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Good morning Rog,

Thanks for your reply. I can infer that you are some years my senior and I have to respect the insights and wisdom that only years can bring.

That said, I think it is dangerously reductive to resort to the “us/them” “good/evil” dichotomy not only from a moral/truth-seeking perspective (which as you say is beyond the scope of this internet board) but especially in terms of investment analysis.

It reduces our perspectives to normative blinkers of what “should” be going on (e.g. evil Iran should be losing, therefore they *are* losing and anyone who shows me evidence to the contrary is a propagandist) which, combined with the fact that the news we access is often significantly delayed compared to how facts manifest on the ground, risks having a material impact on our investments.

We risk becoming the famous Muhammad Sa'id al-Sahhaf – the Iraqi Minister of Information who famously gave a live television broadcast in Gulf War 2 saying they the Americans were being slaughtered and Iraq was winning, just as American tanks were rolling into Baghdad behind him. Classic.

In terms of the empirical non-moralising, non-ideologically filtered facts on the ground, it seems that the US is (temporarily or not) on the back foot in south Iraq and will consolidate in Kurdistan. This bifurcation seems, I’m sure, quite inevitable to anyone who has been watching the region for any amount of time, and could have a couple of material impacts on our investments in GKP (in my opinion, which I was trying to get across in my earlier post):

1. A concentrated (and more committed) American presence in Kurdistan is potentially beneficial for the security situation and for securing the production/supply of what GKP is selling.

2. Demand for GKP’s heavier product is likely to increase because of its increased demand, demand exacerbated by attacks on *other* infrastructures.

But,

3. The PMF and Iraqi Central Government exhibiting increasing alignment in public statements, policy and actions is quite unprecedented and indicates a consolidation of Iraqi resistance vis. American presence in Iraq.

How point 3 plays out in terms of ICG/KRG relations is probably the main risk in my view. That, and direct attacks on Kurdish infrastructure (pipeline/GKP assets), but given Point 1 above, I think the latter (direct attacks) is less likely, but not impossible.

Finally, to your points:

“As for assuming I don’t know about the political situation in this region.” – I never said nor insinuated this.

“Putinites your on the evil side. Together because the both of you seem to believe that this is a place for comments that don’t focus on GKPs prospects but are repeating propaganda in support of” – *Heavy sigh.*

I live in Dubai (Marina) if ever you fancy a drink. The explosions have become fewer but the city is still very quiet.

Hi Rog,

To your points:

“One of the devilish events that you seem so pleased to report”. -- I’m not pleased about it.

“BUT the hotel was no doubt the place of vital employment for several ordinary Kurds that need to support families.” -- I have no way of knowing. All I see is a drone going into a building with a caption saying it’s a hotel housing US forces.

“so why do they ( according to you my lord, ) deserve punishment from their own government backed forces that supports Iran against their own citizens ?” -- I haven’t insinuated that anyone deserves punishment. And the “my lord” is a bit pedantic Rog…

“However the one thing that you Putinites are most frightened of in Iran is the fact that the Iranian people hate their own leaders, hence the need to shoot and hang them if they dare to demonstrate.”. – I’m not, as you say, a “Putinites” and I don’t know why you would think that. My message was about the shifts I am seeing in US positions in Iraq, and how that might affect our investments.

“Now as this is an investment forum why don’t you spout your Putin propaganda elsewhere.”– same response as comment above. I did not mention Putin or Russia, so I am not sure how this has emerged in your reading of my post. Is this “Putin” in the room with you now, Rog?

“Leave this space for investors that wish to comment upon the prospects of GKP”. – the message was meant to be about the investment. I don’t know how you are reading my message and decoding it as moral judgments about who should die/lose their livelihoods in a Erbil hotel drone attack, or pro-Iranian/pro-Putin messaging.

“Lastly written history here clearly shows that my record regarding predictions of GKPs share price movements have been generally accurate, buy / hold”. -- Congratulations.

“In short Go and insult people elsewhere.” – I’m not sure that there is anything insulting in my post. Just an opinion on how to interpret shifting US footprint in Iraq vis-à-vis GKP investment risk.

“Try Russia although it’s not a nice place to be so I’m told.” – Again with the Russia. Where do you get this from? My post was about Iraq.

“Especially if you wish to express political opinions in the manner of those that can without fear in the wealthy west.” – Not so sure about that these days…

___

Rog, you seem hurt.

Wishing you all the best.

My last message cut off, the final sentence meant to read:

“In my opinion, if compelled to change their footprint (shall we say) in the south, then the Americans/Israeli/Western forces will double down in Kurdistan”.

I have my own opinions, as I’m sure we all do, about the moral, ideological, geopolitical and other dynamics at play here. I guess none of us have a full view of the complex realities, but on boards like this there is opportunity to hear many different perspectives. We just need to filter what is normative (i.e. what we think should happen/what we think is right) from the reality (inevitably more complex and disconcerting).

But in terms of GKP’s prospects as an investment, if the US is (publicised or not) making a strategic withdrawal of sorts to the Kurdistan region, this may bode well, because new lines are being drawn and GKP sits within them.

Whether this catalyses Kurdish independence I do not know. The Americans/Israelis invited Kurds to attack Iran but they ultimately refused, likely remembering multiple US betrayals.

Also of interest in my POV is the heavy crude aspect. I shared an article earlier, but there has also been this: https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/oil-refinery-explosion-reported-in-texas-1.500484229. “Located about 90 miles east of Houston, the Port Arthur refinery employs nearly 800 employees to "process heavy sour crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel," moving about 435,000 barrels per day.” Which means more heavy oil refining capacity is out of service for the foreseeable. (interesting q: how many refineries are designed for GKP/blend oil?)

Interestingly, Port Author is operated by Valero Energy, and is the primary supplier of military-grade jet fuel (JP-8) and diesel to Israel from the United States. “The supply chain is highly specialized because not all refineries are configured to produce JP-8, which contains specific additives (corrosion inhibitors and anti-icing agents) required for military aircraft like the F-16 and F-35.”

Meanwhile, the fire at the refinery was already the second incident in Texas in recent weeks, as a fire occurred at the Bayport Choate petrochemical plant on March 12.

Combined with Iran reducing gas exports to Turkey, and everything happening which we know about in the Persian Gulf, the Ceyhan pipeline(s) route(s) look increasingly attractive.

In my opinion, this bodes well for GKP simply because global demand for secure supplies of what GKP produces will outweigh resistance **so long as** a new security architecture (either declared to us plebs via news/statements, or simply ‘understood’ between regional actors).

I have seen videos of PMF drones flying freely over the Green Zone/Victory Base in Baghdad, attacking US radars and helicopters without resistance.

I have also seen videos/read reports of American forces evacuating from must of (southern) Iraq, with PMF declaring US/Western forces are to be confined to the protection of their commercial interests only. Many US forces being relocated to Jordan and Kurdistan. Apparently, the US seems to have acquiesced to this, as the drone attacks are relentless.

I have also read conflicting reports about Kurdistan. On the one hand, the PMF provided some days for US forces to evacuate south Iraq and only permit them to be in the north (Kurdistan). On the other hand, PMF and militias continue to attack US forces in Kurdistan (last night, a hotel in Erbil said to be housing US forces was attacked by a drone).

I have read an (unsourced) statement posted by one of the middle east telegram channels from last night that said "The Iraqi Armed Forces have been ordered to join the Popular Mobilization Forces and other groups and retaliate against American and Israeli attacks on Iraqi citizens."

And now have just found this:

"Following a new series of American strikes on the bases of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the government's National Security Council has issued an official permission to the Iraqi PMF to counter attacks by military aircraft and drones on their headquarters and formations, using available means, "in accordance with the right to respond and self-defense".

Source: https://ina.iq/en/politics/47050-ministerial-council-for-national-security-issues-key-decisions-in-emergency-meeting-to-protect-security-forces-and-iraqs-sovereignty.html

https:// ina[dot]iq/en/politics/47050-ministerial-council-for-national-security-issues-key-decisions-in-emergency-meeting-to-protect-security-forces-and-iraqs-sovereignty.html

All of this is quite unprecedented in my opinion. The Iraqi central government has regularly been at odds with PMF and they have tolerated one another, but this conflict seems to be catalysing a substantive bifurcation of Iraqi society and government/governance. The fiction of Sykes-Picot lines unable to withstand the ethnic, ideological and religious realities which years of conflict and bad blood have cast into sharp relief.

Anyone watching flights over Iraq will notice that the Americans/Israelis have stopped flying refueling tankers and other aircraft as a few of them were damaged last week. They may make incursions but it certainly does not mean comfortable air dominance. Combined with the not-so-publically-reported withdrawal of many ground forces to Jordan/Kurdistan and the ability for Iraqi militias to attack Camp Victoria daily/nightly with impunity, it really feels like the Americans are on the back foot in Iraq.

In my opinion, if compelled to change their footprint (shall we say) in the south, then the Americans/Israeli/Western forces will double down in

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