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The last CEO lost his job (resigned) over this. It would be ironic if Inishkea now came in as it has the potential to far outshadow anything else on the cards. That message captures the gloom at the time - a very different dynamic is at play now - let’s hope we are finally coming out the tunnel.

There will need to be a well site survey first, which needs planning approval. This is the stage we got to when we had the unnamed Major company planning to farmin, before the election result killed off all investment in the area and the Major withdrew from discussions (RNS Jan 2020).

Whatever the rights or wrongs it looks to me like useful clarification of what Simon was saying - more than 50% chance of commercial success from Serenity, and not just of hitting oil - if I have understood that right. That sounds even better to me. I think everyone here from I3e and eog understand that in drilling nothing is guaranteed and GP has previously raised some of the geological questions that this drill will seek to answer.

So if I get this right they are so angry about the mess that they are conducting a review about whose to blame rather than a review into what to do about the energy shortage? Jaw dropping.

Just having a look at what Ryan has been saying recently and saw this in the Irish Journal

“There was a 17.6% increase in emissions from the energy industries sector, attributable to a tripling of coal and oil use in electricity generation last year.”

Well at least they stopped evil gas being sourced locally to take its place!

He held the post before in 2009-11, then quit the Government, who promptly signed off on the original Corrib project before the election. Let’s hope for a rerun - it’s the simplest way for him to avoid taking responsibility when things get difficult.

@Copper. I suspect it’s up to Egdon to provide the clarity and SO will need them to officially update on what’s happening in the JV. Like you I think timescales are looking tight based on what we know from past Wressle ops. If they are still going for a Feb gas production date that means planning submission, approval and works to be completed within the next 6 months. Perhaps they are confident of some fast track, but it would be good to see something go in to planning very soon.

Sounds like an international conspiracy against EOG. Let’s hope Morocco aren’t in on the plot!

CQW - frustratingly slow I agree, but at least it seems to have finally risen 20% over the past month. Let’s hope it’s a sign that it can finally shake off the placing churn.

Well we’ve waited a long time to find out how big Wressle actually is likely to be, certainly seems to be far exceeding all initial forecasts. I guess the timing of the report publication around now may fit with what UJO are doing in the High Court re getting permission for capital reduction etc..

Not interested in any tit for tats but the summary information you have gleaned on Wressle is not quite accurate. Need to factor in the following:
1 300 is approx total production but not always helpful to lump together Wressle and other. Wressle is extremely profitable (if I recall total project costs calculated at under $18 a barrel based on only 500 bopd, now significantly exceeded with clearly an upgrade in reserves to come) Legacy wells less so. Any increase in Wressle numbers much more significant for profit.
2. Not sure it’s wise to make estimates on one day oil price - don’t see what’s unreasonable about original Tennyson estimate of $110 Brent, especially as a couple of post later you say your own modelling for Ie3 uses a figure of over $100 for WTI!
3. This is an opinion which could be argued either way in the absence of further information
4. Not the full picture. Pstones is not drilled yet for production and will probably need more work. If you listen again to the interview on Friday he gives a fuller description of where this stands. It’s the third reservoir to bring on after Ashover and Wingfield, with a very exciting gas component, hence a significant driver to get the gas off take issue sorted.
5. The operator (edr) have been very clear about their plans to deal with this in several rns’ and Simon reconfirms this in Fridays interview, so seems unnecessary to read anything into his not mentioning it in todays shorter interview. He also states they are looking to increase current production to 1300 bopd from Ashover once the gas handling is sorted. Whether EDR look as though they are doing enough to meet their given timescales may be a different question (!) but seems little doubt that the JV partners are pursuing the gas route and increased production - and that Pstones should feed into this nicely idc.

UJO have also started to motor today, so may be there is something Wressle related happening? Re fracking itself - just don’t see this as a political winner once Truss has won the party leadership, suspect it will be quietly dumped.

Yes looks as if there are still 2-3 placing sells going through a week, but worth noting they nearly always get reported a couple of days late - so this one was from last week. Not sure how much longer they can continue as this is over 4 months now, but they seem to be having less and less impact when there is any buying volume.

H - which platforms don’t you think it’s clear on?

Extract from Notes to editor in latest farmin completion RNS makes it explicit

“In April 2022, Europa farmed into P.2358, Block 13/23c ("Serenity") in the Outer Moray Firth area of the North Sea. The licence contains the 2019 Serenity oil discovery, in which Europa now has a 25% interest”

They have farmed into 25% of the Serenity oil field which includes what has been found there already and whatever may be found from other wells drilled on the newly defined licence block.

Hi GP, thanks for the extra info - that well success rate in the area looks very promising indeed. I think I’m with BoomBoom in being relaxed about the finances as we now have significant income from our production assets which should easily be able to cover cost of another appraisal well next year at a 25% charge to us. Even if they blow the lot on the party of the century, another well would probably only be necessary on success, so they should be able to raise at a much higher price and for a smaller amount - nothing like the pain of this time - hopefully - and the prize would be getting bigger each time!

The Final Results are due in October and these should show how much we have made from Wressle et al over 11 months. We will then be able to calculate more accurately how quickly EOG can accumulate the money needed for any further work. As things stand it should show us sitting on a nice little pile already, as the predicted Serenity costs were covered by the last raise.

Very clear, GP, thank you. I am presuming that the EOG geologists would have had the same questions in mind as you raise and that they saw enough in the pre-existing data to give them confidence to proceed. But there is no such thing as certainty in this business - which is exactly why they need to run the appraisal.

I3e seem to have moved fast on this one so hopefully they would move quickly to complete any further appraisal wells needed if the results are so good that they indicate the reservoir extends even further.

Yes looked like a good run into close with some big buys. Almost 11million traded today which should have helped clear those remaining placing pots. One likely placing trade today of 1.5m this morning, but that went through without even being delayed reported (usually don’t see these reported until Monday evening). Maybe, just maybe, that’s an indication that we can now start to move on beyond the placing plus 20% range!

No doubt Ryan would have terminated the licence if he could. The fact he hasn’t got the political clout in the current situation speaks volumes. It’s now a case of sitting it out until the energy pain in Ireland becomes untenable for the mainstream politicians and a “way out” is found for Ryan.