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I am sure many here can easily work out the new NPV8 for the project as it now stands with the updated MRE.
Below are the links to detailed PEA workings showing $366m NPV. Based on current Fe62% plus $31.25 V2O5 credit. Nothing for Tio. All costs based on runs rates published by JAN but with double the capex to allow for contingency.
Copy an dpaste the link to your browser and replace the hxxp with http and the link will work through to google drive.
Excel File:
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/1rLW-3gS3ZTvGgTlBWd2l1Q0yBSGVLKxx/view?usp=sharing
PDF Version:
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZDmRChFa_2gsb-2fd1fqrsSKPsJQykUo/view?usp=sharing
*probably fastest
Pleased to say I have stopped watching CHF. (Still watching Capella though) Seems a good entry point.
Expect to hold for multiple years - it is copper after all - it takes time.
VMS probably discovery to mine though.
Lets get those VMS clusters identified and a mine plan a go go.
Its Zimbabwe, look at CGH past and its associates and yes look at Esprey.
I did miss this when first picking out CGO and knowing its assets are in Zim, but I decided to hold.
In part because to get things done in Zim, how can I put this, you need experience and guile.
I hope he / they are innocent of wrongdoing and that they won't shaft CGO sh.
The risk reward is excellent however and that as ever is often the balancing act when dealing with small caps in far away places.
What are you asking me for? I'm sure you already know the answer.
The article is a reworking of better articles. Perhaps an AI did it.
VRFBs have very little to do wit Electric Vehicles - tow a huge battery around.
Also I think the V2O5 grade is a little low to warrant the separation to sell it as a separate product.
Fe with V credits seems to be the way to go.
So for me it is mainly about the Iron and the low capex as a result of good ore composition.
The tio and v2o5 can come later.
I was in KMR from the early days - quite a ride - Why is the capex so low for CMET and for KMR it was around $300m and that was over 10 years ago?
I am trying to figure out what is not to like about CMET, why they have got their numbers wrong and what is the bear case.
Concerns on the corporate side will continue until the company gets a new CEO or the role becomes less important to the companies success.
In the 'foreseeable' future it is all about mine performance. Grades and quantity of ore.
that's it.
Cash in from concentrate sales. Cash out in opex and capex.
To some extent paddling to stand still at this point is a success (cashflow neutral)
Any glimmer of cashflow positive....well that changes everything.
Seems a fair assessment. I read through the investor presentations since 2015 y'day. Projects appear and then just disappear from the list until all they have is BP. Last chance saloon.
People like a cusp though and so more people will be drawn in.
VAST feels a bit like RMM. VAST sh have been suffering longer and deeper though.
RMM had a complete change of Mgt at the top. VAST has recruited at the mine level.
If they have a mine I suspect the people now in place can make it work.
If only the BoD were brave enough to publish Qrtly production numbers
I wonder if the price of copper will have an impact - yes of course it will
If it is in the ground and the miners find it and dig it up then VAST BoD would have to work pretty hard to mess this up. It could be as easy as falling off a log for them as they have a good track record for that.
If it's not in the ground then the show is over.
The corporate action is a side show really.
Does Vast have a mine or not?
Ok here is a more likely and far simpler model of the Q2 PEA (In Theory) - see links at the bottom:
This is based solely on near term production of Iron Ore with Vanadium credits as per Q1 PEA. All the metrics are the same as already published by JAN in the 16th Feb Positive PEA for the Pitombeiras Vanadium Project RNS.
The Tio2 (rutile pigment grade product) comes later. We just sit on that UNprocessed product until such point the processing facility can be built without a diluting fund raise, alongside further exploration of additional targets to firm up a more significant ore body which in turn will lead to a further PEA inclusive Tio. This does have the potential for a $1b NPV but requires further exploration and deeper pockets.
Others more knowledgeable can comment on timing and quantity to be produced in 2022.
It is worth putting in the effort to do deeper research on JAN and do ask questions, do be critical and do assess the risk. It's not easy as JAN don't pay for the likes of blytheweigh to do sycophantic interviews and by all accounts JAN isn't PR focused. Which in itself is a good thing. I watch a lot of videos of CEOs talking it up or talking carp!
Anyone looking for a quick trade to make %'s here or there should skip past JAN now. Around 70% of issue is in sticky hands, relatively small volumes can move the price down as we have seen. As ever patience and time will be needed if you are to see multi bagging returns so few explo companies achieve.
The Q2 PEA should in theory be in the region of $210m based on NPV8. Mkt Cap £18m. No an unreasonable 10% ratio of Mkt Cap to NPV for an early stage project, but the capex (barrier to cash inflow) is very low. This project requires nothing fancy, not a lot of cash and is addressing a huge global market of which our product will be insignificant to. A fair value could well be a 50% ratio meaning circa $100m Mkt Cap - perhaps others can comment on that.
A small operation could be funded via a mix of 'off take', 'Local govt backed' and cash or any combination. The numbers are really quite small and the payback measured in a few months.
Watch closely for any Mining Licence news as that is the only factor preventing a much closer alignment of NPV to Mkt Cap.
Remember to change xx to tt - else the links won't work.
Excel Version:
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/1rLW-3gS3ZTvGgTlBWd2l1Q0yBSGVLKxx/view?usp=sharing
PDF Version
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZDmRChFa_2gsb-2fd1fqrsSKPsJQykUo/view?usp=sharing
Many thanks to Dcat for nudging me in the right direction and for sharing his research here without which I would have skipped past JAN. As it is I have been following for more than a year now. Fortunately I am able to buy and hold for years.
Ok I am getting mixed up between the 62% grade for sale and JAN FE content in JAN ore.
The Q1 PEA had 2,590,000 tonnes of "62% Iron Ore" from 5.5mt of ore mined. Based on 60% magnetite that's about 80% iron content. I suspect the low capex for Iron ore processing is in part due to the high Iron content in JAN ore.
I'll look at that again. I was able to balance back to the JAN numbers NPV8 of $105m - but perhaps with more than 1 thing wrong.
Cheers
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/1DR_HIrs5-iZQCXy2dVPRXGFQ_dUfD9oq/view?usp=sharing
Here's a PDF version
I'll do a PDF version.
This is from Q1 PEA RNS:
Total LOM production of 2,590,000 tonnes of 62% Fe and 25% V2O5 contained in furnace ****s
I used the 62% for the Iron content from there.
I have reduced the Tio recovery as I think some of the more recent results indicate less than 33%.
I did initially do a version based on 33%, but thought to be a bit cautious.
The cashflow is based on JAN PEA from Q1 + PLUS + the revenue from Tio.
DCat recommended 2 streams of processing costs - one for Iron and one for Tio - note the significant cost difference!!
2 Products are Iron with V2O5 credit (1 product) and Titanium Oxide (1 Product)
So no revenue for V as such - just an uplift on the iron ore price - in line with PEA Q1 guidance from JAN.
I have prepared a revised PEA based on 11MT of ore. We are certainly heading in that direction.
The document is available in the link below, it has a few versions and messy notes I have collated from JAN and Dcat. Initially based off of the Q1 PEA and then using notes published by Dcat I did a 3 product version, but that seems too expensive from a capex viewpoint. So most likely a 2 product Iron Ore with V2O5 credit and Tio route will be the final plan. No mention of Tio processing as yet from JAN however - awaiting metallurgy tests perhaps?
Tio recovery based on 40% of the ore with a content of 20%. Iron is 60% of the ore with a content of 61%
Most of it is self explanatory. Capex for processing the Tio is the hardest thing to estimate, along with mining costs associated with processing Tio. The Iron Ore processing & capex is already set out by JAN in their Q1 PEA.
NPV8 is $506m with capex of $100m.
The file is available from the link below - it is all a guess with parts more educated guess.
(replace xx with tt) The file is set to shared with the link below.
hxxps://drive.google.com/file/d/10rOSWnuQxwG7G9SIE_gJjbe8i_pi67Xm/view?usp=sharing
I hope it provides something useful to the board and of course it can be improved upon, not done this for mining before, but I have done a fair bit of research. It is an Excel document at the moment, if anyone can't access that then I can do it as a PDF.
Yes if we could process our non magnetite to a final product using a $25m capex facility we'd be awash with cash.
The Largo technical report from GE21 done in 2017 is not that helpful - but does show the process for the Vanadium and very detailed costs. In their first paragraph they state that the next piece of work should be focused on the other products and not just the Vanadium!
Be good to see a similar report - very detailed - dealing with the Feo, Tio and v2o5.
Largo must be working on that, but perhaps they don't need to publish anything anymore - they have their cash and can crack on with the job.
Link to the report here:
hxxps://s22.q4cdn.com/197308373/files/doc_downloads/technical-report/NI43-101TechRpt(MaracasMen)-Nov8.pdf
hxxps://largoresources.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2021/Largo-Resources-Approves-the-Construction-of-a-New-Ilmenite-Concentration-Plant/default.aspx
Largo Resources Approves the Construction of a New Ilmenite Concentration Plant
Commercial production from the new plant is expected early in 2023 and the plant's capacity will be approximately 150,000 tonnes of ilmenite concentrate per annum. The Company started an ilmenite pilot plant in October 2019. Based on the promising results, the Board approved construction of a full-scale plant. The advanced engineering and construction of the ilmenite concentration plant is expected to cost approximately US$25.2 million with the majority of these costs being incurred in 2022. The Company is also further evaluating the potential to produce titanium dioxide pigment as a possible follow-on product.
Cheers for all the info and your thoughts.
When the PEA first came out I thought they would never actually do that because of the value locked up in the concentrate and not even touching the Tio.
I am now getting $289m NPV8 with£125m capex and opex of $103 per tonne assuming sales of the 3 products (fe02 @ $150/t, Tio2 @ $1,200/t & v2o5 @ $8/lb).
11mt Ore body (doubled from the Q1 PEA of 5.5mt), 6 year LOM.
Agreed re the accuracy, but it certainly helps to kick thoughts around and what different scenarios will produce.
The revenue from the Tio2 is very significant - more so than the V2o5.