RE: Why no bids yet...?11 Dec 2023 12:50
It's almost impressive that amidst the mindless ramblings as to why there is no bid yet, redknight fails to mention what is arguably the most compelling reason - the fact that we still haven't managed to renegotiate the IPA with the Ecuadorian government. As per the original terms of this agreement, we are around $200m short of what we agreed to spend on Cascabel exploration by the end of 2023.
Let's say a bidder is weighing up an offer of $1.5bn for Cascabel, which works out roughly 40p a share. The successful bidder would be buying the obligations in the original IPA, i.e. with the outstanding $200m liability. No major mining CEO worth their salt is going to want to have an extra 13% whacked on top of the price they're willing to pay for an asset. And that is to say nothing of the other conditions in the document which may also be subject to renegotiation, particularly as we are the ones trying to wriggle out of a commitment worth two thirds of our MCAP.
It hasn't been publicly addressed but this is invariably part of the mess that Caldwell is having to unwind to prepare the business for a sale.
It will be very interesting to see whether the Ecuadorian government goes on the offensive as the year lapses and we haven't held our side of the bargain. If they do we are in big trouble. Personally, I think that the pro-mining noise means we should be fine, and I'm hoping to see the agreement land this side of the AGM (as per SOLG's self-imposed EOY deadline).