Member Info for ShearClass

From the reading I've done, registration rights simply mean that the shares are registered with the SEC & are therefore available for the investor to sell / transfer. If they were unregistered then they can't do anything. I suspect this is caused by the dual listing & the UK being the primary listing. So nothing exciting sadly.

Nice to see the share price moving up steadily, closing spread in NYC was $3.23-3.30, so £1.34-1.37. Just need FDA approval and a material scaling up of revenues & things will look a lot better again.

@Charlie, good work contacting the company & clarifying no directors have sold - one look at the CEO's twitter profile would have told you that though, no chance is he selling at these levels. It's certainly bizarre though given the size of the trades.

@Simon1367, you seem to have fallen into the trap of thinking that red trades = sells and blue trades = buys, this is not the case at all.

A dummy trade 2 minutes ago confirmed that it's currently 59.05p to buy and 59p to sell, so at the current advertised spread of 59-60 every trade will appear as a sell. This is normally done to hold a share price in a set range / prevent PI's from buying (as most do seem to believe the buy / sell categorization on LSE etc, which is almost always utterly wrong.

https://twitter.com/CreoMedical/status/1622909325420204032

"January ?

Some highlights for #Creo in a month which saw record orders for our Speedboat Inject device:

?? High praise from Westminster and the Senedd https://lnkd.in/e9szUwgR

????? Dr. Amol Bapaye MD (MS), FASGE, FJGES, FISG, FSGEI presenting a fantastic Z-POEM case he performed at his Pune hospital with #SpeedboatInject, during a recent symposium in Thailand - https://lnkd.in/ee7AzWJp

?? 3 cases in quick succession from Dr Roy J Mukkada & his team in India https://lnkd.in/ee9_YnFA

????? Becky Smith, from East Kent NHS Hospitals, highlighting the impact Speedboat can have on nurses as well as patients, doctors and hospitals https://lnkd.in/eskEvH9c

??Training the next wave of French #SpeedboatInject users at the first fully French edition of the #PioneerClinicalEducationProgramme in Paris https://lnkd.in/eiBwJD2f

Plus many, many more successful cases, events, showcases and mentoring sessions completed around the world."

Looks like one of several things is happening here;

- Re-rate back to sensible levels in line with AIM listed medtech stocks; POLX = £80m cap, RENX = £110m cap, AGL = £75m cap, to have CREO sub £40m vs £400m this time last year was insane, regardless of the funding situation. I'd say £100m minimum would make sense.

- Takeover by a US entity; with a large patent portfolio & scaling of international reach this was be a great add on for the likes of Procept, Intuitive or several other US listed medtech companies. Any premium paid could be very significant

- Capital raise at a significant premium to the current price - the last 2 raises in 2019 & 2021 were over £1.80...

Either way, at £47m cap it's crazy cheap.

Further, what I can't understand is why after the huge success of Elite Dangerous, Planet Coaster & Planet Zoo they completely abandoned developing their own IP in favour of licensing deals. Planet Zoo was released in November 2019, let's assume the mooted FY24 management simulation game comes out in November 2024, that will be a gap of 5 years where they have delivered very little of note. Why change something so dramatically when it wasn't broken?

Good post StanAccy. Based on the anaemic to non existent pipeline I don't see much chance of them hitting the £113m revenue / £37m EBITDA target in FY23, or even flat on wherever 2022 finishes. Their first shot at an F1 game has been poorly received and appears to have created negative sentiment in the gaming community. At $55 you have to wonder how many will bother with a 2023 title unless it receives rave reviews?

This is a good read on what makes a successful licensed game; https://www.gamesindustry.biz/unlocking-the-secrets-of-a-successful-licensed-game

IMO it's clear that the F1 effort failed because it wasn't fully finished in time for the launch slot & there was zero room for manoeuvre so they had to release something half cut. Maybe they'll learn the lesson for 2023 but they are on the back foot now.

Their first Warhammer game has also faired poorly in comparison to recent Fatshark versions and at rating of 79% again doesn't really cut the mustard for long term success vs previous entries. My suspicion is that the second attempt will perform in a similar way as it's just not FDEV's forte.

Frontier foundry appears dead in the water, you have to question whether it's had sufficient investment and whether cutting it after just 8 games is foolish, especially in light of the yawning gap in larger titles.

So that leaves the FY25 "own-IP creative management simulation game." as the next realistic catalyst, although no clue yet if it's H1 or H2 FY25. In the meantime if things play out as I suspect, there is at least a year of flat to declining top line revenue... it's no wonder the share price is still falling, under £3 could be on this summer if nothing changes, it feels like an easy short.

Yes, it's a regulatory requirement, given that one of last weeks trades was 7.5m shares / 3.6% they are going to have to issue something. The only excuse could be that the seller hasn't finished yet which may explain why there were dumps late this afternoon...

Interesting post SB, I'll have a look and see what I can find - agree there is definitely more to this financing than meets the eye though.

It's a shocking RNS IMO. Absolute amateur hour & an example of what PI's are up against with these type of investments.

Firstly, I don't understand why they would flag that more cash will be needed in the next 15 months rather than simply get on with raising cash now so they can roll out more aggressively? It's completely logical to raise an extra £10-15m post FDA approval.

Secondly, the share price has fallen back because based on AIM history any company that issues an RNS like this will end up raising capital at a much lower price than present. It'll get shorted & uncertainty will plague the shares until they are properly financed.

Finally they drop this bait;

" The Company anticipates converting 9 research sites to FDA approved configuration and clinical use, selling 75 to 100 Xenoview Gas Blend cylinders and 15 to 20 Polarizer systems over the next 24 months."

What does the above mean from a commercial point of view? What can the market expect from a gross margin perspective? What are their estimates around recurring Xenon sales from the 9 converted sites?

There is zero publicly available research issued in the last 2 years to give PI's the remotest clue of what to expect or value this correctly. Without news I think this breaks the bottom of the downtrend at 34p and heads lower. Maybe that's what management want? Otherwise why issue such an obtuse RNS?

Hmmm. A very interesting TR1 dropped a few mins ago, Jefferson River Capital LLC have taken 8.2m shares in the private financing, so just under 50% of the total placing value.

The CEO of Jefferson Capital is Hamilton 'Tony' James, who has a net worth $3.9b. Quite a big cheese by the looks of things with a long association with Blackstone, and retired last year from the position of executive vice chairman ;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_E._James

Quite notable for a company the size of RENX.

It does crack me up reading these comments at time. I posted at 9.33 to say that market makers were deliberately setting the spread so as to make buys show as sells. Nevertheless, you still get comments like "Todays steady trickle of sells seems to be reaction to the uncertainty"

The spread at open was 59-62 but you could buy at 60p, as this is below the mid price all trades will show as sells. All of the trades in the first hour were in fact buys - I had multiple quotes in this time period to confirm this fact. After that they adjusted the spread to 57-60 and it's 59p to buy again...

As for something serious going on, ask yourself this; if there was a problem then why would anyone be buying >15m shares at 50-60p? It simply wouldn't happen. It's a buyers market and in my opinion they have named their price and the market has been walked down to that level until they complete the transactions. TR1's will of course be key.

Since around midday yesterday the market makers have wanted all trades to be classified as sells & that work is continuing this morning. Logic says that this is because they don't want PI's to buy, i.e. it's a holding pattern. I suspect our buyer(s) and seller(s) are negotiating in the background to finalise the transactions that began on Wednesday & escalated yesterday, but lets see what unfolds.

The IPO was actually at 169p, shares ran up to a high of £3 at one stage in April 21. As per the admission doc there were only 2 funding rounds prior to the IPO with just 4 shareholders pre listing;

"tinyBuild has raised external capital on two occasions: in October 2017 from Makers Fund and in January
2019 from NetEase. tinyBuild successfully used the proceeds from both capital raises to accelerate growth."

Makers Fund paid $29.82 a share (£22.50 at the time) in October 2017 for 125,755 shares, equivalent to 16,325,514 shares post share split @17.3p. They sold 10,301,912 in the IPO so retained just over 6m.

NetEase came in a couple of years later at the equivalent of 43p, using the share capital figures in the admission doc we can work out that there were ~185m shares in issue at that time, so the post money valuation was back in Jan 2019 was ~£80m, which makes the current £120m market cap look too cheap.

The other 2 pre IPO shareholders were the founders who still hold over 100m shares. Whilst it's possible they are selling, I find it difficult to believe they would do so on the open market as opposed to a secondary placing.

Finally, Swedbank hold 16.8m shares with the majority bought in the IPO. Premier Miton took 9.5m in the IPO and Franklin Templeton are down as holding 10.2m shares at May.

Whatever is happening, to have 59m shares traded & finish up by 2% has to be a positive.

Made an attempt to break out past 60p but not happening just yet as the big transaction volume keeps flowing. TR1's will be very interesting when they land.

There was around 1m shares missing from being able to reconcile the matching pairs of buys and sells with the total NetEase held, another 500k has just dropped now & there was 291k around an hour ago. Potentially one more set of 500k's and that should be that...

P104 of the IPO admission doc is interesting
https://www.tinybuildinvestors.com/_files/ugd/df3962_92c3ea1727734ca0a8bf35f3d2f59b42.pdf

Netease invested £14.8m in TBLD in 2019 in exchange for 198,560 shares @ ~£60 each ($74.54).

Pre IPO there was a share split of 129.8-1, which meant Netease then had 25,778,352 shares at an effective cost price of 46p per share.

They sold half of these in the IPO at £1.69 each, crystalizing a huge return. I'm 99.9% sure they've sold the other half in the last couple of days to exit their investment in full. If they've received an average of 54p in total then there overall profit from the 2019 investment will be just shy of £17m, or an ROI of around 140%

Swedbank are the only other holder of more than 12m shares & they bought almost all of them in the IPO at 169p, so I highly doubt they would be dumping down here. Could well be that they have taken the shares from NetEase to reduce their cost basis, it would certainly make sense.

TR1's should arrive soon to confirm either way.

Have tallied up the trades between yesterday & today and we have ~11.8m sells and 11m matched buys, the biggest trades being the 7.815m this morning which matches off against the 4.6m and 1m reported at the same time + the 2.372m reported after close last night (with a difference of 156k). There is another 750k trade that hasn't been reported yet, and I suspect a few more will arrive after close.

Hong Kong NetEase held 12.9m so I'd suspect they are the seller, the positive news is someone has bought the whole lot at 50-55p.

They are generating significant positive operating cashflow, the problem is that is calculated before taking into account capitalized software spend. But yes, a decent amount of burn has been on acquisitions.

Either way, now we have major volume with ~16m shares traded at 55p in the last 10 mins... so we have a big seller & a big buyer. May well get a technical bounce when this clears.

They aren't anywhere near cash flow positive, cash burn over the last 2 years has been $68m! IMO someone is getting out of here before they need to raise more capital - at the 2 year burn rate of $2.83m per month they have enough cash to get to September...

It's only on a PE of 9 if you ignore the tens of millions of development costs that they are putting through the balance sheet. Including them it's a loss making company burning cash...