Member Info for Shedulike

The mcap does look very low. I have discussed on another board the extraordinary anomaly that GGP which is years from revenue, with only inferred resources and facing high capex operations even if feasibility studies are successful has a mcap nearing £1.5B. Compare to POG even allowing for the 'Russian Discount' we're an established producer with massive proven reserves plus the most advanced POX hub in Russia, plus exposure to a strategically well placed iron or producer (iron ore did another +4% today) with a mcap £1.3B. You often here people say on these boards that the market is never wrong but look up famous quotes from the worlds most notorious investors and they don't seem to think so.

rusty - I can understand your point, they could have acknowledged it but as you rightly say they couldn't elaborate on the situation. I'm no expert on algo trading but could there be a risk that if you issued an RNS with the words 'CEO' and 'embezzlement charges' it could trigger some computer driven selling? I know that sounds far fetched but I was in Sound Energy when the US company Puget Sound Energy was involved in an environmental accident (from memory), the SP crashed at the same time either from algo trades or human error, I can only guess. SOU recovered the next day....... and later crashed on its own accord :)

I have traded silver CHRI5P though it is risky if you're not if front of a screen all day every trading day, the market is also open at night of course so you need to have plenty of margin if you're confident long term or manage your stops carefully. I have also learnt that it can behave illogically - for instance the first vaccine news walloped silver much harder than gold.

I can't deny that LR is failing to sell this to many PI's. However when it comes to selling a JV opportunity or maybe complete sale the buyers aren't going to be dazzled by the quality of the performance but by the fundamentals. In the last year the team have delivered the building blocks to prove this can be economically mined and that gives me confidence. In this market PI's do seem to want to be sold a story so I concede that it's a possibility that a slicker communicator may have added support to the SP artificially and as is often speculated had that happened dilution could have been reduced, we'll never know for certain but if you want a circus act then EUZ is definitely not for you.

With reference to the heading 'fool' I'm still waiting for you to explain your position Gam. I don't mind being a punchbag for hacked off investors but at least have the dignity and wit to explain yourself.

Great year predicted for silver trade. Personally I think they're leaning towards JV but they want to maintain independence until we have the PFS, perhaps because suitors just have too much leverage over us until we have that independent recommendation that this is a mine. Some noises about the BFS at the AGM and Conrad's work do make we wonder if they believe they can advance the project perhaps with a combination of off take deals and the bank, so hopefully there will be options.

Am I the only one to think everyone's being a little unfair? The forensic review isn't complete and they can't say anything about Pavel for obvious reasons. I see it as reaching out as a New Year's message, unfortunately there isn't much they can actually say at this stage so not terribly exciting but at least it's communication.

Okay I'd hoped for a bit more flesh on the bones Gam but I'll work with what I've got. I assume you're expecting another dilution then? Well we can't rule it out but if we were to run out of cash would you rather we went went bankrupt or have an equity raise? Nobody wants dilution but it isn't a given that one will be successful - at least we know an institution expects to make money off 12.75p. I regularly talk about my concerns as well as the positives, Gam could you return the favour and detail the reasons that you're still invested despite a possible dilution, assuming you are invested?

....... I'd change the subject heading as I don't think we'll be getting Gam's analyst coverage as challenged after calling me a fool :) Just something else occurred to me after reading CHRI5P's mention of GGP (genuinely not wanting to annoy any holders you've done very well and it might yet get better) but I really don't think we're yet getting any value for our location. Mines in the middle of nowhere like GGP's and POG's who I mentioned earlier, different ends of the thermometer but both have to build accommodation for workers and bring in workers on extended shifts. We're in the perfect place for infrastructure and a mining tradition in the region. I think these factors will increasingly deliver value for us as long as this story emerges from the hundreds of exploration fairytales and an actual mine continues to become more and more likely.

Interesting article on Mining Dot Com about China looking to improve its iron ore supply security:
“China will accelerate construction of large iron ore projects in West Africa and Western Australia,” the MIIT said, adding that cooperation would also be strengthened with resource-rich Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Cambodia and other neighbouring countries".
I assume the ore IRC already supplies to China is on private contracts but this seems to suggest deals at State level? Must be attractive being on their doorstep, the biggest iron ore operation in the Russian Far East, with the Amur Bridge being (as ever) about to be operational :)

Agreed rashariati - just one example, the UK government PPI cronyism scandal is jaw dropping: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html

You too 1noise. Fortunately the 5p RI gave most LTH's a fair opportunity and I suspect most like myself are sitting on a healthy profit now, though it has been a long haul. Something of a miracle as without checking I think my highest buy price was around £8 back in the day. It's encouraging that we are now in a much stronger position with POX than when the SP peaked, though of course there is much more equity swilling around.

Yep Happy New Year Pogsters. Personally I think providing the new Board prove they are here for the shareholders then I don't see why 2021 shouldn't be better. IRC should be making hay at the moment with iron ore prices so high, though there are rail issues affecting supply. Once the Pioneer flotation is online we'll be fully exploiting POX and the gold price is expected to remain high. Fingers crossed the forensic review transparently demonstrates why Everest and UGC stepped in to change governance and we can have confidence in the new lot.

Haha Mailgirl - well balanced post, perhaps a female adjudicator might be a good idea on this board :) Yes, you usually find on all boards that things get a bit more cuddly when the price goes up. I have two more absolute certain barometers to measure SP performance. 1) If under 'Latest Share Chat' on the left hand sidebar you see "Mm's" mentioned you can guarantee that the SP is going down. 2) A rise in any particular SP is not proportional to the volume of buying but the frequency of use of the term "Buddy". Haven't seen it on here for a while though, see what I mean?

I'll say one thing for positiveenergy, the LSE New Year Awards - category: 'Most Ironic Nickname' must be a foregone conclusion.

I'm not 100% on this but I think I read somewhere that the third party concentrate was needed not only as potential earner but to fill the hole left by the incomplete flotation plant at Pioneer, so it was operationally advantageous to get all four autoclaves running simultaneously. The concentrate yield can only be estimated prior to processing so some of the third party supplies may have underperformed for all I know. I see however it says in the Q4 report "recoveries of 94.9% in line with expectations", but importantly the POX Hub is operational and ready to process all our ore when both flotation plants are complete and they're considering autoclaves 5 & 6 for further third party processing so they must believe it to be profitable. As Rusty says RB's post assumes that all the ore purchased has been processed and sold and I can't see where that has been confirmed, wouldn't it be highly unlikely that all of the $US74m 3rd party concentrate purchased in 2019 would be processed and monetised in time to be reported in Q4 2019 accounts? Not saying for certain there hasn't been any chicanery, the actions of the current board would suggest they believe there has but I can't see definitive proof that the third party ore purchases and sales are part of it. I suppose if there have been dubious practices this part of the business would present 'opportunities' but for now unless anyone can prove that all the ore bought in 2019 has been processed and all income from that ore received and reported then it is surely just speculation?

Yes Judge there are easier ways to nobble a greyhound! Not a nobbling but as a lad I was at Walthamstow dogs with my Great Uncle back in the day. I think he went to get a beer and immediately an elderly 'tipster' sidled up to me and whispered (can't remember) but let's say "Trap 5 lad, trap 5" before disappearing. When my Uncle came back I told him and he explained that he would be looking for six targets who look wet behind the ears and tip all six traps. All he has to do is remember which target matches the winning trap and the lucky young punter will be hassled for a cut. Not a definitive scam but as my Uncle said anywhere there is money there will be deception. Never forgot that.

I hope it's not the same case as happened in Sheffield where a greyhound betting coup was attempted by attaching formica to the base of five of the six traps. Not surprisingly officials spotted the slippery insertions so we'll never know if it would have worked. Almost ingenious.

No I haven't filtered you pe, these boards are obviously an imperfect way of communicating as we're not always logged in. Some days I'm in front of a screen, some not, some a bit of both like most people. Anyway I think you make some good points at times though I don't admire how easily your sentiment has crashed in four weeks when nothing has changed. At least your posts show some level of analysis, I filtered Bobby because frankly is was the same monologue for the best part of a year and without any kind of informative contribution positive or negative what's there to read? I don't have a 'as we stand' personal valuation as such but look at the independent financial metrics that we are all privy to such as the EBITDA of $US471m. I also wouldn't dismiss the TP valuation of £16.9m as realistically achievable in the near term. Looking at peer comparisons I believe it is perfectly possible we will be a £100m mcap company if work goes well when we reach the PFS, if the metals markets continue to be strong maybe much more. What my share of that will be depends on whether there is more dilution or if a non-dilutive deal is possible how much of the asset goes to a partner or diluted in pre-production off-take deals. There's still much that could go wrong - we could have a disappointing drill campaign, we could hit a hydrological snag with the River Sil which is unlikely to be terminal but could hit CAPEX and op costs if it needs constant mitigation, metal markets could crash and so on. On another point I don't see the number of companies in your portfolio as a reason for holding one that you think will fail though I see in your last post that you think we're undervalued. I would point out however that being undervalued isn't a guarantee that the value will ever materialise so unless you think this management can continue to deliver I still think it would be illogical to hold. Hope you don't still feel ignored :)

Like you say Mailgirl I'm sure all AIM investors / traders have bitten the bullet in other stocks and sold at a loss when confidence has gone. It's hard but the only logical course of action. I am still yet to hear a convincing lucid argument for leaving any capital at risk if you have lost belief that it will come good, "I'm so far down I might as well not bother selling" doesn't cut it I'm afraid. I would salvage the last pound if I thought it was failing.