Member Info for shandypants2

BTC now back over $9.3k which is a nice rise over last 24 hours. Maybe with a decent update tomorrow we might see 4p again!!!

thanks for the update YB. Very interesting read. At times i do question why i'm invested here so it's nice to see some sound analysis

i do like JW but always be a little careful with his tips. He's always very positive early doors but NEVER says when he sells out.
Buys cheap then there is a spike when he announces his new share so could even be scaling down now as he's c50% up in 1 week.
GFIN does have potential and new CEO is doing a decent job but revenue from these tie ups is less clear. I notice a larger holder has sold 1.5% today. You have to ask yourself why

imho the slight delay maybe because they also want to provide some H1 guidance re revenue and profit. This always takes slightly longer to pull together so an extra day is not a biggie.

Argo need to show shareholders that costs are under control so H1 guidance is a key milestone

great post ironman - my bad for US v GBP but you do know FX rate is 1.24 so c £40m rather than the 50 i stated, which is clearly just an estimate.

I assume you also think immutex is worthless as it has zero value on the balance sheet.

good find and cash now over £16m which is great - c£2m increase in a month.

With covid study CF reckons 12 companies intereste din the data at c£10m each. He is hoping 8 buy.

If we say a more conservative 6 buy ant just over £8m each (being conservative) that's still c£50m revenue, which would be a fantastic return

full year revenue was £744k as per accounted for year ending 31/12/19. However, this doesn't include potential one off payments which were reported separately and lumped in with the share sale of Skinbio.
I'll be delighted with £1m for H1 as H2 is always a better performer, and could do double H1

wow - Mark Ward now at over 7% as of 29/6. Guessing he's expecting decent results

YE was yesterday, so hopefully revenue and profit guidance will be released in the next few days - hopefully minimum of £13m revenue, which in the covid world is a pretty good return. DTC has been our saviour over the last few months, so it appears our customer list is providing value

good 1st post.

Why do u think the price has dropped since Jan despite BTC rising ??

mining margin is made up of a number of factors - the mining difficulty, the BTC price and the cost/efficiency of mining.

Yes we've had a halving only a month ago but efficiency has improved and the BTC price has improved too since end of last year.

It's too simplistic to just say mining margin for the poor share performance

Hi, just checked BTC price on 1st Jan 2020 - it opened at $7,194. On 30/6, today, it opened at $9,177 - so a 27% increase in 2020.

ARB share price was c5.5p on 1/1/20 and is now c 30% down.

The last 2 months the share performance seems to be woeful and doesn't seem to track BTC anymore. Part of this appears to be due to a persistent seller however IMHO a lot of damage was done due to YE results. £1.5m on wages when there are 7 employees is beyond a joke as is £168k on travel and subsistence.

Hopefully with June numbers CEO will give some H1 guidance too to reassure investors but full H1 numbers will be needed to provide evidence that new BOD are running an efficient operation . Sentiment will hopefully start to improve then.

Obviously a BTC price rally would help too

decent performance in light of covid etc but this is clearly a 1 brand company now.
IF someone want Redleg might as well bid for whole company - say £10m (80% premium to current market cap) as the other brands are pretty worthless ATM.

Amazon maybe BUT also to be sold in Boots - who are a standard bricks and mortar retailer. They will expect a decent margin

If this is potentially selling via Amazon and Boots at c£10 then that's £8.33 excluding VAT

Most retailers expect a 100% margin (between purchase and sell price) so let's say £4.20

Therefore, i would expect ODX to make a 100% profit too - so manufacture at £2 and sell at £4 ish - gives a £2 profit per test.

At 200k per week that's £400k profit or £20m a year . Assume this is UK only and excludes any other test sales.

https://rootsdoubleeffect.com

Roots is running a countdown discount offer ATM.

Simply type countdown in the discount code field and you can get up to 80% off - i just got 40% off so well worth it.

i think it is fair to state that European progress has been quite slow. I think this is partly as the regulatory label is restricted to a couple of conditions, Norgine are only selling in the UK and Germany (not the whole EU) and in the UK in particular to get doctors to recommend a drug you usually have to visit each practice independently.

Now the US label is wider and the market is much bigger - previously stated at over £1bn.

However, there are supposedly 25m people in USA who are iron deficient (for various reasons) and cost of a full year treatment of feraccru is c£1k.
So getting 1% of these people using feraccru could generate £250m and only 4% is a cool £1bn .

STX has previously stated 10% is a reasonable target.

The risk/reward at present is very compelling IMHO

Argo has never made a profit hence it couldn't pay a dividend to date.

As it should make a profit this year i think it's a fair question to ask after all the BOD has repeatedly mentioned providing shareholder value . Look at Fever as an example of growing the company whilst also paying an early dividend.

after reading some of the comments regarding what this company is i have to say i have a different take.

I started investing after H1 results last year (when a decent profit was recorded) and as the price has declined have built up a reasonable stake.

For me the business model is simple - mine crypto and sell the majority on or close to the same day. The money generated will cover all mining costs and also salaries and admin. The remainder is profit.

Yes some coins can be held back in the hope of appreciation but as of May trading RNS that is currently only 117 BTC which is less than £1m at today's price. Yes it could go up by say 20% but that's only a £200k profit.

Yes price of BTC is important and we all hope this will increase with so much govt funded QE in place around the world but with our simple business model i would expect Argo to make a profit based at BTC prices today. An increase in BTC is a bonus

Someone seemed amazed people had asked about a dividend as this is pointless for a growing company. Why - shareholder value is increased in only 2 ways - increase in share price as assets or expected future assets increase and cash returned to shareholders via a divi. If the company generates sufficient profit to pay even a modest divi then i think this will be well received. CEO mentioned divi at YE anyway so it is clearly on his radar.

IMHO the poor performance so the last couple of months is predominantly due tot he lack of profit at year end despite healthy revenue increases. The perception is that whilst Argo is making money it is all going to BOD via excess wages and expenses. Turning a H1 profit into YE loss when rev is increasing take some doing.

I asked a number of questions re 2020 costs as i think BOD showing these are under control will improve sentiment. The response was IMHO a little underwhelming. Travel costs will be materially lower - well as no one has travelled for 3 months not really a massive statement to make.

However, based on revenues and mining efficiency (which excludes hardware depreciation BTW) i am sure Argo has made a net profit in each of the 5 months to date. If June numbers are ok then that should equate to a decent PBT at H1 assuming BOD have kept wages and admin costs in check. This is why i am invested

hopefully that doesn't mean a placing is on the way - had £2.5m cash at 31/12 so hopefully this is being managed.

However, if it's to support a big order not necessarily a negative