Moneyweek says (part 1)22 Mar 2014 12:09
The annuities market is going to shrink massively
I want to focus on the two biggest post-Budget casualties: Partnership Assurance (LSE: PA) and Just Retirement (LSE: JRG).
Partnership closed last night at 124p, down from 319p before the Budget, while Just Retirement closed at 145p, down from 267p.
Both companies focus on providing annuities – in particular, annuities for people with health or lifestyle issues. So if, for example, you’re a diabetic and you retired last year, there’s a strong chance that Partnership or Just Retirement would have offered you the best annuity deal in 2013.
As I said immediately after the Budget, I see both companies as ‘good guys’ in this industry. Until now, the large life assurance companies have made big profits by offering poor annuity deals to customers who already had pension pots with them. Sadly, too many customers didn’t realise they had the right to shop around and get better annuities elsewhere.
However, Just Retirement and Partnership aren’t big pension companies. That means that all of their customers have already ‘shopped around’, and as a result signed up for market-leading annuities.
A fair proportion of these customers have had serious illnesses such as cancer. Others have ‘lifestyle’ issues such as smoking or heavy drinking. (If you’re a smoker, you’re more likely to die young, hence annuity providers are able and willing to offer you a higher income.)
So are these businesses finished, as the collapse in their share prices suggests?
They certainly face major challenges, no doubt about it.
They’re in a market that will inevitably get a lot smaller – one analyst has suggested the UK annuity market will shrink by as much as 90%.
And you could argue that the poor health/lifestyle part of the market may contract by even more. After all, if someone is seriously ill, will they really want an annuity? Wouldn’t they rather just spend some of their pension pot before they die and then pass the rest onto their family?
A second challenge is ‘adverse selection’. Even though annuity rates are already very low, average rates across the market may fall even more thanks to Osborne’s changes.
Why? Because the people who are most likely to buy an annuity in the future are those with a long life expectancy (or incorrigible optimists). So long-lived annuity buyers may no longer be subsidised by those who die soon after purchase, making it even harder to offer decent rates.