Member Info for SGD27

http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/590c571a96c88f52933d0479

Well, Zak Mir likes us today : http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/7409/zak-mir-tips-sula-iron-and-gold-shares-to-almost-double-7409.html

It's not automatic that the SP will go up when the assays arrive, they need to exceed expectations. Trouble is, expectations tend to be get a bit feverish on AIM. Why the selling today, who knows? Maybe some people are micro-analysing the RNS's and notice that whereas RM said he was 'excited' when drilling began, today he's talking about things being 'very interesting' and 'particularly interesting'. (Not me, I hasten to add, and I'll be holding till the assays at least.) Maybe RM's excitement has just been diverted to his other mining company (SRES), which has suddenly perked up.

Ah, got it, thanks for the clarification. So they'd have to either persuade AIM that they really are independent, or sell some shares, or make a bid.

"the party will have a bigger slice of the cake, in excess of 50% of the equity" Hi Gamekeeper99, could you explain where that figure comes from? Anyone with >30% equity would be obliged to make a take-over bid wouldn't they? Or have I misunderstood what you meant?

I must admit I thought they'd make the decision about extra holes after the first assays came back. Various possible reasons for not waiting spring to mind : - the visual indications were sufficient - wanting to get on ahead of the rainy season - finishing the original drilling early and not wanting drillers sitting around idle or probably something else entirely. Anyway I don't see how this can be bad news. Roll on the assays!

Yes, with respect, n3m3sis187, I don't think you're right about that. Can you point to exactly what made you come to that conclusion?

My 'understanding' is quite basic. Have a look at the EMG RNS's : http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=EMG&share=man_group and you'll see they're buying MARL & shorting SAND. If the merger goes through then the MARL shares get converted to SAND shares, which they can use to close the SAND short (i.e. hand them back to replace the ones they borrowed.) At the moment this would make a nice profit, because the MARL SP is less than it "should be" based on the terms of the merger. However, they are taking a risk that the merger might fail, so in that sense it's more of a bet than a true arbitrage (which I think by definition would be risk-free). But as I said yesterday, on the MARL side at least they have the advantage that they now hold lots of shares, so they're the ones that get to vote! Hope this helps (and happy if others can shed more light). ATB

If the merger goes through, then their MARL shares get turned into SAND shares, which they use to close the short.

Just realised I forgot it's not only MARL holders voting, but also SAND holders (in the first instance anyway). So the argument might work the other way for them. (A complication is that we know there's been shorting of SAND, and whoever lends their shares to shorters loses their right to vote!) So perhaps John Cornford is right when he says "I wouldn’t be surprised to see rather more volatility developing in the run up to the vote". Anyway, too sleepy now for any more attempts to understand it. Goodnight All.

Many thanks, Mirabeau, very interesting analysis. A bit of a surprise at the end that he decided to take the profit, with the idea of possibly buying back if the vote is 'no'. FWIW my guess is that the vote will be 'yes', for a couple of reasons. Firstly, many of the potential 'no' voters seem to be the ones selling out, as they don't seem keen to own SAND shares. Secondly (and probably more importantly) it looks like the main buyers right now are the arbitragers. They will certainly vote 'yes', because that's what will make the arbitrage come to fruition. And the more MARL shares are seen to fall into the arbitragers' hands, the more confident they can be of success - thus creating a positive feedback loop! The fall in SAND SP (now ~20%) will partly be due to the arbitrage, but also partly because the price of gold has dropped ~3% over the same period. Does anyone have a feel as to what the gearing ratio for SAND:PoG ought to be? Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens if gold bounces back up. Here's someone who thinks it will happen on Monday : https://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/european-politics-have-created-a-golden-opportunity/5865 GLA

This time an interview with Proactive : http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/7394/ariana-resources-kerim-sener-on-significant-kiziltepe-resource-increase-7394.html

Try https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/590b0907a2161528fb636364/ariana-resources-tavsan-update

A couple of items today : This blog : http://www.lse.co.uk/blogs/member/stefania-barbaglio-blog/pq1871/ " Uranium: 'Opportunity Knocks'. Tue, 2nd May 2017 - Author: Stefania Barbaglio Uranium prices have continued to trend lower. Time to research the best companies. " NB The "best companies" include BKY! Also this interview on Tip TV : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md6ZLaUCrAs " Published on 2 May 2017 Stefania Barbaglio from London South East (LSE) discusses the outlook for top trending UK stocks on the LSE website – MySquar Ltd (LON: MYSQ), Berkeley Energia Ltd (LON: BKY), Ascent Resources Plc (LON: AST). Barbaglio talks to Tip TV Presenter Zak Mir. Watch the full segment for more info on the supply deficit in the Uranium market "

Here's another : http://world-nuclear-news.org/UF-Uranium-producers-prepare-for-market-recovery-02051701ST.html

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/27655/today-s-market-view-birimian-bluerock-diamonds-plc-diamondcorp-plc-bluejay-mining-plc-kodal-minerals-metminco-ortac-resources-ltd-solgold-plc-27655.html " DiamondCorp (LON:DCP) Suspended – Bond holders and AMCU union blamed for DiamondCorp administration • DiamondCorp reported its ‘notice of intention to appoint administrators’ at midday on Friday. • The company’s debt restructuring appears to have been frustrated by the lack of agreement with South African bond holders. • Protracted discussions with the AMCU union are also blamed. • The company is not able to settle a £1m equity fund raise as announced in early April and we suspect the group is now days away from formal administration. • The failure to reach agreement has caused all employees to be retrenched and that funding agreed with the International Development Corporation ‘IDC’ of South Africa is now no longer available. Conclusion: It will be interesting to see if the bond holders settle at the 11th hour. The moral of the situation is that it is better for companies to raise straight equity and not to seek more exotic forms of finance which make restructuring all the more challenging in stressed situations. "

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/the-commodities-week-in-a-minute/27644/commodities-week-in-a-minute-one-year-to-regain-my-dignity-plus-pdl-hgm-lom-fdi-aau-27644.html " Ariana Resources (LON:AAU) (Buy)*: Mariana deal highlights potential value at Salinbaş Now I don’t normally go in for the whole “opportunity next door ideas” but given the fact that Ariana’s Salinbaş project is roughly a very weak stone’s throw from the acreage Sandstorm are acquiring from Mariana, via their Hot Maden project for over £150m (January’s scoping study valued it at around $1.4bn), it probably means Ariana’s project is worth another look. Increasingly the “hot gold corridor” – (great name) which hosts the Salinbaş project and Hot Maden, plus many other targets, looks like a very exciting province and given Ariana already have a resource of >1moz eq one imagines things could get very exciting… "

The 'few pennies' is 28.75p. Just to keep some perspective, that on its own is a 38% increase on the MARL SP only one year ago :-) I don't think SAND will fall much further - at some point MARL sellers will stop handing free money to the arbitragers, won't they?

Just looks like the obvious arbitrage: short SAND, buy back via MARL - free money!

The SAND SP continues to fall, and this is hardly surprising: who's going to buy SAND shares directly, when they can get them more cheaply by buying MARL shares?! So the SAND SP goes down, the "true" MARL value therefore also goes down, and this leads to more MARL selling over here. It's a vicious circle! This will continue as long as irrational UK MARL holders are prepared to sell below the "true" value. Just my opinion, and I completely understand people wanting to bank a profit, but I'll be holding for the "true" value :-) GLA