Member Info for SenatorPrime

Glenhoss - May help to be a little better informed.

We have major infrastructure damage to Arab/UAE operations and whether by direct Kinetic strikes on Iranian operational infrastructure or internal damage to wells by inability to offload production, it's likely Iranian output will be taken off the Int market - hence India & China who buy the majority of the sanctioned oil - will have to source it from elsewhere, hence sustaining global oil prices upwards.

'StanChart: $95 Per Barrel Is The New Oil Price Equilibrium' - "Analysts expect sustained higher oil prices, even post-conflict,"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/StanChart-95-Per-Barrel-Is-The-New-Oil-Price-Equilibrium.html

Petro Matad SP will likely be significantly higher, as production increase & forward growth, directly impacts the balance sheet & forward projection for such.

You're Welcome!

Especially as current volumes are relatively low - when it moves, it can really move.

Hopefully, we'll get the transition of larger Institutions in & the transient retail element out, as production increases and the Renewables start to factor in.

GOBI - 150% larger than Heron

-Not a speculative wildcat; the October 2024 RNS already CONFIRMED presence of migrated oil.

- Upcoming flow test idesigneded to confirm commerciality.

- Gobi's shallower depth historically correlates with superior permeability in the Tamsag Basin—the probability of a commercial flow rate exceeding 200–400 bopd remains exceptionally high apparently (caveat: not an oil Engineer).

Currently c. $30M USD Mkt Cap, so the market's fundamentally mis-pricing a lab-proven discovery that could drive a rerating toward the 22p–35p Net Asset Value (of Block XX only and excluding any Block 7 or Renewables component of the business).

Troops on the ground?

"Oil prices have jumped to their highest since 2022 after a report that the US military is set to brief President Donald Trump on new plans for potential action in the Iran war.

US Central Command has prepared a plan for a wave of "short and powerful" strikes on Iran to try to break the deadlock in negotiations with Tehran, news site Axios reported."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o

Abzzba, I get it - WIN/WIN!

Brent $121bbl - I think we're going to get a major development there in the next few days. Wouldn't be surprised if its this weekend.

Trump's saying they're happy to maintain the blockade. Others are hinting bat an imminent kinetic strike on Kharg Island

Re: BUYOUT - the much strengthened case for that is an obvious one, as well as the obvious synergies with Blocks 19 & 21, that Petro China already own

Re: FARM OUT - Ditto Abzzba.

However, the likelihood of a Farm Out is extremely high, given the Firm Proposal already on the table for Petro Matad & the reference towards conclusion, as well as the much strengthened position of Geo-political supply shifts & increased revenue towards strengthening the balance sheet

Back to sensible discussion - Not the Hamm 'flip-flop' machine - as posted earlier

"If we assume $70 Brent then after price adjustment processing handling and trucking fees block 20 receives around about $54 per barrel and applying the PSC terms MATAD Nets around about $43 a barrel."

We currently have a circa $124bbl but we can look at forward oil price stability around bthe $95bbl level, giving us a very healthy Net Payback, well above the c.$43 at $70bbl

Risk v Reward with Zero Debt?

In ground valuation assumes a $3-$8bbl figure. With elevated prices expected for a sustained period (ref: $95bbl) - We can reasonably assume the upper figure.

For Heron ONLY - 35M-60M x $8bbl = $280M - $480M at $8bbl in ground

or $175M - $300M at $5bbl in ground

Those are 'in ground'asset values, development of the asset would yield significantly more (ref: Net Payback figures) & then we can factor in other asset arms.

Your own words Hamm

"Doc, you are wrong. I am not trading never been." - 8th Apr

"Might have to sell half my shares, then buy back" - 5th Apr

And makes a Buyout more likely OR just strengthens our position re: specific Farm Out terms / Share allocated for cash injection etc

Buyout?

"Just thinking that a buy out would require an AGM, an EGM or some kind of general meeting for a shareholder vote." - It's something we've been speculating about for some time Investor33

HAMM

"Doc, you are wrong. I am not trading never been." - 8th Apr

"Might have to sell half my shares, then buy back" - 5th Apr

Farm Out partner will be INDIAN or CHINESE!

Incidentally, those countries most affected by the current Geo-political supply issues and reliant on Iranian oil ;)

"Agree, Senator. The question is whether the proposal has materialised into a deal or no deal?"

Manx, if 'no deal', the 2026 Works Program would have been communicated already. The fact that we already have a Firm Proposal & thye deal was being 'concluded'strongly suggests its still 'live' and being 'concluded'

"We have no idea who the bidders are and what offer was if any! It is all mystery."

Indian & Chinese entities for a fact & as already stated!

"After two months, all we get is AGM news."

And vwe're just as likely to get the FARM OUT news in the next couple of business days & given they haven't communicated the 2026 Works Program yet.

Why do we think that is?

Very likely as the Farm Out deal is being concluded, said Operational Update being communicated already if the Farm Out development wasn;t part of it.

Engage the brain Hamm!

"if there were a firm proposal, it’s hard to understand why there’s been no update at all."

There's no 'IF' Hamm - there has been a FIRM PROPOSAL, as officially communicated by the Company via RNS. It may be hard for you to understand but these sorts of deals have timelines that operate independently of your personal, trading driven agenda.

Hope that helps

As above, given he's now suggesting the Company is communicating 'Fake News' in their official RNSs - Would suggest others do the same, as only way to address this reprobate!

Hamm- Have we had a FIRM PROPOSAL before?

Reported you to Admin for the 'fake news' and other nonsense!