Member Info for Senator_Mendoza

Good evening,

My question is, to what extent can Erdogan move the dial on this situation? Turkey have already said the pipeline their side it ready. In my view, the sticking point now seems to be with the IOCs and Baghdad (for operational restart via new contracts) and between IOCs and KRG (regarding monies owed).

Anyone have any thoughts?

Source: kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/256368

"The Iraqi Council of Ministers has prepared an amendment to the 2024 budget law and is waiting for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani to return to Washington for final review and then sent to the House of Representatives"

Article mainly focusing on the overall budget deficit, no mention of KRG/oil exports... Would think that those issues are baked into the amended document...?

sorry if already posted:

— iraqi oil minister hayan abdul ghani said:

- kurdistan's oil exports will resume soon. we have formally requested the krg to transfer the oil to the state oil marketing organization (somo) for export through the iraq-turkey pipeline to the ceyhan port.

- we have no direct contractual relationship with oil companies operating in the kurdistan region. therefore, we have asked the krg to transfer the contracts of these companies to the iraqi government.

source: *************assyrianewsnetwork/4184

__

some other info from al-sudani's visit to the us:

international coalition forces brought in new military reinforcement from the kurdistan region of iraq, through al-waleed border crossing.

the convoy was comprised of 40 trucks carrying logistical equipment, weapons and closed boxes, where 15 of said trucks arrived at tel baydar base in al-hasakah countryside.

*************assyrianewsnetwork/4176

___

images posted of the sumerian artifact being "returned" to iraq by the united states. it was found in the ancient city of ur, and it is a depiction of a sumerian priest.

these artifacts were buried under the foundation of the sumerian temple building to purify and protect the land.

*************assyrianewsnetwork/4171

___

plus a couple of arms deals (obvs) and a $50 million loan to help finance small and medium-size businesses in iraq.

all feeling quite cordial isn't it?

when will apikur give an update?

Today, Thursday, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani met with major American companies specialized in the field of oil and gas, as part of a round table held by the Arab-American Bilateral Chamber of Commerce in Houston, Texas, as part of his official visit to the United States of America.

His Excellency reviewed the government's program and its goals towards optimal investment of oil and gas, its future vision, and the promotion of further investment rounds, which includes 30 oil and gas fields and gas exploration blocks in Anbar, Nineveh, Diwaniyah, and Najaf.

Mr. Al-Sudani announced that the application time for the fifth and sixth investment round would be extended by two weeks, to give more opportunity to companies wishing to apply.

Below are the highlights of what the Prime Minister spoke at the round table meeting:

- We have developed a plan to convert 40% of our exports into oil derivatives.

- We are working on implementing a 1000MW solar energy station, in addition to a water injection project for wells.

- So far, the fifth investment round includes projects implemented by an Emirati company, Al-Hilal, and a Chinese company.

- The sixth investment round includes projects on patches and fields rich in free natural gas.

- We will sign a contract with a Chinese company to establish the Al-Faw refinery with a capacity of 300 thousand barrels per day.

___

Following on from this:

https://twitter.com/Hydikm/status/1781042307954819121

Iraq signs (https://twitter.com/Hydikm/status/1781042307954819121) with American company, General Electric Vernova, for a series of investment and development projects pertaining to energy in Iraq, most notably supplying the Iraqi national grid with an additional 3 gigawatts of energy generated from highly efficient combined cycle power plants.

Nothing we didn't already know but a nice overview.

https://amwaj.media/article/deep-dive-iraq-s-prime-minister-embarks-on-first-visit-to-dc

Have a great weekend! Hopefully an exciting week ahead for us

Thank you for this @otmansalamat and those who share things.

I think this and recent news confirms ICG approach is firmly the second option I aired in a previous message: Baghdad to let the KRG pipeline stand, and fully circumvent KRG altogether. While this always was a politically imperative for ICG (to undermine KRG economic-political autonomy), I had thought the US would have an interest in maintaining oil flows through the KRG pipeline.

Yet, especially given that Russia's Rosneft are part-owner of the Kurdish pipeline, it seems the US has an incentive to support (or at least not protest too much about) ICG circumventing KRG pipeline.

"The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would effectively allow Baghdad to gain full control of Kurdish oil once it is produced. Baghdad will force foreign oil companies who have contracts with the Kurds to renegotiate with Baghdad to sell their oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline instead, which will completely cut the Kurds out and eventually make it impossible for foreign companies to operate there."

I guess we'll get confirmation of this during al-Sudani's visit next week. As far as I know, KDP still boycotting the elections/toys out of the pram. Seems like this is finally getting resolved, the uncertainty shall soon disspitate, and a the new reality will settle in.

The question of "which pipeline" seems close to being answered; next uncertainty in my POV is content of new contracts with ICG.

And, if the KRG pipeline can now be considered out of the picture, what are IOC options for reaching export markets?

Wishing you all the best.

Thanks @ValueS and all those who share news.

So does this mean we should expect Kurdish Pipeline to be fully excluded?

What are the implications of this for GKP?

It's wonderful to see the rise in SP from all the excitement today - gives a preview of how this may pop once the dust settles!

In my previous messages I considered whether the soon-to-be-repaired alternative "Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline" would be used to a) supplement the Kurdish pipeline, or b) outright replace it, leaving KRG seriously undermined.

My premise is that it makes perfect strategic sense to circumvent Krudistan altogether if possible (and as we are reading, it is possible), thereby undermining their economic and thus political autonomy. This seems to be happening.

What I would like to know is how GKP would fare if the new reality is closer to Option B (Kurdish pipeline ignored; all oil must go through newly repaired and ICG/SOMO-controlled Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline).

Dohuk to Kirkuk is a 3 hour drive give or take...

What are everyone's thoughts about the operational and financial implications for GKP, if this turns out to be the case?

Hi Broadford,

Thanks for the reply.

To your question, I personally think KRG will become increasingly subordinate to ICG and that the current situation(s) are something Baghdad is trying to leverage, to apply maximum pressure on KRG.

GKP is in a fantastic position and going concern with or without the pipeline, so glad to hear your answer. The pipeline seems more an issue of market access/profitability rather than economic viability.

If and when this settles down, KRG subordinated to ICG (which seems increasingly like what is going on given the news noise), and new contract terms with ICG, upside looks great to me.

I just wish that the dust would hurry up and settle already...!

Itsaponzi (and others),

What happens when the pipeline contract runs out?

I am not clued up about this pipeline contract, would appreciate any information. As I understand it, contract is between ICG and GKP for use of... the Kurdistan-Ceyhan pipeline which we are all waiting to restart?

GKP still have a license to drill/extract oil from the asset (so nothing changes there?)

So what are the options/scenarios in the event that the current pipeline contract expires?

Thanks in advance,

"The Iraqi Foreign Minister, who is currently on an official visit to Washington, told Kurdistan24 that the issue of resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan Region will be one of the agendas of the Sudanese visit to the White House. He said the United States insists on banking reform in Iraq".

...

"More than 20 Iraqi banks have been banned by the US Treasury Department from dealing in dollars and can only operate inside Iraq. The deputy governor of the Iraqi central bank said they are in constant contact with the US Treasury Department to lift the blockade on Iraqi banks".

Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254781

Interesting that Caggins recently alluded to the potential for more sanctions (in the context of preventing Iranian oil coming to market) for the first time. Carrot and stick for ICG to restart pipeline?

Related to the payment of funds from ICG to KRG, and in the context of banking services in Iraq, there seems to be a big push for KRG civil servants to require a bank account now, and a pig push for use of the "My Account" app. Seems to be a drive towards less cash/more accountability of where any funds end up.

Also FYI, snippets of news from an account called KurdishFront (March 23 - 25):

KurdishFront: "The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is withholding the distribution of February salaries for civil servants until the Iraqi government provides the full budget for security forces, according to Finance Minister Awat Sheikh Janab.

This decision follows a six-month period during which civil servants received only their January salaries."

--- KRG putting priorities first, spending what little they have to maintain their power/security apparatus.

KurdishFront: "Sulaimani: protesting teachers were prevented from reaching Dabashan, the residence and headquarters of Bafel Talabani, where they planned to demand direct salary payments from Baghdad and reject the KRG's MyAccount service. At least eight protesting teachers were detained."

--- The civil servants and citizenry seem to be perfectly willing to bypass KRG administration and any nationalistic sentiments of autonomy just to get paid what they are owed. Favour moving more towards the central administration in Baghdad (who must be delighted at these developments - and can wait).

The KRG as an administration must be under incredible pressure right now, probably why we saw the KRG finance minister give specific details about the number of barrels sold/revenue generated. Feels like KRG are saying "we've done everything you want - you win". Only sticking point I can gather is KRG unwillingness to account for the names/identities of security Kurdish forces (something which Baghdad has recently insisted on to ensure "accountability" of payments).

It really feels like many dynamics are reaching their conclusion and one way or another, the dust is going to settle soon...

Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254731

Translated Extracts:

"The report states: Since April 1, 2023, the nine oil fields have produced 45 million barrels of oil, of which 11.8 million barrels have been delivered to the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

The process of handing over the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) oil to the Iraqi Oil Ministry began on June 25, 2023 and continued until early December last year, but according to Awat Sheikh Janab, Minister of Finance and Economy of the Kurdistan Region and did not send transportation to the Kurdistan Region.

Iraq's negligence in paying the cost of oil production and transportation has led the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to suspend oil deliveries to the Iraqi Oil Ministry since early December.

When the amount of oil handed over to the Iraqi Oil Ministry, the total volume of oil production in the Kurdistan Region, only 33 million 900 thousand barrels of oil remains for the Kurdistan Region.

The amount of oil will be divided into two parts, one part of the share of companies, which is 45%, which is about 15 million 250 thousand barrels and the other part remains for the Kurdistan Regional Government, which is about 18 million 650 thousand barrels.

*Domestic oil sales and refining

After the suspension of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region, domestic production of fuel products increased, in this context, the Ministry of Natural Resources through both refineries Kar and Lanaz increased the level of domestic gasoline production, resulting in a significant reduction in gasoline prices.

According to the report of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, more than a million barrels of oil produced were given to the two refineries and they produced gasoline and put it on the market at a reasonable price. As a result, the price of normal gasoline has dropped to less than 780 dinars.

As a result, 17.65 million barrels of oil remained to be sold by the Kurdistan Regional Government, which sold at an average price of $31.3 per barrel, bringing the total revenue to $552.445 million.

The average monthly revenue from oil sales last year was less than $50 million, of which the cost of electricity production was paid to Dana Gas, which was between $22 million and $24 million a month They were all given oil last winter."

"There are some groups and parties inside Iraq that do not want the Kurdistan Region to have a strong economy, are jealous of the region and do not want to be developed, said the United States wants the Kurdistan Region to be strong and resume oil exports"

Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254675

KRG Finance Minister recently gave an interview discussing the budget issues, you might be interested:

Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254619-

APIKUR made a statement (nothing new really, but interestingly, first time Caggins alluded to sanctions:

"'Iraq is constantly being exempt from sanctions for importing electricity from Iran, when it should have strengthened its energy infrastructure through more oil exports,' he said."

Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254620

Have a great Sunday

Source: https://twitter.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1771194036583321941

Nouri al-Maliki, leader of ‘State of Law' coalition, in an interview, stated:

"During a phone call with Masoud Barzani, he assured me that the KDP will not withdraw from the Kurdistan elections. However, they are awaiting the interpretation of the Federal Court's decision."

See also: https://twitter.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1771494350951788699

"According to several media reports, as well as a statement from Masoud Barzani himself during his meeting with the U.S. ambassador, the KDP has likely rescinded its decision to boycott the upcoming Kurdistan elections.

There are two primary reasons for the KDP's reversal:

1. The KDP has concluded that their unilateral boycott would further exacerbate the situation and negatively impact the legitimacy of the constitutional structure of the Kurdistan Region, as conveyed by foreign diplomats, including the U.S. ambassador.

2. The KDP found itself isolated, as all other major Kurdish parties have committed to participating in the elections as scheduled, including the PUK, Social Democratic Party, Gorran Movement, Communist Party, New Generation, Justice Group, Islamic Union, People's Front (Lahur Sheikh Jangi), and the National Stance Front (Ali Hama Saleh)."

My thoughts: KDP not happy with reduced economic autonomy and thus political economy; throws its toys out the pram (appeal to US; publicly rejects Iraq Supreme Court rulings; declares rather publicly its boycott of the elections...) then backtracks on these after visits from US officials/recognizing they will not get the support necessary to follow through.

Does this mean KDP/KRG accepting the new reality of a smaller piece of the economic-political pie that is northern Iraq?

Maybe over the past few weeks and months, Barzarni/KDP et al have concluded that a smaller piece of the pie is better than no pie...

In this context, repairing and restarting the Kirkuk-Mosul-Turkey is (from ICG POV) a wise play, with two logical conclusions:

1. Securing its own oil route to northern export markets (still via Turkey) removing all reliance on pipelines transiting KRG-controled territories (using this as leverage to negotiate terms of restarting the Kurdish pipeline - and both ultimately operating together).

2. Securing its own oil route to northern export markets (still via Turkey) removing all reliance on pipelines transiting KRG-controled territories (and leaving the Kurdish pipeline to rot, as a sardonic symbol of failed Kurdish secession attempts).

My opinion: Option 1 is most likely.

It makes sense for ICG to completely remove any reliance on pipelines controlled (to whatever degree) by KRG. Increases leverage; diminishes KRG economic autonomy. In this context, recent/repetitive statements ("we're studying proposals etc") is likely playing for time until Kirkuk pipeline operational, and Kurdish pipeline becomes a moot point.

Turkey must already b

Found on:

https://twitter.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1771215680588706084

Source: "Kurdistan Watch" (not sure what the political bias of this outfit is, any ideas?)

Text:

"Iraq Revives Kirkuk-Mosul-Turkey Pipeline to Replace KRG's Oil Export Route

The Iraqi Oil Ministry is reportedly currently working on restoring the Kirkuk-Mosul-Turkey oil pipeline, with expectations of completing the project within the next two months -- intended to replace the KRG pipeline -- and has the capacity to transport over one million barrels of oil per day.

The pipeline system consists of two separate lines: a 40-inch line and a 46-inch line, both possessing the combined capacity to transport 1.6 million barrels of oil per day.

The pipeline route will originate from the Kirkuk oil field (K1) and Talward, proceeding to the Riyadh district of Hawija, then to Beji, and subsequently to Fatja, Mosul, and finally reaching the MS station in western Zakho. Employees of the Northern Oil Company who are present there will monitor and measure the oil shipments twice daily.

Iraq will be obligated to pay a fee to Turkey for each barrel of oil exported per an agreement amended in 2003, stipulating a fee of 70 cents per barrel if the export volume surpassed 400,000 barrels, and 112 cents per barrel if the export volume fell below 200,000 barrels."

Thanks Broadford,

Thank you, appreciate both the tone and the reply! So it is an issue for the pipeline (market access) rather than exploitation of the asset itself. Good to know!

Follow-up question for me to you (or anyone) is: do you think the continued lack of pipeline (international market) access is already baked into the current SP/trading range?

My thinking is, if yes, then the potential upside is fantastic. If no, then the SP could still have a way to fall and normalise?

Hi Broadford,

I know I might sound really stupid asking this, but it has been one of my outstanding questions to myself about GKP.

What happens when this agreement ends? For example, terminated by one party, or simply expires?

Does it mean GKP no longer has the right to drill Shaikan or other assets?

Is that simply a case of ICG saying "Thanks, but the agreement is over now, pack your bags"?

Again, will probably sound stupid, but I don't have an answer to this and I don't mind admitting I don't know.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Surfit,

Thanks for the reply. Just my opinion, but I see Kurdistan24 as very pro-KDP/Barzarni and should be seen as such. It does not mean useful information can't be gleaned from it, but as a news outlet I see it in that pro-KDP bias/context. Examples include lauding Barzani's recent trip to the US (whilst he was incidentally answering a court summons lol) being portrayed as a matter of Kurdish statesmanship, and the consistent noise about how Kurdistan 'needs American troops to stay' (diverging from the noise, whether substantive or not, originating from Al-Sudani/ICG) and how recent Supreme Court rulings are 'against the Kurds' (my translation: reducing KDP/Kurdish power).

In this trend of declining power, are the Kurds going to fight back, Peshmerga/insurgency style against ICG? I think not. The teachers and civil servants just want to be paid, and they are willing be paid from ICG rather than from Kurdistan. KDP boycotting elections is a crazy development IMO. My view is the KRG will be reduced to an administrative entity proper as statehood (and even the level of economic autonomy it has hitherto exercised) continued to ebb further away. (I have no idea how KRG political elites will adapt to this new reality...). Erdogan visiting Kurdistan is important, for the cameras, for the administrators there, but the decision-making power in most matters (PKK insurgency, pipeline, water issues, Iraq-Turkey trade route) is clearly in Baghdad now.

I believe this is GOOD for GKP. We need those contracts legitimized and with ICG to ensure a path to development. Deal direct with ICG. This situation is therefore necessary and a good thing, but as it comes to a head, the devil will be in the details... (contract terms).

Seplat, I agree with you 100% that "financial logic will be vindicated". The pipeline will almost certainly open, and I am really encouraged by all the positive noise in the media from Iraqi officials who seem willing to (somehow) honour the outstanding $150m owed to GKP. I think we are at a transformative stage for GKP and once passed, the firm can finally get on with its FDP and ramp up production...

I am a novice and these are just my thoughts. I have been a passive observer of this share for about 10 years now lol, but I am not an expert. I really value some of the contributions and perspectives on boards like this. A valuable source of news and information. I also get the impression that some here are quite older (and potentially wiser). It is good to always be in learning mode.

In the early days discussion about GKP was focused on Shaikan, the asset and the operational aspects of things. Nowadays it is more about the geopolitics: the asset is fantastic, the company is doing well, but it is the external dynamics which are buffeting this ship. Once those calm down, I hope the firm will finally have the opportunity to implement the updated FDP and reinstate dividends.

Wishing you all the best.

FWIW it is exactly because of these sentiments and reactions that I never bothered to post.

I'm not sure why you would think anything I wrote is not valid or some how propaganda...

If I find some news on Telegram or elsewhere which looks interesting I might share it, could be useful, maybe not.

Wishing you all well.