RE: One off opportunity(?)27 Mar 2026 17:33
Not sure it went a slow as that Crossley (you may be right intra day?) but yes it did drop to low £17's very briefly, so must admit, missed that.
My views are based on a pre conflict price of around £28 and generally rising, of course there will be some inflationary impact for a while when the middle east debacle ends and personally I don't see this continuing for more than another month. Even factoring that in, a 10-12% drop from £28 would cover that adjustment IMO....That leaves us at £24.50 - £25.50....not forgetting that Bellway has a NAV of around £30 per share.
More generally, yes, I see prices continuing to rise, albeit slowly. The inescapable fact is that there is a huge shortage of housing and a commitment to build more. I mentioned earlier that my wife has worked at Bellway for a number of years and has witnessed all events good and bad, since 2007, however prior to Feb 28th there was a very positive view within the company....knocked slightly since then but there seems to be a pragmatic view that this is blip rather than a long term concern.
Personally I have sold other holdings to give me the ammo to build a decent position here, so far 5,750 shares but will look to double that over coming days and weeks whilst we are at this price or up to £20/21
There's no way I'd be doing that if my wife was coming home with tales of doom and gloom every day.