Member Info for Serif

@Tac, yes that was a pretty infuriating line, but I put it down to “presentation brain fade” as he seemed on top of the SP numbers subsequently and on the SP forecasts. You would think he would know the current SP as his options click in at 2.46 if they can get the price there for 30 days in a row!

Sounds to me from the presentation that he is pretty confident that the Ashover reservoir at Wressle is a lot larger than original estimates. Wish we could get the Gaffney Cline report out so we know what kind of scale upgrade to the reservoirs is likely.

Anything under 2.30 seems to get snapped up immediately at the moment - someone looks as though they took another quick million today.

@brezhnef. Makes me wonder too - what if the UK does give go ahead to fracking on review this week - would the Irish Greens be happy to be taking gas and fracked gas from UK?? I thought that was one of their objections to US LNG.

Thanks, Selfish, for clarification. Personally I think Ryan will sit on them for as long as he can hold the job. I don’t think he can refuse with good reason as it would be against current coalition Gov policy (and cause political as well as potential legal problems) and he won’t grant them as he has too much personal political capital in being seen as anti O&G. So he had planned to subvert the official Gov position by deliberate inaction on permits until continuing uncertainty killed the business interest or the 2019 Green wave had continued to grow until he could change policy on current licence continuation. He didn’t foresee the reality check caused by the scale of the global energy crisis or the specific gas crisis in Europe because of the Russian invasion. If he isn’t forced by circumstances to grant it, I suspect we can now out wait him with a licence renewal “pending ministerial decision”!

Quick glance at PVR site (and I may have misunderstood) but it seems their licence ran out in July 2021 and they are just hanging on waiting for a licence grant since then. No refusal and no consent from Minister. If this is a possible course of action for EOG then may just need to sit out the current Minister to see what comes next.

Selfish I don’t think Hollywood is a similar example in that the oil licence remained in tact (we sold it to UKOG) it was the lease for the particular access site that was withdrawn - different position legally from issuing a licence to explore then constructively preventing exploration by company x on no particular grounds - then subsequently to award it to company y (we would in any case still possess the relevant data to sell of course). Yes I agree Gov will always excuse themselves and we wouldn’t have a prayer if the Irish Gov never returned to the gas licence, but wonder if position would be legally more difficult if the Irish Gov subsequently returned to the licence (and we hadn’t voluntarily surrendered it).

As you say we will see what happens in July/August - as long as someone tells us during all the Serenity excitement - that is if the company management are any the wiser on the position than us! I am just wondering, surely PVR have already had to face this renewal issue, but they seem to be still ploughing on?

Think if the whole Gov took consistent position not to renew any licences over the next 30 years that might be a practical way of killing them off. But think there might be legal problems with refusing to renew a licence for a company that was fulfilling all legal obligations and then subsequently giving it to someone else.

So I reckon that’s about 2.5 million more shares bought than sold today - a nice round number for a late reported placee sale to appear late Monday. They must surely run out soon - almost 3 months of selling against this share price - it’s getting on everyone’s nerves! It was a huge placing, but we’ve had enough time and volume by now to clear it and get ready for the run up to the drill.

Looks like someone(s) has taken 3 million shares here today all in 500k chunks in the high 2.20s.

Might need a Tunisian farmout, Sarawak licence and a positive report on Dunrobin to get us back over tuppence this year! Still all are in play and I’d be very happy to see 2 out of 3 as that would make a serious difference to the SP and future prospects. First building block might be to refresh the Board/management team.

Indeed she does! As you say there is clearly some interest and I would like to see how high she could bounce from such a low base when a bit of news lands.

Yes it’s a huge gamble like most of these Aim shares, but not sure it will go much lower than today until it’s clear that nothing more will emerge in the next few weeks. Imagine most holders have sold up or are sticking it out at this level. The RNS leaves a lot of obvious questions, but none of us knows exactly how it will play out, even adopting a letter by letter analysis!

If it’s that gloomy I am surprised they are bothering to come back then.

See the below extract from the recent Tennyson broker note:

“Given that the well is classified as appraisal, there is no independent geological chance of success, however we expect the well to have a better than one-in-two chance of meeting its objectives.”

Did anyone make it to the presentation on Thursday and, if so, any comments on what was said/asked and/or any impressions of the EOG team members there?

Selfish why does it need a renewal? Its on a 15 year FEL which started August 2019. Is there something about this which still needs Gov renewal?

Yes Morocco decision needed in Nov 2022 before going into phase 2 (drilling) on the exploration licence - phase 1 was meant to be only for 2 years but they got a one year Covid extension. But if they can’t get a farmin in current circumstances can’t see when they ever would, so not sure having it for longer would make much difference.

@Joyride. Haha, it had crossed my mind, but Simon hadn’t opened his mouth yet at the time of the sales!

I suspect there has been a large placing sell depressing the SP all week - certainly yesterday there were a couple of million buys unbalanced by any declared sells. Now it looks as if the MMs have decided to break up the rest of the sell to push it through in chunks this morning, which inevitably took us down. But as you say once this clears we are likely to bounce back up again.