The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Picking up a few at mid 7p today
Anyone with a contact to the company may want to advise them that the web site domain and services account is currently suspended.
Yes same here. Focus is PM operation and much talk of Ni demand.
Ni mines cost hundreds on millions - Look at HZM circa $500m - lots of fancy processing for beneficiation.
The gold operation being heap leach and an initial open pit seems fundable for (guess) $50m starter operation
A simple mag sep operation for the Fe @ Lamaune seems the simplest operation, lowest capex and quickest to FCF.
Please someone prove me wrong or explain why this isn't a priority and put me out of my confused state :-)
Does anyone around these parts agree that Lamaune is the quickest route to free cash flow?
Perhaps $10m capex to handle magnetic separation of FeO2. The grade looks good enough, starts from surface.
Has this already been discussed?
TPKart,
I recommend watching this series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXqE82UIVVU
Then start ploughing through PFS, DFS reports of near production mines\companies. Then you get into metallurgy and recovery rates, overburden, stopes, VMS & VTM deposits.
I spent a good few months researching geology and economics of mining (mainly) before investing in mining stocks.
There's also a lot of bullshire about.
And so it was foretold by Tex!
There were also a couple of tweaks to the website just before this as well - BMc bio was amended slightly - nothing major as far as I could tell.
(I have the website on a monitoring service)
In 30 years experience I have never seen a loan note presented as cash. Current Asset yes, as a debtor.
A loan note is not cash eq. It is a Debtor, so part of current assets not cash. May even form part of fixed assets depending on the length of the loan note.
If you believe MM\CB etc - Arc staff have been arrested, Zamsort stripped of its LEL, SEL & SML, injunctions aplenty, the chief has revoked mining licence I could go on.
Share action action implies all this (or rather part of this) is true.
MM are spreading the worst kind of "news" and a fact or two across as many media outlets that they can reach, repeating the case details as it progresses through the High Court commercial division, news articles in Zambia across various publications.
Now this is being done with good reason as MM believes there is a case to answer and a chance to get a much bigger payout based on a interpretation of a clause in the contract that handled the sale of shares a number of years ago.
If the case had merit I would be happy to proceed with the legal remedy and not muddy the water by agitating across social media, if the case had little or no merit I would want to cause as much bother to Arc as possible to bring them to the negotiating table.
Truth will out, I do trust the Zambian legal system. I would be more worried if MM and Co were silent.
Any other takes on the situation?
Sorry if you have sold up having lost hope and or money. It was never binary. It always takes time.
But great that you've gone and new holders have joined understanding perhaps a little better what the plan is.
I'm sure it will be bumpy from here and the project still carries plenty of risk and big requirement for patience.
Ooops looks like they need to update their website data for the consol.
Is there any info about how deep these deposits go? I have read that are open in multiple directions, but not sure how deep JAN has gone.
Yes that makes sense, like we don't know exactly how this will be financed. Offtakers would expect a discount of at least 25% to spot price, perhaps more. But then JAN don't have to sell very much production to fund the project, so the impact won't be that great, so the majority of the sales will be at spot.
Not going to try and guess funding aspect or the price of fe ore for 2022.
It's all a bit of a guess. Many thanks for your thoughts.
I'll set out the calculation below:
My basis is the method used for the Q1 PEA, same capex, same operating costs for processing 600k ore to produce 300k of DSO product, same Internal and sea freight costs, latest Fe Ore price with same V2O5 credits.
300k of product @ 244.78 less 31.50 (internal Freight) less 25.00 (Sea Freight) = 188.28 (gross margin)
188.28 * 300k = $56.5m net revenue
Operating Costs based on PEA Q1 are $7.60 per tonne - I am assuming they will process 600k of ore
7.60 * 600k = $4.5m
Leaves $52m
Less all the capex $9.5m
Federal and State Taxes of $14.5m (based on $42.5m * 34%)
Corp Tax 15% base + 10% CT + 9% Social Contribution = 34% tax rate per Brazilian Tax Code
Leaves $28m
I think with a bit of inflation for contract mining, freight costs etc the year 1 cashflow could be lower. Also given the lower volume of ore versus the Q1 PEA cause the cost per tonne to go up a little. Upside could be V2O5 price has been going up steadily. The TM isn't the end game of course but it certainly demonstrates the quite unique economics of the project.
TM cashflow post tax (34%) and capex (9.5m) @ 300k = $28m per annum
We don't appear to have been promoted that much - so I haven't seen much ramping and pumping etc. Yes there will be traders and as the price starts to move even Brian and Luis will want to realise some cash.
David Burton - TMS has been posting about JAN and Brian did that interview with them. Is that paid for promotion?
On the basis he doesn't need to raise funds, it was surprising to see so much of Brian in recent weeks, perhaps he wants to let LT watchers & holders know that now is the time.
I'd like to think that tickup was my buy 36,048 @ 8.30 for my sons JISA.
:-)
All looking very tidy in Jangada land.
Don't mind if I do 125,000 @ 7.95.
Excellent prospects here
O21,
I copy the entire link, pasted it to my browser and changed the hxxps to https at the beginning and press enter, the file opens straight away, it is set for sharing with the link. Hope that helps.
NPV is $267m FCF is $366m.