Geopolitics3 Dec 2020 21:01
Lots going on here. This may be the first of a transformative 3 weeks for the company.
Thinking about the future this evening as the Western world looks set to end 2020 with the greatest fall in economic output in 300 years. Whilst China posts a year of growth.
The virus has weakened every single major economy and contributed considerably to the downfall of the only world leader willing to stand up to the Chinese. Like him or loathe him, Trump called it right on China and Obama and his predecessors' failure to do so will go down as one of the greatest foreign policy failures of the modern era.
The media is awash with news of China driving the global economy. From Africa to Ecuador, Chinese investment will look very appealing as all other developed nations seek to get their own houses in order before spending abroad.
Securing assets vital to 'building back better' will become a priority not just for major miners, but for national governments too. China has done this for years, but I expect the US and the EU to play a much more proactive role in securing the future of the metals required to keep industry going and economies recovering.
I wonder with his latest move, whether Nick Mather has overplayed his hand. Whether inviting the Chinese into the nest has prompted a shift in sentiment amongst BHP and NCM, and this AGM presents a good opportunity to oust him and secure Alpala et al for themselves.
Remember, China have a massive foothold in Ecuador already. Should Jiangxi be allowed to build a sizable stake in the company, they would be in an incredibly powerful position to become the preferred company of choice to build Alpala, Porvenir, Rio and La Hueca.
The leverage Jiangxi would have - essentially being an arm of the Chinese state - would be unmatchable. Push has come to shove for BHP and NCM. The next few weeks will be box office.
GLA.