v/index.html?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&_js_v=0.1#aoh=15839359045803&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessdailyafrica.com%2Feconomy%2FTullow-shocks-State-with-Sh204bn-Turkana-%2F3946234-5486560-117dka6%2Findex.html

There are 3 or 4 snippets of news that have been released in various global media recently (all have been shared here at some point), so my guess is that the company will report all these, plus hopefully CEO, Enrenya news etc). This would hopefully be enough that TLW can demonstrate it can meet any medium term debt obligations and ride out this period of covid-19 / oil price war. Any news on bids, would normally have to be declared to the market, so I doubt bid news will be announced, other than possibly “we have had informal expressions of interest” in our assets.

Squarepoint & Citadel now below 0.5% reportable threshold & Odey down too.
Total shorts now 4.45%

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202003098862/uganda-environmental-agency-approve"It is a step closer to final investment decision and realization of first oil," said Zhao Shunqiang, head of CNOOC's Ugandan unit. CNOOC along with France's Total and the U.K.'s Tullow are developing Uganda's oil fields, estimated to contain some 6.5 billion barrels of crude.s-cnooc-oil-project

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202003098862/uganda-environmental-agency-approves-cnooc-oil-project

Yes this is very strange. They must be being held back surely.

OK Nickel understood. It’s good to see Baron reporting that, as there is a lot of false scaremongering here.

So you think Nickel that Brent will average < $18/bbl in 2020??
I don’t think so.

Assets subject to Oil Prices, but some recent write downs have already taken place.

I believe the first action from Trump would be some contact with SA. He will never get a mandate to go to war with SA based on a business decision, but he may well have some other intelligence, tarrifs, arms deal up his sleeve. Something tells me Iran will be involved in his response too.

This one will be interesting. Logic would say many would now close for a very healthy return, but we know Odey likes the smell of death and often is the last to close. Key group added on March the 6th and have the largest short position, but todays rout may now see a few close out.
What puzzles me is the lack of TR1’s? Not one. I can’t believe the institutions aren’t unloading too, given the FTSE relegation plus the increase in financial risk. My take is that we have someone loading up (maybe Samuel) who knows. The Saudis have taken a massive gamble taking this action, let alone abandoning other OPEC members, which may sadly result in more attacks on their assets. My take is it will be a short term action and discussions will resume on March 18th. I’m sure Trump will be applying pressure too, as he has a lot riding on the next 3 months. Unlike Tullow he has no hedging!

Saudi Arabia were pushing for cuts to Maintain price levels, because they need higher prices. Opening the production floodgates is simply a short term tactic, nothing more.

Adam, like many you may be under water right now, but the best advice anyone can give you is wait until Thursdays update. Then you can look at the latest situation on the companies strategic review, their operational updates and their wider actions given recent developments in the oil market/ virus situation.

Yes the hedging will protect them until much later in the year. Then the situation is no different to any other oil producer. If China starts to recover in the coming months, which it will, then demand will start to recover. The wave of reduced demand then rolls across the globe as the epidemic spreads. I didn’t even mention Asset disposal in my earlier post, but TLW has various disposal options too. The market is in panic right now, for sure, but be assured folks, those with deep pockets will use this period (just like in 2008) to make many billions in periods like this. When it suits, their agenda, the hedge funds / shorts will close, they will go long and mop up here. The banks will need the likes of oil exploration firms for their massive interest payments more then ever as rates fall.

The complete drivel posted on here is appalling. TLW has hedging in place to protect it from all the volatility for many months to come. By which time COVID 19 situation and the oil price environment will be vastly different. With operational improvements coming on line now and in the future, there is nothing stopping (maybe except Enrenya) stopping TLW get back close to 2019 output levels. Add to that a reduction in capex for 2020 and pushing back the decommissioning, and TLW have many options to ride out this tough period. They have no market cap / debt covenants and no new term debt obligations, not to mention headroom. That’s not to say the share price and the oil price won’t drop further as the panic continues, but talk of TLW going under due to these unprecedented events are complete garbage.

https://www.modernghana.com/news/987898/fpso-kwame-nkrumah-turret-bearing-challenges-resol.html