Member Info for shandypants2

H1 end was 30/6. They have 3 months to produce accounts, so no later than end of Sept. Probably mid Sept i'd guess

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/926253/shield-therapeutics-analysis-of-data-from-aegis-h2h-is-strongly-supportive-of-ongoing-discussions-926253.html

Proactive analysis of re-analysed H2H results.
Clinically significant results at 12 weeks and outperforms IV equivalent at later weeks.
Considering IV is a one -off very high dose of iron that must be administered in hospital and can be repeated if a patients iron levels dip during the study and Feraccru is a single low dose tablet taken twice a day i think these results are pretty impressive.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/926250/shield-therapeutics-ceo-says-reanalysis-of-key-study-has-shown-feraccru-to-be--credible-alternative--926250.html

CEO on Proactive. As an ex CFO not the most polished of speakers but a decent interview.
At the end says he can't discuss details of US deal but remains 'confident'.

Was hoping share price would consolidate in the 120s plus after last week's excitement, but WTFDIK

IMHO i wouldn't be too worried about cash. I think this was poorly worded on recent rns (probably required by NOMAD) and this has created some uncertainty.

At 31/12/19 STX had £4.1m cash and they did a good deal in China soon after generating a decent upfront payment (despite the product not having regulatory approval yet).
In RNS on 21/5 it states cash at 30/4 was £10.4m. I suspect this is before 2.5m EUR milestone was repaid so let's say £8m to be safe.
In 2019 accounts general admin is £4m p.a and cash outflow in 2019 which included R&D of over £2m was £5.6m.
In H2 2020 STX has flagged that they will commence a Paediatric Phase III study and start formulating PT20. The former hasn't started yet due to covid and the latter is non essential and can be pushed back if necessary ( i suspect it will only start once US deal has been concluded).
Based on the above i think we have 18 month runway from 30/4/20 .

According to FinnCap US deal should have an upfront payment up to $50m and $100m in milestone payments.
Last Thursday's 40% rise will look small once this deal is confirmed.

Keep the faith

yes covid challenge studies and immutex sale/listing. Both significant share price drivers in the next few months.

Will be surprised if we are not 20p plus in 3 months time

proactive write up & Peel Hut comments. All good

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/926136/shield-therapeutics-supported-in-negotiations-with-prospective-us-partners-by-new-findings-says-peel-hunt-926136.html

KC was definitely full time - low salary last year was as he took role on part way through the year , although for a CEO his wage appears quite low, which is a good thing.
Hopefully a new CEO will be UK based, as KC was, as 90% of revenue is generated in the UK.
Australia appears to be c5% of revenue so seem illogical to have most of BOD based over there.
Let's see how next few months pan out - IMHO never overly keen when 1 person holds both the Chair and CEO role, even temporarily. BOD looks very light now that HC and KC have both left in the last 12 months.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/aegis-h2h-update-non-inferiority-at-24-weeks/27468

Edison reiterate the 326p price target, based on a NPV of £381m.

As stated below 5% of US market alone is an NPV of over £800m.

completely agree Corunna, there was an over-reaction to the intial H2H study issue and so a strong response was always likely when the data was independently verified. The data at 24,36 and 52 weeks was excellent and never in dispute, but sentiment is a powerful influencer. It is worth noting that a large % of IV patients had to have additional injections during the study too, particularly during the first 12 weeks .
I'm hoping we can now start consolidating nearer £1.50 than £1 and a decent US deal should get this to £2 plus.
The broker forecasts (£2 up to £3.50) are all quite conservative and don't take into account US upfront payment, milestone payments and Chinese market.
For the newbies please look at page 5 of this presentation from Feb 2020. 5% of US market is a NPV of over £800m. STX are targeting a conservative 10%. Highest £3.50 valuation has a US NPV of £412m.

https://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/STX-Corp-Deck_Investor-presentations-6_11Feb20.pdf

good find. With China mining so much BTC and much of it rumoured to be at zero electricity cost, as funded by the state, getting their % of BTC mined lower can only benefit the market as a whole. Clearly, i'd prefer this wasn't due to natural disasters and loss of life though!

yes something is definitely brewing.

Get financing sorted and then this could fly

a redx type RNS would be lovely indeed

now at 10.9%. This guy is a very serious investor. Hopefully bodes well for the future.

He's bought almost 11% since May - so has spent c£1m on IDP shares in the last 3 months.

More on the FinnCap £3.50 estimate is below ...

Valuation
We are leaving our target valuation unchanged at 350p. We use a DCF model to value
Shield Therapeutics, with Feraccru/Accrufer estimated to be worth £412m, which implies
352p per share. This target price, however, excludes:
?The potential value of European milestones from Norgine, which are dependent on
reaching pre-defined in-market net sales of Feraccru. These amount to €50m, of which
€2m is expected to be paid in 2022 on completion of a paediatric study (due to start in
early 2020) and approval of a once-daily formulation of Feraccru. The balance is
expected to be paid over the next 5-10 years.
?Any milestones from a US partnering deal. Given the size of the US market (volume and
price) and the fact that Shield was able to negotiate a licensing deal for Europe at a time
of financial stress that generated an £11.0m upfront payment with €54.5m of
development and commercial milestones, we estimate that Shield could receive as much
as $50m upfront with over $100m of additional revenue-based milestones in the US.
?Any additional development and commercial milestones for China as well as for other
markets such as Japan and Korea

Not only are there many exclusions to the above but a £412m NPV seems quite conservative IMHO.

I am sure there was an interview last year when then CEO stated at its peak Feraccru could generate £500m p.a revenues. Not sure if this is total revenues or just royalties to STX, but even assuming the latter at 20% that's c£100m to STX and probably 90% profit. If so that would make us a £1bn company.

On page 5 of this Feb 2020 presentation just 5% of US market (so ultra conservative) generates a NPV of £821m alone so this makes the £421m estimate very low.
Obviously DYOR but £4 in 2024 seems very likely to me.

https://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/STX-Corp-Deck_Investor-presentations-6_11Feb20.pdf

good find - covid end date is Sept. So hopefully not long to wait for news

Hi, thanks for your input, however, although this wasn't my calculation, i merely amended a few of the figures, i am now slightly confused.

Yes i agree brent -$21 is a better starting point but as RNSed by GKP breakeven is at $35 so doesn't that include all production costs plus admin/salaries etc? So i'm assuming $21 decuction maybe $10 other costs and $4 for internal production and admin costs = $35.

Totally agree forgot the 80% split to GKP so maybe best to use 30k barrels per day.

If i could be so bold could you provide say monthly estimated profit today at $43 per barrel and also at $50.

Thanks in advance

Thanks for the calculation - reminds me why i'm invested. i think you are being a little conservative. Previous RNS said profit at $35 per barrel and brent is c$43 at present. So that's $280k a day and c$100m per year.
If brent gets back to $50, as has been predicted, that's over $500k per day.

Obviously capital expenditure is not included in the above.

have to say i share Bronx's view. Cash has been an issue for this company for over a year as it has expanded so quickly.
Every company needs cash yet often GB is the first to tell us cash is fine, as he did repeatedly last year, then we had the discounted raise. The lacing in Dec was limited due to previous AGM agreed limits so that amount was never sufficient to fund 2020, especially as revenues are due to increase 300%. Extra money was always required and now we have it.
Skin is clearly close to announcing something big as it has fingers in a number of pies and this loan allows this to continue at pace. On the downside it is at 12.5% so not cheap.
Let's see how the next few months pan out.

FinnCap has a £3.50 price target base don quite conservative NPV from the US and Europe and exclude any earnings from China in this figure as the product is not yet achieved regulatory approval.
The upside here is significant.

FinnCaps comments on the US deal ....

Shield confirmed that it has had considerable interest in Accrufer from a
number of US-based companies, ranging from relatively small ones (which focus on single
therapeutic areas) to larger organisations (which span several of the therapeutic areas in
which Accrufer is relevant). Management is seeking a partner with the optimal
combination of capability and favourable financial terms. We still believe that the NPV of
any deal will be considerably higher than the current share price indicates, driven by a
significant upfront payment, commercial-based milestones and royalties on sales.

another good interview - he's doing what he said he would and new contracts are being signed.
Can see this steadily going to c20p with maybe a 7p special dividend by end of the year.