Member Info for Shaun_LSE

Hopefully 2300 will provide support now, it's the .7 fib pullback from the 22.75 to 23.87 run.

Well, nothing it going to change overnight, people have been smoking in Europe for 500 years. The NZ ban just failed, I have no idea how they'd enforce it in the UK. Plus look at immigration, over 1% of total UK population last year, incredible!

A lot of them will smoke. There is a lot of fear, and buy when other's are fearful I guess.

Yes, sorry, the bond ETF's I was referring to are going ex div.

BATS, even with dividends is pretty much under performing everything currently, and has been doing so for a long time.

EVEN CASH!

The VWAP even from JAN 2019 low is £29.21!!

If you adjust for dividends, it's £24.30.

Even with dividends, in real, inflation adjusted terms the current share price represents an average loss per share of 30% from the average price purchased!

Not only that, it's gone sell on the weekly MACD, it's sell on monthly and daily.

It's even underperforming bond etfs, which have had their worst returns on record.

Clearly institutional support is being reduced.

I unfortunately have a far amount of BATS in my portfolio, because I fell for the dividend and am down about 15% including dividends. Now I ask myself, sell now and buy bond ETFs on their ex div drop tomorrow, or hold? I think the former.

Looks like bear flag to me.

It's at a PE of 17. I'd not buy anything above 12, for something in this sector, 8-10. £21 is 200 month MA and VWAP since '90 bottom.

I did get a simply wall street email that said the EPS for 2024 estimate is only 46p! That's 20% of 2023s!

This can't be right?

"lack of investor appetite related to ESG constraints."

The general public owns over 22%.

2471 is the top of the gap. But who knows, new rallies usually start on capitulation like this. All weak hands have been stopped out, and a lot of people had buy orders ready @ 2350.

Here we go, the gap will be filled. This amortization is a tax write down, so more free cash?

FT had an article on it yesterday morning, because they purchased a specific US company this explicit impairment is necessary. Other manufactures can amortize their cig lines without it as they were developed in house. So they are all perhaps doing the same thing, but BATS has to announce it as an impairment, and we get this buying opportunity?

Well, all the small retail traders are selling while the big fish are buying. Just seen a 650k and 260k order, and some more earlier. I'm annoyed I bought at 2300, getting at 2250 would have been great. GLA!

Just whatever is cheap at the time.

This does look quite bad. However, bad news fades fast and we are seeing an ex dividend date in a couple of weeks.

Also, they just stated they will raise divi next year in sterling terms. Even at 58p that's 10% which I'll put into safer assets.

I did read on these comments a while ago why they were not amortizing the combustibles as they are being phased out. So this generally makes sense, but, also in 12 years their only source of profit will be halved.

I hope to see some SP gains soon as funds rotate out of tech they are now overweight in. Bought back the few I sold at 25.30. BATS is very cheap even relative to other tobacco stonks.

Yeah, look up "Psychology of a bubble".

We've just had the "bull trap" phase of the bear market rally, now there will be fear, then capitulation.

I'm long on 4-5% bond ETFs atm.

As FED says, if inflation hits 2.5-3% fed funds rate will have to drop, so we will see these long bond ETFS massively rally as the market tanks.

GAW is at PE=24, dividends are more than free cash flow. I'm expecting £38-40 and PE of 12 before I'd buy.

Also if EPS are 0.14 going forward, this gives a PE of 10.55 and a pay out ratio of 71%, which is quite high.

Any 100 mil buyback is 3% on the SP. Taking us from 131 to 135, but we are very oversold currently.

I think someone said they can't get more funding for new projects as their SP is under NAV.

Makes sense I guess to buy back, push SP higher to NAV and you get the 7% (7mil PA) return now.