Member Info for senseman

6 months 180 days x average 9000bpd x Brent $80 = $130 mill
$130 mill + min $40 this offload = $170 mill - $28 mill current deficit = $142 mill
knockoff max $10 mill extra into escrow for BW deal ($19 mill already held in escrow) = $132 mill
knock off any sum you choose for Brent net to HUR below $80 (saudi need $73 and russia $68 a barrel to balance books)
and you end up with +$100 mill. i would say more likely +$120 mill
+ Brent price probability more likely to rise than fall next 6 months
maris needs a new calculator - $8-$38 mill? - on what planet?
tell me where i am wrong

6 months 180 days x average 9000bpd x Brent $80 = $130 mill
$130 mill + min $40 this offload = $170 mill - $28 mill current deficit = $142 mill
knockoff max $10 mill extra into escrow for BW deal ($19 mill already held in escrow) = $132 mill
knock off any sum you choose for Brent net to HUR below $80 (saudi need $73 and russia $68 a barrel to balance books)
and you end up with +$100 mill. i would say more likely +$120 mill
+ Brent price probability more likely to rise than fall next 6 months
maris needs a new calculator - $8-$38 mill?
tell me where i am wrong

As things stand, HUR will have +$100 mill net free cash on bond repayment date. ie: after all bonds repaid. Not $8 - $38 mill

I would love a further bond buyback - anything to limit Maris & Chaffe depressive wordsmith damage
RNS as bland as bland as bland can be
SHs left relieved it lacks an overt doom & gloom the end is nigh paragraph. A pathetic position a chair to place SHs in
Deliberately omitted is even that BW already hold circa 20 mill in escrow for current deal, so only small top up needed
Bond cash all secure in one week next offload - main message reality which should highlight today's RNS

2 out of 10.
If HUR only have net 8 - 30 mill cash by july 22, my todger is a foot long
i agree maris needs depart- the future risk he poses to the company outweighs the hassle-risk of replacing him. can one imagine him negotiating with a trade buyer? he'd sell for half price

keep on cheering fatsammy - brent today $86.4

the 2 baddies won't be going anywhere at the next agm without ca say-so. how many SHs will vote them out if ca want them to stay, knowing HUR would have 30 days to find replacements? if that were the case, they would have been out at the last agm post-court case. the 2 baddies know HUR can't afford (recovery wise) to sack them yet - it ain't easy to attract quality newbies to a small recovering company reliant on one well. sadly HUR stuck with rubbish for a while yet

i hope RNS delay is due to something being finalised late in the day & CA insisting on delay so it can be included- further bond buying, BW deal, whatever it may be. that is what my money is on

Winalot sadly correct. $4 mill down the swanee (methinks poor negiotiating with BP early doors). no doubt HUR hurt big time (+ $30mill?) over period of time by BP always having choice of pricing period. must look to future succour - consistent future high Brent.
mals suggest choking back well 6 awhile. would love to see it happen, if only to stop donating $4mill to BP. but apart from the old maxim - if it ain't broke don't tinker with it - would need creative CEO & CFO working in HUR's favour - which Maris & Chaffe ain't - no shares, no skin in the game. My view since court failure being that their primary goal would be, for reputational protection/recovery purposes, to limit HUR's recovery as much as poss till at least July 22 bond redemption date. i believe they will likely continue that behaviour for at least another 6 months and CA will have an existential battle with them re RNS content for a goodly while yet. the 2 baddies will stop if only when they start to look stupid (eg as fat Boris does now). they are wholly aware that most lazy analysts rely mainly on company CEO RNSs and can't be bothered to look into the company history and if the CEO & CFO might be wrong 'uns

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Really-Reach-200.html

Tad sad no news today, c'est la vie
My reading is any HUR RNS now only agreed by committee vote, ie Maris & CA. CA will have been seriously peed off by Maris trashing SP last 2 RNSs and stepped in waving their -30%. I would. They are right & still hidden agenda Maris is wrong. But Maris knows is on thin ice so has to listen. So expect existential battle re content & wording of this & next few RNSs - and add few days to expected timeline.
Or details of something significant being tied up is causing delay- we can but hope

Brent +$85 so HUR officially now waist high in cream. $90 being neck high, $95 head high, + $100 drowned & in heaven.

Sadly HUR will get only tops $78 - $80 for imminent offload as BP will choose start of Jan's average. But looking good going forward, crucial will be Brent price start of March

good chance 7am tomorrow will see most eagerly awaited end of year report + monthly update
specifics aside, i am most interested in whether the tone is balanced & upbeat
since CA issued their own HUR positive update 3 months ago, raising SP to 5p, each HUR RNS has contained a quite unnecessary 'doom is nigh' paragraph immediately crashing the SP. without these SP would today be materially higher

in senseman's view...barring black swan....a no brainer
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A-Watershed-Moment-That-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-To-100.html

oil flirts with $84 as omicron market disruption fears recede
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-resumes-climb-renewed-risk-appetite-tight-opec-supply-2022-01-11/

Afternoon el
warren buffet apparently wrote that 'work' consisted of reading 3-4 hrs a day re companies, politics, the news etc, and sitting reflecting for the rest of the day, he was expert in no particular field, save a voracious appetite to read and think. after a while he began to see patterns of probability and a reliable perspective re risk-reward taking into account the panorama of all he had read. i suppose it's like not being particularly interested in cricket (or any other sport) - but after watching enough of it one unconsciously becomes expert .
i read around oil for a few mins each day for no intrinsic reason other than i have skin in HUR. add to that tv, news etc and slowly the specifics at least begin to fall into some overall perspective (at least i delude myself they do). that's why i don't think any SHs time is wasted reading around all the good & bad re oil. it's not about any end opinion - but the force & validity of an opinion's supporting rational.
i agree it is on balance difficult to see how oil supply cannot become scarcer and more valuable more quickly now the green transition is being embraced. to me this seems that even without well 6, HURs acreage etc becomes more valuable and attractive to 3rd parties (or indeed to HUR itself if it could magic another producer or extend well 6's life). the challenge of course is to navigate successfully particularly the next 6 months. covid could return in another form, well 6 could have accelerated problems etc. warren buffet would identify around half a dozen companies with great risk/reward potential and would expect only 1-2 to really come good - but that was enough and all he hoped for
i imagine a fair few SHS (myself included) wish they had the spare wonga to buy another 500K as you have done. not because they consider HUR a certainty, but because of their view of the risk-reward probability. it goes without saying i hope you make some tidy wonga

i

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/burning-questions-will-oil-prices-soar-or-crash-and-burn-in-2022
KSA currently needs circa $72 a barrel to balance it's books, & Russia circa $69

You also. All forgotten. Enjoy the sun on your back.

Thank you Daltry. Appreciated. No harm, no ill will

see you're still at it daltry - putting yourself and feeding the canaries before the communal good
am neither paranoid nor unchilled, thank you. any other irrelevant cheap shots you want to fire?
ps. fair warning - you'll give up having a pop at me before i stop calling you out

wellintervention - very interesting. here is link for bank of america head of commodities calling same thing. forecasts $100 oil in quarter 2
https://youtu.be/L-uesFbazuU

daltry
'because it doesn't bother me, sod everyone else'.
that's it? daltry in a nutshell?
i'd hate to be standing next to you in the trenches!
the canaries bother the rest of the forum and are loathed. they also seek to influence newbies to bin HUR shares or not to invest. or are you so naive?