Member Info for senseman

Thank you 1616 for indicating that 99% of it is
The only thing 'right' about it are the capital letters and full stops

All take note -
The 'research note' was written by a declared shorter (likely upon request) & posted for derampers to make mischief
There are half a dozen immediate basic flaws in content, logic and proper perspective. It is couched in techno-babble for fake gravitas (to make it harder to contradict - think of a rogue medical practitioner arguing techo-medicine against you)
The 'research note' is drivel. Ignore

i get very wary very quickly when shorters cannot even be bothered to get basic facts and sums right - eg; omitting to mention that net circa $30 mill is about to be received end jan which will effectively zero HUR net debt at end jan. not at end march. or has the offload tanker vanished into the bermuda triangle?
burn alive all shorters and their deviant wordsmiths tomorrow

Since the imminent offload will be the 27th offload, it is not difficult to see how much being at the wrong end of the deal must have cost HUR over the whole production period. Even by $1mill an offload, that's $27 mill

Will have been agreed when thought HUR had 2 billion barrels and expected a few more producing wells by now. MrWilks. So why play hardball too much over 'minutia'. HUR sure been on the losing end of most downloads. Brent now $88 won't currently help us - if next offload is before end March we need high HUR start & end of March to reap mega wonga

15 Jan 9650 bpd - from RNS

Current best indicator is that currently well 6 is performing better than HUR predictions - production, water cut, well gauge pressure all exceeding expectations which predicted economic viability ending Feb 2024. This may suggest well 6 may contain larger volume of economically extractable than envisaged, hence possibility of economic viability beyond Feb 2024.

Feb's operational update will be interesting on all fronts - finances, well 6 production & performance data, & mood music

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/01/19/oil-prices-likely-to-hit-105-by-second-half-of-year-says-goldmans-jeff-currie.html

noel - the slit is canary deramper
slitty - shame bhp, water cut & production holding up remarkably well eh? and that HUR forecast well 6 economic production till Feb 2024 eh? and Brent +$88 eh?
well 6 currently performing significantly better than HURs prognosis suggests viability may extend beyond Feb 2024
slitty you must try harder

The reason CA will be so concerned re ongoing inadequate downbeat RNSs is, apart from the constant SP drag, it makes negotiating with a potential farmee or trade buyer so onerous - the first thing they will wave (as a tactic) are HURs own downbeat RNSs showing poss only $8 mill net free cash by end July 22. One cannot really argue in negotiations that the RNSs were constructed by rogue CEO & CFO.

red, don't know details. but look at it this way, even if the CEO or CFO gave notice, would CA want them there another 6 months?
if dyor is correct as likely, makes easier - i recall ca stating at july agm they needed keep M & C pro tem so someone there to show new NEDs how things worked at HUR. so that time and need has passed also

but a sickening way of looking at Maris & Chaffe strikes me -
HUR have -$28 mill net debt with offload and & cash in bank by end jan to clear that - for simplicity let's say to zero net debt
fair enough?
RNS says in next 6 WHOLE MONTHS ie start Feb - end July total, HUR may (on 31 July) have only +$8 mill cash - in other words that producing +9000 bpd at Brent +$80, in 6 clear months HUR can throw off only $8 mill profit
what hope does HUR have whilst it's 2 top guys posit such statements in the public domain?

lots of good pithy comment today
agree with you flynchy - i think CA have now seen & had enough & will be actively working to replace one or both asap as soon as sequencing falls into place - an aligned management team now crucial going forward
red - re 6 months notice, can't see it happening - will be paid off & leave early - money well spent to get shut of them, eh?
golden - we aren't too far apart re our sums - must admit inbuilt into my +$100 mill were expectation of one or more of (i) further bond buyback (ii) above $80 (iii) extra $10mill sitting in AM tanks by end July. re the other stuff we'll find out soon enough. ca won't let any other 30% steal HUR, they would immediately raise themselves to 30% to counter

and BRENT $88.5 - good, good, good! at $90 HUR are shoulder-high in cream!

Sharefall - if one or both go HUR has a calendar month for find replacement otherwise delisted from AIM - bondholders would certainly kick off again & press for this. Maris & Chaffe know this. They also know would be hard to attract good CEO & CFO to join HUR whilst recovering and with bondholders still there. So instead of acting honourably after June court, they have continued deviantly playing the situation for all it is worth. CA would need to find and line up new CEO & CFO on the quiet then call EGM to kick Maris & Chaffe out & have new guy(s) voted in.
One may be absolutely certain CA are sick to death of inadequate RNS's serving as lead anchors on the SP and will have fronted both Maris & Chaffe about it numerous times. But the baddies are hard faced two faced deviants acting to their own agenda. They will say yes yes mea culpa won't do it again... till the next time. Recent proper upbeat RNS should have shot the SP to 6p rather than raise it by just 0.4p so it's easily dragged down by MM to pre RNS level
That said, I imagine very strongly that having given the baddies numerous chances to change tack, CA will actively be considering replacing one or both asap, whatever the hassle.
Personally I would do it one at a time, get ANYONE lined up then sack CEO Maris immediately. CEO writes the RNS. Maris does sod all anyway save to smoke cigars, delay the BW deal and think about the next slimeball RNS, all for half a mill a year. And new CEO can keep Chaffe in check & his nose to the grindstone where it belongs.

Exposed are the limitations of an anodyne RNS stating grudgingly that HUR should enough cash to pay bonds but may have a little as $8 mill free cash by end July 22. Rather than one stating cash from imminent offload will put HUR in net cash positive position end January, and providing an objectively realistic end July 22 positive net cash position. Proof of how dangerous the 2 bad guys remain

Spot on Bobat
HUR is NOT a dog. HUR is a Phoenix about to SOAR
There are LIMITED number of shares in non-sticky hands
DO NOT SELL FOR LIMITED PROFIT - KEEP THE FAITH - SMELL THE HUGE FUTURE PROFIT

flynchy - that is helpful
maris will try to postpone full repayment as long as poss even when enough free cash is held to do so - it enables him to muddy RNS figures & messages.
CA will be pressing both for further bond buyback and early full redemption, both for $ savings and to stop maris's games ASAP

Brent $87.6
Imminent offload say $42 mill - $8 mill January costs = $34 mill - $28.5 mill net debt = +$5.5 mill net free cash
End Jan HUR all bond cash secure & HUR + $5.5 mill net free cash (+ $4.5 mill tax rebate due)
IF ONLY the fools had spent $30 mill buying bonds @ 30-40 cents in $, & not instigated $19 mill scam plan -
HUR would end Jan be sitting on +$100 mill free cash 6 months ahead of time
$100 mill equates to 5p a share. Add to that confidence not having been destroyed
Regrets, I have a few..........

I would again urge a re-read of Floridajoe's excellent 13.52 post here today - reposted by parsnip1 on ADVFN at 13.55. To lock in the fundamentals.
Trade parties will be looking HUR over - make no mistake

One senses CA effort in changing the mood music - one imagines the necessary time & effort expended ongoingly is driving them crazy - but they will continue. Maris & Chaffe have, by continuing unbalanced disclosure, forfeited all extended credibility they were allowed on license. Inter alia whichever way one looks at it, the projected June 22 figures are fiction, and lack of legitimately entitled BoD optimism puerile.

Pressing for further bond buying & Bluewater deal will be CA's immediate short term priorities. It is also difficult to envisage they are unaware of the potential value of a cost effective FWP at the appropriate time, and that this is not discussed with the 2 oiler NEDs

Peeps should pay particular attention to Floridajoe's post (also posted on ADVFN). It says much in short space and is fair summary. I agree with the figures.

It poses the fair questions as to what the SP would currently now be had HUR a competent, non-deviant CEO. And what could it rise to with with one now - one with skin in the game assiduously seeking to maximise HUR potential and SP value to SHs

We have been whipped for so long by criminal cretins that inevitably, even for the most optimistic, ones senses are dulled to the extent that one simply seeks the SP to become ' a bigger peanut'. Time to change that mindset!

I posted months ago that those in balls deep anything up to 60p should not lose hope, and with fair wind I reasonably expected a phoenix like rise to +20p. I refrained from posting my private realistic upwards of 20p view to limit the canary crapology onslaught. For same reason I now still refrain from posting that same view, save to say with 1-2 significant building blocks falling into place, it remains significantly above 20p. It may not happen. But make no mistake - it is a genuine possibility

For it to happen, I would find a competent, honest CEO as soon as expediency permits. I would not trust Maris to feed the goldfish or walk the dog. I would go so far as to say my pet urang utang Cedric would do a better job working 2 days a week - and he only needs paying in lovely juicy bananas and a nice bit of female company once a fortnight

Fair point, Gonebroke, mea culpa, forgot, but changes little, deliberately understated to inbuild wiggle room
likely will exceed 9000 bpd next 6 months (current 9650 bpd)
and tax rebate $4-$5 mill excluded
at least 1 further bond buy-back probable to save few million more (CA will be pushing pushing)
any way sums are done ( i cited more likely +$120 mill) still arrive at net +$100 million)
maris $8-$38 mill pure fiction