Member Info for Serif

Sure Selfish, but if Serenity doesn’t come in he may not be CEO for long and he will still be in profit from his share options while we won’t. As I see it his key performance rests on Serenity - it’s where he has put a lot of our money - so think it would look better if he didn’t qualify for these cheaper share options until we know the result. I know it’s not a big issue in the scale of things, especially as I think Serenity will come in with something, but not a good look all the same.

Thanks to the closing mid price of 2.475 it looks like Simon now qualifies for his 8 million share options at 1.23p, which at todays price makes him £100k richer. Not a bad day for everyone then.

IMO worst of both worlds if we close at this exact SP. Simon gets his 8 million half price shares before we know Serenity result (vest at 2.46 mid price, and I think this is day 30), while the SP still sits below 2.5p. Doesn’t seem right.

Just have to ask yourself whether a drop to the SP level during peak Covid, when oil was about $20 a barrel and pre Wressle flowing is very likely, and if not why anyone would work on that basis. Having said that emotion could take the SP anywhere up or down the day of the result, but it will then find a more stable level in a day or two.

Looks like that particular sale has now cleared as we have started to move up.

Make that 5million!

Clearly a huge sell being worked as we have just had c3million shares bought in last few minutes but the SP hasn’t risen. At least we should finally see what’s going on and once the sale clears the SP can hopefully turn around.

Suddenly the MMs are also reporting the larger sales which makes it appear worse than before - I wonder what guidelines they follow on this?

BGF did not take their shares in the last placing. All their shares were taken in the 2018 placing at 3p - they have not participated in any placing since. We need to find another explanation - such as Yanis suggests.

Tomorrow is working day 30 since the SP rose continuously above 2.46 by my reckoning, the point at which many of the Board’s share options vest. If it drops a little more tomorrow by close, they will have to wait for drill results before getting more cheap shares!

CFQ - Ireland is not a fixed term parliament, it falls when the coalition splits. Would be amazed to see it surviving for another year with energy, cost of living and economic crises coming this winter.

Probably worth distinguishing between SP predictions on BBs and what the company is saying and doing with its assets. One looks wrong, the other seems to be progressing as planned. Broker did cash in warrants on Friday so presumably intended to sell them?

@Biggleswerf. Agreed and we have known all along that this review would not consider exploring indigenous resources as a possible solution - Ryan state that out in his original Terms of Reference. The point is he has deflected all questions about what Ireland is going to do by saying “we need to wait for this Review”. Well here it is and is anyone the wiser about the plan to manage the gas shortfall while avoiding LNG, fracked gas (esp if UK starts fracking) and indigenous resources? - because I’m not, nor will any serious political or commentator in Ireland. Should be the start of an interesting political session to draw up a plan to survive in the real world now. Fingers crossed!

Could be, Selfish, but also may be nervousness by investors that BGF are selling at 3p. Once we test over 3p, if there is no obvious new big dump by BGF, think there might be more confidence and the SP could move along nicely. SP looks to be moving on smaller buy volumes now so we just need a little push to test that level.

Still have a way to go to reach 25649 posts!

We don’t know their plans - they may have derisked enough, we will only know when we reached those levels. And let’s be realistic there are no doubt plenty of traders who have bought in recently who will be looking to sell at those levels (10-20% from here), we just have to hope EOG can bring out enough news to attract more buyers than sellers on the rise.

Not sure it’s a concern - there has been no selling pressure since Monday pm - we are rising and falling back on very low trading volumes. If there is no TR1 this week then likely conclusion is that they have stopped selling for whatever reason and only disposed of around an extra 9m shares last week (to avoid crossing a threshold). This would mean that the majority of the 100 m shares traded last week was simply windy PIs and traders doing their stuff!

Draft Oil and Gas?

For all those interested in our Inishkea - don’t know if you have seen the comment by the normally very reliable Tommy on the other board, that the Irish Energy Security Report is rumoured to be published this week. This report is some 18 months late thanks to Mr Ryan, and if I recall he had tried to stack the findings by excluding them from even considering exploration for new resources as a possible solution. Will be interesting to see if that restriction has survived this years developments - but either way it’s going to raise the temperature of the debate which is already appearing hostile to Ryan’s position. Its very appearance is evidence that he is feeling the heat (unlike everyone else in Ireland who will soon be shivering in a blackout).

Selfish - may not yet classify as the most exciting period ever for EOG, but there’s a lot bubbling away all at once!

Having read the report in more detail it does seem a considered and intelligent analysis of Wressle potential, without screaming headlines of 2000bopd tomorrow. As such it has got the kind of raspberry you might have expected on Aim! No surprise that it is presented in a way that emphasises consistency over time as it was commissioned by UJO to presumably convince corporates of their ability to sustain a dividend over time. As GP points out the calculated reserves are hugely increased overall and it would be interesting from EOGs perspective to see a broker upgrade on the new figures. On a more simplistic level as a lth interested in more than just Serenity it reassures me that over the next 5 years we should be able to sustain the type of income from Wressle that will allow us to develop and grow our assets either to build on Serenity or replace it idc should it go nowhere.

The other subtext that screams out to me is that Egdon really need to get on with monetising the gas as at present it is a pure economic and environmental waste.