Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Well, in the interview with Proactive after the RNS last time, Rupert said "We eagerly await these results and hope to see them by the end of the month" at the very end - so it already seemed at that time that it might be end of April, but might be May. With assay turnaround time in Australia being a huge factor of uncertainty still, can't really blame them too much.

Since it's factors out of their control that determine when they get the results themselves, the alternative would be to word it as "[...] are expected soon." Personally, I prefer them going for a specific time in the RNS, at least then we know when results will show up roughly, whereas with "soon", what would it mean? This month? In 3 months? Who knows.

Has EZ said anything about dividend lately? Haven't followed closely in the past 2-3 months, last info I'm aware of is that they wanted to keep paying the "regular dividend", but last year final dividend was declared on 2 March (and then the interim on 27 Aug), so would have thought we should have a final dividend announcement for this year already?

For what it's worth, BCB, I think we hold just under 2500 square kilometres now with the new tenement granted, not 3000 (at least that RNS you mentioned from May last year stated that with the 536 sq km from the new application at the time - and the one that was granted today - Wudinna would extend to ~2500 sq km; unless other exploartion land was added since then, but don't think so). But if the new application gets granted as well, that land package will be close to 3500 sq km next year

Shows as just north of Kimba for what it's worth
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/1791I_1-2022-4-12.pdf (map at the bottom)

Pretty sure that must be the one that was granted today given both 536km^2?

Right of field RNS in this case, given location of the new tenement

Very nice to see Rupert and co already thinking about 2023 exploration goals

Great news today, and with all the other assay results still in the pipeline, the question really is what will happen first, 50m market cap or Rupert pronouncing praseodymium correctly and not calling it "presidium" in every interview?

Key sentence for me in the presentation was when Rupert said about the work programme "This is the minimum the company commits to [for 2022]", so they might even add additional activity to what already looks like an ambitious and focused plan (very glad they choose to focus so heavily on the REE here).

Looks a bit silly where they mark mid, or the spread that's shown here, on Barclays bid/offer was 2.25/2.35 some mins ago and they show a spread 3x that width here and mid = bid? Doubt prices differ that much on platforms other than Barclays.

For what it's worth, I think you're underestimating the number of outstanding shares a bit in the valuation exercise, Richy.

1) The Third Qualifying Event is on the announcement of a JORC-compliant Indicated Mineral Resource of at least 750,000 ounces. So that has to be Indicated, so far the resource we have is mostly in the Inferred category, so not that likely we get this in 2022 given it still requires growth drilling and infill drilling?

On the event, the "Company shall issue to the Former Unitholders a further 30,000,000 Ordinary Shares"
(page 42 in https://secureservercdn.net/160.153.137.14/w32.3eb.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Cobra-Prospectus-CL-without-Refs.pdf)

So indeed, that part is roughly 7% of outstanding shares right now, but it really is a fixed 30m shares that will be created on that event, in my opinion more likely in 2023.

2) Warrants/Options outstanding
3p (expiring 2022) 67,543,461
Director options 0.15p, (expiring 2023) 672,336
Director options 2p, 3p, 4p (expiring 2025) 15,000,000

This is information from the company directly from a request via email.

So by the looks of it, close to 70m shares will be added at some point in 2022 when these warrants/options are exercised, then at some point 30m shares for 750k oz indicated resource, and roughly 15m right now expiring 2025.

Assuming they will only be exercised 2025, this would bring us to:

2022: 423m shares (as of now) + 67.5m (warrants/options expiring in 2022) = 490.5m
2023: 490.5m * 1.2 (let's assume placing in early 2023) = 588.6m shares + 30m shares (assuming 750k oz indicated resource at a time after next year's placing) + 0.7m (director options expiring in 2023) = 619.3m shares
2024: 619.3m * 1.2 (placing) = 743.2m shares
2025: going with your assumption of a buyout before any placing in 2025, 743.2m + 15m (director options expiring in 2025) = 758.2m shares

Reality is likely somewhat higher numbers than that, I expect more director options to be awarded some way or another throughout these years? The "bad" news is that there'll be more total outstanding shares at the end of 2022 than we (or at least I) thought due to the warrants/options, the good news however is that there's a rather small amount of warrants/options in existence right now that expires after 2022.

Hi Ken (if I'm not mistaken?), good to see you so upbeat, also on Twitter. Can you elaborate on the tin? I haven't noticed it in any presentations, but admittedly I'm quite new to COBR with first investing here in October.

Thanks Richy, that's good news if this is the only potential dilution left in 2022. And that bit of dilution i'd even be happy with if it means we have a 750k oz gold resource!

*expected to stay at these 423m for the next 12 months, to clarify my question

Does any of you who have been much longer in this stock (and on this board) have an overview if there's any more events left that would cause total shares outstanding to increase, e.g. warrants/options? Any shares that would be issues at the conclusion of Phase 3 of the Wudinna agreement? Or anything still from the LAM deal? Or is the number of shares now really expected to stay at these 423m after the equity raise we just had?

It's been a great week, and hopefully many more great weeks will follow here with potential imminent additional REE news and enough funds raised for an exciting exploration program for the rest of 2022.

Love the optimism and I think there's good reasons this is reacting as it is to the placing, as most of the issue seems to have gone to II given how it was run and there's little free float, so anybody with a decent-size holding here who did not want to get diluted had to buy quite a bit higher than the placement price dur to this. The future looks encouraging, given main market rules we can now be somewhat confident that there won't be much dilution for the next year, but the raised funds should make it possible to prove up the REE potential and define a resource. That - for me - is the main appeal here at the moment, it's exciting. Further upside potential from gold and IOCG targets, no doubt, but was hoping for REE to be the immediate focus now and it looks like they're doing everything right there.

Personally, I hope we'll see a gradual increase in price that is consistent with value, rather than getting overhyped and then inevitably crashing from irrational levels - GGP comes to mind, where even though fundamentals are solid, there definitely are a lot of disgruntled investors as well, would be nice to see a more steady, continuous, rational growth of Cobra to maintain a sanguine sentiment.

Still gotta question Andromeda's PR somehow - this detailed report is nice, but how is it that it's almost impossible to find any information about Wudinna on their website? Nowhere to be found in the projects section, neither are gold or rare earths to be found in the products section.

Why wouldn't a mid-tier mining company shout it from the rooftops if they have a JORC resource for gold and very encouraging drill results for elements on the critical metals list? Surely their (potential) investors would be interested in that information? Oh well, be that as it may, it's nice that Cobra are usually actually pretty good at giving regular updates

Surely the necessary capex influences the value of the 5% as well though, so if they conclude the value of 5% of Havieron equates to 4.3p/share, and GGP is getting that as cash and still has 25% left, a price target of less than 6 times their own calculated fair value for 5% is borderline absurd.

They're having a laugh there with this statement, don't they?
“We attribute a value of US$228mln to the 5% share in Havieron; 4.3p/share," with a price target for Greatland of 24p.

I mean, I can see 228m as valuation for the 5%, fair enough, so 4.3p/share for 5%. So we keep 25% + receive 5% as cash, would imply a price target of 6 * 4.3p/share = 25.8p for the cash + 25% in Havieron, that means Berenberg attribute negative value to the entirety of the other assets to arrive at that 24p price target? Wowee

Ah great, all eyes on 20th Jan then, thanks for flagging that event!

But on which platform is that the actual spread shown to people? I traded some of it on Barclays in the past week when bid/ask showed here as 1.20/1.40, and share price at 1.30, but managed to get several buys at just below 1.30 (admittedly most of these days they showed around 1.35 bid) and tried to see what it quotes on a sell and that was 1.22 at the time.

I'm not sure what the actual spread shown now is after the share price increased, but have to say 1.22/1.3 was a pretty decent spread for a company with (too?) low market cap.