Member Info for ShearClass

Good news on Thacker pass, suspect the RNS tomorrow morning will take this through 60p. Smart money loading up today post LAC's news release which confirmed that the initial interpretations of the judge's ruling were on the ball.

Ah, so the traders like Clairesmith have been spiked, what a shame.

"fact is, the company has £6m cash and getting a $150m payout from Samsung, they have relocated to a new low-cost production facility, and they have 2 new infra-red sensing materials coming to market."

Nope, they'll get about £60m, but most of that won't arrive until 2024. I expect the share price to fall to ~20p as reality sets in and traders throw in the towel. Valuing this at just above cash / net assets makes sense until they can prove that they can turn a profit, given they have no long term licensing income from any TV sales.

So about £75m net proceeds, minus £4.7m in CLN interest and then minus tax (I’d estimate 10%), so you’re looking at ~£63m, equivalent to 20p a share.

I’d say it’s a pretty awful deal considering it global & for past / future IP rights.

As for half now & half in a year, well that just takes the **** given the resources at Samsungs disposal. It also suggests that Nano won’t see any financial benefit in the near term as they need to pay £47m lawyers fees & £4.7m interest, so they are left with ~£9m net of fees pending the second tranche arriving next year. Wow.

Nope, got 110k in 2 chunks at 3.1p, 8.27am...

Yep, 3p a share dividend and a few minutes ago you could buy at 3.1p... I fully expected it to open at 4.5p given that's the total of the dividend + retained cash in the business post deal. Market makers know there will always be sellers though, so why not take advantage of them and let their mates get practically free money?!

£20.6m turnover for just £0.5m adjusted EBITDA leaves a lot to do in H2 to achieve expectations. They need £22.4m revenue and £3.4m adjusted EBITDA. My guess would be a narrow beat on revenue and a miss on EBITDA, with FCF negative (see falling cash balance).

Oh and the suspect volume spikes seen in this share + public sector contract wins mean I'll never touch it - if bad news ever lands you can be fairly sure it'll be preceded by a plunge in share price...

Looks overvalued at £40m market cap and likely ends up the same way as TPX Impact in the long run IMO.

AIM investors seem to have a really hard time understanding share based compensation. It comes in many shapes and forms and as time goes by you should understand what they mean.

1. Snouts in trough / this is a lifestyle company = annual options awarded to directors with an exercise price of nil, these normally vest over a couple of years with no disclosed hurdles. It's free money.

2. Snouts in trough but trying to pull the wool over your eyes with spurious hurdles; the board will have normally presided over significant destruction of shareholder value but try to look fool PI's by creating ambitious vesting targets for a small portion of their shares, with the vast majority vesting at current, heavily distressed levels. Common on perennial AIM failures.

3. The most common are options that are exercisable at the share price on the same day they were issued, vest in a straight line over a couple of years and are tied to share price performance or EPS growth. Usually for grown up companies that make a profit.

4. A small % of companies issue options with strike prices well above the current share price to try and signal that in their opinion shares are undervalued & they are so confident of that fact that they'll agree to a higher strike price. That's what we've seen from ALL today. Shares have to rise 50% for them to be in the money and 100% for them to make anything of note in a takeover scenario (i.e. 1 years salary). For them to earn 100% on those 60% options the share price needs to do 200% from here...

If you can't discern the difference then maybe investing isn't for you...

Nice 10k / £145k buy just popped up from a couple of hours ago, explains the strengthening bid & ask this morning. A couple more like that would likely see the price back over £15 and marching upwards again :)

Not for me; https://lbndaily.co.uk/angry-redx-hits-back-liverpool-council-pushed-administration-2m-debt/

No public authority should cause a cancer biotech to enter administration for a loan that is quite frankly peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Either way, it's water under the bridge now though, another British asset that's lost it's crown jewel to the Americans...

In the present REDX is heading below 50p again... not much support below here with the next obvious point being 35p from Aug 2020 followed by 20p. With a confirmed placing in the pipeline it will be interesting to see where it goes.

A short report doesn't need to be a slam dunk at first release to have terminal consequences for the targeted company. If the IPO has all been a long planned charade to allow insiders to cash in (e.g. Angela Bacares sold 6m shares in the TR1 on 18th January) and revenues + margins have been artificially inflated to justify a tech stock valuation then this could be trading for less than cash in a heartbeat. An interesting one to watch unfold from the sidelines...

I wonder if JD uses Darktrace?? It certainly feels suspect to have a sustained sell off / short attack like this on no apparent news.

I guess to reassure investors that the fall has no substance? It's obvious that one investor is selling at present, Friday saw solid buying but it was offset by a 25k sell at £14.25. Once the seller stops / clears then this will rapidly rebound IMO. Results on 6th March are only 5 weeks away so should be a solid catalyst.

Once you start digging into the US exchanges you realise just how much competition is out there for DARK to beat. The common theme seems to be that DARK is world class but it's also expensive vs competition, so it'll be harder for them to convert free trials into paid contracts in the current environment & there is also a heightened risk of existing customer churn.

Volume is unusually high this morning and combined with the large fall suggests someone is bailing out, there is a 250k sell on the order book at 246p and another 250k at 250p, so whoever it is not done yet. Highly doubt it's shorters at these price levels but you never know...

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/us-fda-approves-jaypircatm-pirtobrutinib-first-and-only-non

"Lilly will market the drug, available in the “coming weeks,” for $21,000 per 30 days of therapy at the 200 mg dose, a spokesperson told Endpoints News via email."

Such a shame that REDX won't receive any royalty payments for a drug that was once their lead programme. Good old Liverpool council...

Were preparations for a US IPO already known about? This raise has the feel of a crossover round prior to a full US listing…

“US Buildup (approximately 5%)
o Build medical and regulatory capabilities in the US
o Build IR and US IPO readiness functions”

Fingers crossed - the gross margins alone would have it on the radar of many I suspect.

Appears to be a big seller at the moment, bought an opening position and will add more if it gets to 1400p... It looks very cheap to me. There appears to be quite a few US based private competitors and I suspect a PE bid could be a real possibility and the current price suppression could be part of any bid strategy (so they can claim a larger bid premium).

Gross profit as per the last set of accounts was $142m, operating expenses use $124m of that figure. Looking into more detail at the opex, it breaks down as;

Sales & marketing - $15.3m - could be eliminated by an acquirer combining it with another entity
Client servicing - $17m - could be heavily reduced by an acquirer combining it with another entity
R&D - $37.5m - could be significantly reduced if acquired
Admin expenses - $20.3m - again could be heavily reduced if combined with another company

That's a total of $91.3m, if a PE fund came in I reckon they could eliminate at least 50% of the above which would take adjusted EBITDA to over $100m and PBT likely over $80m.

Based on those assumptions, I think this looks incredibly cheap at ~$700m enterprise value...

With gross margins at >85% and $380m in contracted performance obligations at 30/06/22 I think you could easily make a case for this trading at double the current valuation.

Yep, I did note his background, I also noted that he was an earlier investor in Purplebricks alongside a certain Neil Woodford... ;)

I've just been having a look into this company as at first glance the NAV performance looks far too good to be true. My honest opinion is that something as opaque as BOOK shouldn't be listed on the LSE, you can't see any financial information for the private companies held & the methodologies behind increases in NAV aren't provided.

BOOK own over 50% of RCI Group which is worth over 25% of it's supposed NAV. Could it genuinely realise that stake in a sale? I highly doubt it. IMO it's NAV should be discounted by at least 50% due to this fact alone.

Basing NAV on stakes held in small listed companies is bad enough (illiquidity etc) but holding private entities that nobody on here has heard of and aggressively increasing their valuations in the current environment seems absurd. It's different if the stakes have been taken as part of a large funding round in companies that have been valued by multiple parties (i.e. Molten Ventures), but this clearly isn't the case here.

Only 2 market makers provide quotes to buy or sell so the shares are exceptionally thinly traded, personally I wouldn't touch them with a 100 foot pole...

To put this morning's results into more context, below is a link to the worlds highest grade copper mines. For underground mines, average grades of 4.1% make number 5 on the list... so the 5.4% intercept over 33m is truly world class.

To have 3 holes of average 61m @2.87% is probably the best I can recall seeing, certainly from anyone on the AIM.

https://www.mining.com/the-worlds-top-10-highest-grade-copper-mines/

The key question is how big the high grade area is? There are some true monsters out there and Gilar has huge potential based on ~21 drill holes so far, it's no wonder the team are 'very excited'.