Member Info for Serif

All good, Tacuma - and thanks for clarifying. Here’s to future success for us both - hopefully before we are too old to enjoy it!

Wow, Tacuma, wasn’t meaning to offend! I have always read your views with interest, even when I disagree. My point was I think Serenity is a departure from the sit there and do little approach, so they are trying to do something - whether we think it is wise or foolish! As it happens it looks like we agree on questioning the fundraise approach used for Serenity which from outside looked like it didn’t seek to minimise the amount of dilution necessary. My “armchair criticism” wasn’t aimed at you - just get a bit frustrated constantly reading across most BBS “it’s all useless managements fault” when a share price goes down and then “give them a knighthood” when it goes up. As in football I suspect most of them are in reality pretty interchangeable in terms of competence and a lot of the rest is down to good fortune.
PS I think this BB has become a lot less toxic over past couple of years - certainly compared with some of our JV partners!

@Tacuma. I think it is easy to criticise any management team from our armchairs. I think they should have been more creative in terms of finding ways with Wressle to reduce the scale of the placing - it’s the continued churn from this taking approx 2 million shares out every 2 days presumably at a 20% profit that is keeping us in the 2.20s. When this is finally finished (amazed it’s still going tbh) the steady buying pressure will IMO move us up quickly.
The line that management are just there to take a salary doesn’t square with Serenity. If this flops that’s the end for Simon. If you were right surely he wouldn’t take the risk, but just sit there and let Wressle pay his salary until he’s 90!

Perhaps if we had dropped as much as UJO and Egdon in the past month we would be going up today?

DB’s comments on the GC report in the RNS look particularly encouraging:

"The Gaffney Cline report continues to be updated and upgraded to reflect increased production rates and also incorporate other ongoing positive reservoir modelling and production profiling exercises into its final analysis.

"Since Gaffney Cline commenced their report, oil production at Wressle has increased by circa 45% and, accordingly their report is being updated to reflect these new positive developments and is now using a reference date of 30 June 2022.

"In addition, Gaffney Cline are compiling three illustrative production scenarios for the Wressle oilfield, indicating average oil production plateaus for the low, medium and high cases, showing the conceptual production curves in each case for the remaining planning period of 13 years.

"Gaffney Cline have also been instructed to comment on any possible untapped resources at the Wressle-1 well that may be present. The report is currently being finalised and the results will be announced in due course."

https://www.thejournal.ie/energy-crisis-warning-5824742-Jul2022/
Just how:many red lights have to flash on the dashboard before the Irish Gov take some action to avert the otherwise inevitable energy breakdown?

HH - could be tempted if I understood a bit more about current production/revenue from Gonzales - do we know anything as this is not obvious to me, but if it’s up and running now would presumably be a money maker and a way of financing works.
Fwiw my take on the big trades was that they were probably buys as the SP and traded price increased rather than decreased. But agree they look at bit

HH - just on a point of fact I think the agreement says that PPP will carry UPL costs until the expiry of this licence phase ie until seismic work completed “(interests carried by NPUSA”).

PPP undoubtably got there hands on what looks like an excellent prospect in just the right place at the right time at a great price because UPL needed to get the seismic done before licence expiry and they were skint. But if it turns up trumps there is enough there to change the trajectories of both companies and I suspect many UPL shareholders are just relieved that this great prospect won’t be wasted.

Agree that company takeovers are very costly. UPL also have a couple of big Malaysian investors (it’s where their real potential lies if they will ever get in with it) so a takeover might come very expensive unless they were happy to give up on their investments to date. I am hoping that this JV will turn out well for both companies - Saouaf certainly looks like a gem and I believe that the original CEO Steve Staley had had his eye on it for years!

Amendment to RNS includes clause to give UPL option to buy back 10% of the licence interest from PPP after seismic completed.

Think you have to start from where you are rather than where you would like to be. A farm in was essential now to secure any value from Tunisia - they have done that and given themselves some options for the future. Let’s see what they now come up with in the next couple of months in terms of broader way forward - hopefully with Board changes.

Yes looks like a positive way forward that is a free carry to find out more about the prospect and a welcome return of costs incurred to date protected against PPP SP fluctuations

@Tovoc. Do you mean enough to cover any subsequent appraisal well required on success? Current drill is estimated at below £15m of which we are liable for just under 50% - hence the £7m raise. Of course any subsequent work to the first appraisal well will only be a 25% charge to EOG so should be nowhere near as expensive to us next time round.

Who knows, maybe they did get a good deal - I3e shareholders didn’t seem too delighted. Again timing could have played a part, coming out of a difficult patch, we moved relatively quickly on a project we had clearly been exploring for some time, enabling the drill to happen this year. It cost us a £7million raising, which has been extremely painful, but maybe will play out for us now.

Hi GP - yes there are a range of factors that will determine whether Serenity ends up as truly commercial - in the sense that someone actually wants to buy it/develop it after our wells have hopefully proved up its full potential. However I can’t think of a better time in recent years to be doing this type of appraisal in the North Sea in terms of favourable interest - and in that way EOG have struck lucky already.

GP - is this not why we are doing an appraisal well?

Think Ryan has taken up a “no surrender” position on any fossil fuel based solution to Irish energy problems (except of course continued burning of coal power stations!) - don’t see any progress until he leaves/is removed from office when reality truly bites..
Re pipeline - seen nothing emerging yet, but there was an email response from Mark Abbot published on line this week, in which he confirmed that they were still working to the timetable previously given.

Not sure how it’s possible to comment on ability to/not to break even this year when we have no data that I can see for any of their operations in 2022.

Good to have the accounts out so we can move on. Can’t see much data about what they have been doing post reporting period which should indicate the potential speed of recovery. Let’s hope they can say a bit more in detail about what they have made progress on soon.

@Yanis. Seems more to me that I3e is connected to the oil price movement which has been “back-pedalling”! Nothing to suggest that it is Serenity connected or that there has been any significant change to how that prospect is viewed.

Can’t imagine why they promised a week if they weren’t 100% certain they could deliver. Any share that has been suspended cos of accounts needs to rebuild trust and that’s not the way to do it!