Member Info for Senator_Mendoza

My take is that the oil pipeline is not a primary concern for ICG or Turkey. Turkey places greater priority on PKK/threats to the Iraq-Turkey trade route, which is of greater strategic value. Opportunistically, Turkey also sees Iraq as a fertile place for Turkish companies to do business, especially in the context of the Iraq-Turkey trade route. As I see it, ICG (wants) Turkey to stop violations of sovereignty/incursions into its territory and (needs) water. The Kurdistan-Ceyhan pipeline is probably a secondary or tertiary matter for these two stakeholders. Again, just my perception: Turkey is not worried about the pipeline because its restarting/utilisation (on the Turkish side) is inevitable simply, and until then, they are accruing non-usage fees which can be offset against any arbitration fine payable to ICG. On the other hand, ICG has more of a financial imperative to get oil flowing again, but (IMO) the strategic value of denigrating KRG autonomy and utlising this time to capitalise on the political fracturing which results from the economic losses is to politically valuable - more so than any revenues which can be gained from the Turkey-Ceyhan pipeline in the near term. In this context, the Zoom article may have simply been a "shots fired" discourse suggesting that ICG can and will consider circumventing Kurdistan entirely (or by extension, setting the tone for a future scenario where all Kurdish oil must go through ICG-controlled refineries to be considered legitimate - I don't know).

For the political elites in Kurdistan, I think the situation is quite acute. KDP is apparently boycotting the upcoming elections, meaning they might lose any claim they had (rightly or not) to a democratic mandate to rule/govern; PKK are now public enemy number 1; PUK (if I remember rightly) appealed to the Iraq Supreme Court (indicating some acquiescence; in contrast, all Barzarni-KDP media have been reiterating how 'unconstitutional' Iraq Supreme Court rulings have been)... so I really don't know how the politics in Kurdistan will play out or what will happen after the elections.

In the context of GKP, I think this situation has been a long time coming and I am hopeful/expectant of a resolution in my lifetime (lol). The KRG referendum didn't get the international backing necessary to bring it to fruition, so from that point economic and political autonomy of the region has been slowly eroded. For GKP, the main benefit I see is that its contracts (in whatever form they take) will be legal, and with the Iraqi Central Government, ultimately with a pipeline to world markets and a more stable business environment (in the context of the Iraq-Turkey trade corridor, and with internal Iraq-Kurdish jurisprudence being resolved) - in my opinion, a best case scenario. Question then is about the contents/terms of the contracts.

Hi Seplat,

I'm not taking a side - I'm simply sharing something I saw on Telegram and did not see before.

In my view, KRG have been persistent in taking an autonomous path of development for a long time, culminating in the referendum, and other political actions which diverge from ICG. I think recent Iraqi Supreme Court rulings are indicative of this new wind of ICG seeking more control over KRG direction/policy, and the Paris ruling knocks the economic wind out of KRG's sails. KRG begging the US for help and boycotting elections is symptomatic of this economic deflation and the new political dynamics.

That's just how I see it, but I do not necessarily think any of this is negative for GKP. I am just trying to understand the nuances of it all. I like the varied opinions on this board.

FWIW, I'm a long-term holder, been in since 2009/2010 (I think) when the SP was about 30p in old money. I was in my early 20s then and only had a few hundred quid in here (big money for me back then), but felt like I won the lottery. Topped up considerably from then on. Decided not to sell when it touched £4 in old money when I was at university - we live and learn. I used to watch the iii website boards a lot (I remember people like MikeyAdmin, and BBBSheep and some guy called Chocolate Chip Cookie). I went through the restructuring and got decimated, but didn't sell. Forgot about this share for years until I checked some years later and found that some very nice dividends had been piling up. Since then I have become more observant again... the iii board is gone but I have been passively watching this LSE board for the past year, especially since the pipeline shut down, looking for news. I have topped up since then, bringing my average down from £2.50 last year to £1.13 now.

I am happy to hold until the politics resolve themselves. Wishing all long term holders all the best, this share has been a hobby (or a bad habit) for me for over a decade now lol

I sincerely home GKP comes good and these operational and contractual issues settle down so we can get back to expanding production and paying dividends.

However from ICG point of view, this is a golden opportunity to finally subdue/corral into the fold the KRG/Kurdistan. A key element of doing that is undermining economic autonomy. The alternative pipeline that circumvents Kurdish territory and which still connects to the Turkish side of the pipeline would seem to be an excellent option for ICG.

I found this on twitter (using the word "discontinued").

https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/1769807385990685179

Does anyone have access to a detailed map of pipelines in this area they could link to? Just for reference?

Question: the source cites someone in North Oil Company, but I can't find any other news about it on other sites/any other verification. Assuming this scenario is the case (pipeline out of action), what are thoughts on implications for GKP? Obviously it can continue as a going concern (no debt and profitable), but I'm thinking in terms of revenue/profit generation potential (and dividends) if this is the new reality.

I found the full article:

https://zoomnews.info/en/36541/

No new info, just adds a bit more history.

Unfortunately, no URL was given in the Telegram post (although I recall seeing some news from Zoom News once or twice before - not sure what kind of news outfit they are).

The following image was attached to the Telegram post.

https://ibb.co/C7Xt2Zb

Is the suggestion that the Turkish pipeline will be used (avoiding non-use fees) but that ICG will supply the Turkish pipe by circumventing KRG?

Has anyone seen anything about this? Telegram post left no link.

"The Iraqi government has commenced the repair of its aging oil pipeline while discontinuing the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline, a source from the North Oil Company in Kirkuk disclosed to Zoom News. The source further indicated that 80 percent of the repair work has already been completed.

The source revealed that the Iraqi Ministry of Oil has accelerated the renovation and reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Turkey pipeline, which transports oil from the Kirkuk oil fields through the Nineveh governorate to Turkey, bypassing the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline.

With 80% of the repair work completed, the pipeline is poised to resume operations within the next two to three months, facilitating the transportation of oil to Turkey. Upon completion of the repairs, the pipeline will have the capacity to transport over one million barrels per day, the source added."

Anyone know what all the 10.01k blocks are about today?