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True but you still can’t stop people misrepresenting what you write if they want to.

Just trying to counter some of the scare stories being spread by some. Good to have but nothing we didn’t actually know, including the need for additional appraisal well only in the case of success with the current drill.

3-5 times current price, which is why the risk-reward calculation looks so good to me at these prices, especially as it’s given an over 50% chance of success.

@Biggleswerf. If Serenity significantly disappoints probably best to turn off the screen and come back in a week or two! Sure there will be all sorts of panics, trading manoeuvres etc, which will favour certain traders over ordinary PIs etc. Still think its hard to calculate the stabilised SP price without Serenity success, what with Wressle oil, Wressle gas to come, whatever can be salvaged from Serenity oil in place, cash in hand. Oil price may have dropped from highs but a large part of that is mitigated for EOG (unlike I3e) because of pounds depreciation against the dollar. Any small uptick on any of these and I think we could find ourselves not a long way from where we are right now, which makes the current panic seem out of perspective when you think the odds given are in favour of a Serenity success!

Because there is nothing cash producing yet I haven’t even mentioned Ireland (on which I am hopeful for some sort of movement in next 6 months) or Morocco (which I’m less excited about), or the Baker Hughes/Gateway ESG venture SO flagged up again in his last interview. I don’t think they will just sit still and shrug their shoulders, IMO SO was pretty clear in his long Proactive interview that he thought there was a window of a couple of years to get anything moving, before 2040/2050 targets probably made funding for most longer term developments a no go.

HDT - too much information! But thanks for refocusing back on EOG.

SP is grim - all you can say constructively is that there is less downside now in case of a flop, so perhaps the risk/reward equations become a bit more straightforward. On a more positive note still think we could see something unexpected that will explain the need for a contingency loan, as it doesn’t seem quite right as things stand at present.

So scheduled drilling to finish by weekend of 22 October - if it takes the full time - presumably results the following week. If it’s earlier great, then people will have less time to worry that “it’s late”!

That would be a week early in terms of scheduled drill - but they have probably built in some slippage in the 30 days, so you could be right if all goes smoothly. Looking at dates we should get the Final Results for the year just before then, so we should find out how much cash the company has in reserve in addition to the contingency loan.

Is deer - of course you won’t, an MM will buy it at that level and sell it in 5 mins later at 1.5P! Have you seen the margin they have been making on the large sale reported yesterday?

@Bigbear - I think lths are more interested in what the recovery price for their investment is likely to be. On the day the SP could be 1p or 10p, but that as you point out the initial reaction is unlikely to reflect the more settled value which will reflect EOGs other assets.

BoomBoom, very helpful summary. Appreciated.

HDT the sale was actually yesterday morning so it may have been mostly worked on 20th. That means we have had 2 days of similar price action since then, so am hoping it may be our BGF friends going all out - which would explain what has happened and why we can buy so cheaply at this stage.

Agreed Bladey. We can all feel the disappointment (and anxiety) Yanis, but I think we need to keep cool heads or you can bet there will be someone out there trying to exploit our emotions and fan the flames to their own advantage.

Think you might want to ask UJO holders how much they feel they have benefit so far! Egdon have a big fracking spike IMO. Good question why all three haven’t benefitted greatly from Wressle. Suspect it may be something to do with AIM investors preferring to dream of untold riches rather than being attracted to good but predictable revenue.

@Tovoc - happy to do a dance if it will help, but not sure what luck we want to change - spudding on timescale? Taking part in an appraisal with an over 50% chance of success? Having fallback of commercial oil in place already in Serenity? Wressle performing beyond wildest expectations when we started the drill? Oil and gas prices at historically high levels? Because of BGF sell off a number of people, probably principally traders, haven’t been able to cash in as they hoped. I feel strangely unmoved by that.

HDT - as I understand it if successful looks like we might be looking to drill a further appraisal well perhaps next Spring. EOG share only then 25% of costs so may well be fundable from Wressle by then, although the value of such a large Serenity oil field would make any raise relatively painless as it would be on a much much higher SP. Production would be further down the line still, but would the company even wait for that or sell on at vast profit??

Stay focused on what’s actually happening. This is the first EOG drill in years, starting as planned and if successful - “better than 50% chance” - will transform the value of our shareholdings. What happens to the SP before the result- who sells or who buys - in 30 days won’t matter.

Been clear from the start that if it’s a success they will want to move on and do a further appraisal to see how big a monster they really have. When the field is known then you can decide the best place and method to produce.

This is an appraisal well not a production well, so when you have completed you p&a - it’s that simple.

Hi Bladey, for some reason MMs here seem to leave reporting the really big sells from today until tomorrow evening. I’m hoping to see a TR1 first followed by the mega sell that took us down today. As others have been saying it’s just better to get them out now, so hoping they are now gone as that should take the weight off this SP and allow it to respond to this very promising appraisal opportunity.

That’s the one, Selfish. Which part do you think I may have misunderstood? My interpretation is - above 2x1.23p (2.46p) for 30 consecutive trading days, which I believe to be today. OK the final tranche is still to come in, but the other two are now in the bag and because the 30 day condition has been met, the third will come automatically next August. Happy to be corrected, especially if it means that these extra millions are not yet on their way!