Member Info for Showsnowman

Zimbabwe recently enacted Statutory Instrument 215 of 2025, mandating that foreign-owned businesses in 14 reserved sectors (like salons, bakeries, transport, small mining) must transfer at least 75% equity to indigenous Zimbabweans by 2028, requiring annual divestment of 25% and aiming to empower locals, though raising concerns about investor confidence. This policy, effective December 2025, aims for local control in everyday enterprises, while allowing major investors in other sectors (banking, large-scale mining) if they meet significant investment and job creation criteria.

Key Details of the Policy:

Effective Date: December 2025.

Target Sectors: Hair salons, bakeries, small transport (taxis, buses), employment agencies, advertising, tobacco grading, artisanal mining, borehole drilling, pharmaceuticals, estate agencies, logistics, and clearing/freight forwarding.

Equity Requirement: 75% ownership for Zimbabweans.

Timeline: Phased divestment, with at least 25% equity transferred annually until 2028.

Exemptions: Large-scale mining, banking, and major international brands/franchises with substantial capital and >100 local employees.

This is likely to be the recent article (believe it was in the Herald) that Zimbabwe issued new rules requiring foreign-owned firms in reserved sectors to sell 75 percent of their shares to indigenous Zimbabweans within three years, The Herald reported. The regulations mandate a yearly divestment of at least 25 percent to ensure a rapid transfer of ownership to local investors.

The explanation was not based on accounting figures, it was period guidance differential explained by gold produced and gold sold. Two very different things.

John. I hear you, and we can all look back and assume the past is the best indication of the future, but with respect, I think what you are missing is that goalposts have shifted massively with the gold price. Not just at Dokwe, but with every single other Ariana asset. Then at Dokwe, If further ounces are discovered and the infrastructure and pit optimisation ends up lowering the all in costs, you have the huge operating margins. I don’t believe the penny has dropped with many, just how much the gold price has changed the landscape for Ariana.

I totally agree Strangerstill. We also have board members that are of a certain age that have significant share holdings. They will want to see this through to a point that gives them an appropriate return.

I can imagine Kerim also being deeply frustrated with the pace of the JV in Turkey. Particularly Salinbas. I have been invested here for 15 years or so, so I deeply share the frustration, however I completely agree with Slig, that the company has never been in a stronger position, with Tavsan coming on stream at a time when the gold price is flying, releasing the wider JV partners to now concentrate on Salinbas, and then we have Dokwe, which could become a monster of a deposit, again at a time when gold is flying. Without all the other smaller projects which are also enhanced by the gold price.

That is one view of course, and in your position as a long suffering shareholder I can see exactly you may feel that way.

There is however a chance that the board may learn from their clear mistakes and that undertaking further due diligence via the drill bit to give them the maximum chance to avoid a tricky partnership or major dilution. These guys are also of a certain age and have some serious skin in the game remember.

Thank you, John. I don’t disagree with you on the wider point, as I have been a long suffering shareholder like you for approximately 15 years. The purpose of me undertaking the below review was two fold: number 1 to demonstrate the massive disconnect in the share price, number 2 to see how the project economics looked. It is clear from .2 that they will have various Dokwe funding options, inc debt finance. Ariana (so far) has seen no uplift from the recent gold price increases. Surely that has to change once the wider picture emerges on Dokwe.. Essentially the 45 million market cap is a joke. There are many assets firmly priced at zero in this market cap.

Following on from the great work that Renniks has been working on, I decided to use AI to model Dokwe based on the published PFS data using two potential percentages for what the Zimbabwe government might decide to take from the business (15% best case, 25% worst case). I also modelled the Capex outflow over a two year period. This is what it delivered:

Spot Gold case – Gold price US$4,330/oz (current market)

At today’s gold price, the economics are extremely strong:

• NPV₁₀: approximately US$710 million (25% tax)

• IRR: around 70%

• Payback: about 1.4 years

• Total cashflow: roughly US$950 million

With 15% tax:

• NPV₁₀: approximately US$770 million

• IRR: around 74%

• Payback: about 1.3 years

• Total cashflow: about US$1.02 billion

Overall interpretation

• The project remains robustly profitable across all gold price and tax scenarios.

• Even at the conservative PFS case (US$2,750/oz, 25% tax), returns are well above industry averages (IRR >40%).

• At current gold prices, Dokwe would generate over US$700 million in post-tax NPV₁₀, with payback in under 18 months.

Smells like one of those aptly timed negative articles designed to aid some shorts closing. They always appear.

It’s just a copy of the headline from this article:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/london-oil-explorer-at-risk-of-debt-default/ar-AA1OjxHf

I’ve not checked in here for some time, but I’m assuming it’s the same green boxes that have been on this LSE Tullow thread for many years, despite not holding a single share in the company. These people (some with real oil sector experience) feel it appropriate to spend all day, every day on many share threads (and many other platforms) sharing their genuine heart felt concerns about companies that they don’t even hold one single share in. Are we to believe they are our guardian angels, working tirelessly every single day, to save us all from impending financial doom……..no we don’t. That’s exactly why they appear as green boxes. Good luck to everyone still genuinely invested here.

On a slightly different topic, what are peoples thoughts about remainco’s potential reduction in margins due to the uplift in cost that ingenuity may now charge THG as they are separate companies?

Thank you Stanley & TT. I will take another look.

Hi TT. Yes, I spotted that, but for some strange reason (in the corporate actions section) I only get to vote on the corporate action related to the shares in my trading account, and not my ISA. Which is a bit confusing, because in the voting mailbox (to which I referred below) I can vote on both my trading and my ISA accounts. Very confusing.

It would appear on the interactive investor website that shareholders are only able to approve the redesignation of ordinary shares and the distribution of the B shares.

So it would appear that you cannot vote for the demerger without opting to take the B (ingenuity) shares. So those wishing to maintain THG shares, must simply vote against or Abstain.

Am I missing something here. My understanding is that all the options people keep mentioning closed at 7pm last night? Everyone’s position is now fixed? (No options to choose)

You forgot to mention that unless you spotted the RNS and acted accordingly by circa 7-7:30pm, you missed out on all the options in any case.

Make of that what you will……..

The HSBC letter I mean.