Member Info for senseman

1616
you are at it again, stop it
i have stated that i do not know. ergo - how can i be wrong?
whereas you have stated one extreme as being an absolute certainty
why don't you stop bending other's words all the time?

my 'be wary' comment applies also to mirasol's comment. crystal amber requested their experts have sight of data given to ERCE and indeed all HUR data, ie. transparency, and were refused. No legitimate reason was given

In the same way that Trice may have over egged the data pudding, the then new BoD may have under egged the date pudding. Both had goals to achieve and/or axes to grind. The truth may be somewhere in the middle or more accurately somewhere along the continuum from one extreme to the other. No one knows. That is why a 3rd CPR is needed from a new report company when new HUR senior execs are in place
Beware of accepting as fact anything 1616 states is fact. He has a famous history of being completely wrong

the relevant more likely issue is whether either of the 2 boards gave selective date to CPR companies

it is completely wrong to expect SHs to be able to make an informed decision on when to sell without knowing which of CPR1 & CPR 2 is correct, or if best known current 'geology truth' lies somewhere between the two. Were I CEO I would want the question answered for me to be able to make informed decisions, and as duty of care to SHs. I would consider it imperative for my company's wellbeing for trust to be transparently restored.
The nub is that data is supplied by the instructing company. Hence trust in correct data being supplied is crucial. Hence management transparently being aligned with SHs is crucial to a 3rd CPR being commissioned.

ignore noise and apply our perpetual best friend 'perspective'
HUR 2.4 billion shares with $120 mill free cash = 5p a share. Hence the importance of free cash
For someone with 5p share average, HUR sale at 10p is a win. So don't want exploration cost risked or 3rd CPR
For someone with 40p average (some high as 60p), HUR sale at 10p is not a win. They want (reliable) 3rd CPR given transparent legitimacy questions re CPR 1 & CPR 2.
Should 3rd CPR be any significant improvement on CPR 2, HUR SP would rise significantly.
Economically and morally, obtaining 3rd CPR is valid. It is no brainer.
First thing HUR buyer would do would be commission 3rd CPR

HUR deletion rate is slower than cited on twitter. I say more than $70 mill by july bond date, by a fair chunk

a 3rd CPR would be invaluable as and when time and money permit, and new management is in place.

I share your angst, Divey - couple of my BoD-critical posts removed yesterday.
I can't see the BoD as constituted opting for a new CPR. But believe will be obliged to uprate figures in light of CA RNS & EV article. I suppose they could also ask ERCE to remodel CPR 2 in light of last 12 months field/well data and CA new figures etc. That would surely benefit upwards, but would not answer the fundamental CPR 2 authenticity questions.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Worlds-Top-Oil-Trader-Sees-Higher-Prices.html

No Kama
CA proposed today's new NED was in it's recent RNS, so my post written with that already assumed - hence 'CA new NED' in point 1

The order I see things happening next few months:-
1. (i) Aoka Mizu extension & (ii) production/finance projections uprated (ii driven by Energy Voice article + CA new NED)
2. Bonds repaid in full post end March offload (+ $10 - $20 mill still left in bank), poss mid-end April
3. July AGM CEO & CFO depart. New appointees
For various reasons I do not see a rush to immediate big spends before than. One of which being that with high Brent HUR is cash cow causing SP to rise organically. It will be deemed wiser to build decent cash reserve as security against possible Well 6 bubble point and/or pump problems. Rather than big new spends which if not successful might plunge HUR straight back into frying pan. I see post July AGM as being when (poss new) BoD will reassess overall position, including actively seeking farmee/partner or outright sale.
Meanwhile, we need pray for 6 months more high Brent & no Well 6 problems (the risk of which we are all aware)

Notrac - interesting specifics. it is not my field but i was recently informed by someone who's view i respect that companies do regularly pay 50% of tax value. so it is very real tangible value money. instinct tells me we SHs underestimate the value

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/crude-oil-tests-95-per-barrel-saudi-arabia-increases-oil-prices-122020700064_1.html

mira - what is a 'piper unit'? googled but can't find

fang - concur in spades
have reflected for some time that with b/holders gone, cash in bank & oil in ground till 2025 in current curve, that well 6 potential problems if occur are overstated and solvable.
also that whole market undergrasps PoO pressure upwards next few years
it is about sitting in chair for quiet think balancing risk reward ratio, ignoring all noise, and at end trusting gut instinct.
if HUR get PoO $90 net next 3 offloads, means circa net $100 mill free cash in bank by end july post bond repayment. my instinct for a while says more likely than less likely. and if PoO end july still +$90 and stays there, HUR huge zero debt cash cow till 2025 on current curve if well 6 behaves
have thought this since june 21 court hearing - then i took for granted that vaccines beat covid & huge market & PoO rebound, wasn't rocket science, just ignoring the noise
have never had the slightest doubt that this is how bad BoD & b/holders saw things, hence worth spending $17 mill of what they thought would be their own HUR money to steal HUR for nothing

it's the big question, hasiba
M & C strung out bond uncertainty as long as poss
methinks doing same re AM extension deal - likely 2 months negotiating who pays for choccy biscuits on signing day
methinks uncertainty AM deal holding SP back big time

significant plus is low volumes show no one prepared to sell - shares for a while been in sticky hands
big surprise for me today reading re future oil price forecasts is how many analysts see oil price steady rise to 2030 & beyond on account of constant supply shortage (low investment/ too fast energy transition). many see $100 as semi-permanent 'new bottom'
HUR current 2 crucials nest few months are AM extension & Well 6 no problems. Know forward plan crucial, but irrelevant without AM & Well 6

https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti
interesting reading - forecast $100 by end feb & +$100 constant next few years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-03/roaring-oil-market-heads-for-seventh-weekly-gain-as-wti-tops-90

proactive ceo & cfo would now be on the blower to b/holders some or all re agreed buy-back - b/holders lose couple of million can invest elsewhere early, hurr save couple of million. 2-3 million may not sound much in broad scheme of things, but is huge, it's real not monopoly money. proactive attitude over period of time mutates into big costs savings. differentiates good execs from bad execs. look after pennies and pounds look after themselves - swiss banking motto