RE: Shg10 Dec 2021 00:12
Why surprised by the collapse in SP though, Patryk? I'm pretty much in the same shoes as you in terms of being down after initially having been up on this investment, but I'm not very surprised by the collapse in SP, what is the share price supposed to do when you have a single-asset junior producer (which, for now, Shanta still is) and you correct the FY guidance for that single asset that you operate down twice a year? The beating the SP took on the latest update stings, but is somewhat understandable, as EZ really hadn't managed market expectations well there at all, emphasising in the recent presentation that Q4 will see higher production than the previous quarters so that they can keep the ambitious looking FY guidance. What's the price supposed to do when then mere weeks later it's all "Ah, but something unexpected happened again, sorry guys"?
The good thing is that structurally there's nothing wrong with the asset, that future outlook for NLGM looks decent and that the unexpected event earlier this year has led to de-risking for future production. And that none of the events that led to the falling SP have derailed the Singida timeline. The WK results are outstanding, and for many of us who plan to be in SHG for the long run a major reason for investing, but there's a lot of open questions about both the size of the resource and how to stem the capex to get it to production, so without at least a PFS, I can't see that driving the SP in the short run with all these unexpected complications.
There's plenty of reason here to be optimistic for the coming years, no doubt. But there've been several other UK-listed junior producers or developers who have been hit just as hard as SHG (or even harder) despite not having similar complications with their assets this year, so sadly the SP doesn't seem that crazy given the situation the company is currently in. But so be it, with the future outlook not hugely affected by this, it won't take all that much to get the SP back into solid territory, as long as EZ manages to credibly build trust with market again (this 3rd party issue wasn't a matter of a day or two, and it's hard to believe that he wasn't aware of at least the risk of it happening at the time of the latest presentation, he could have chosen to sound at least neutral about Q4 rather than overly optimistic), and as long as we can see them reach the upper limit of this new FY guidance and then have a problem-free Q1 '22.