RE: Glimmer of hope.22 Apr 2024 20:51
I like him (Caggins), and I think he has been measured and appropriate in his communications (speaking, content and frequency). I just wonder when it is that individual ICOs like GKP start to negotiate directly with Baghdad - at that stage, contracts will be negotiated on a company by company basis.
So APIKUR can only take us (the collective IOCs) up to a point. When is that point?
A few months ago, after months of no progress, Caggins rightly upped the rhetoric by alluding to (every so gingerly but enough to convey a change in tone) about how US taxpayer funds are given in aid while ICG refuses to open the pipeline; about the issue of sanctions on Iraqi banks; even saying outright that ICG have publicly issued misleading statements (all true).
ICG fired shots back with statements saying that (paraphrasing here) they are the one's who are suffering the most from the pipeline shut-in, and that it is the IOCs who have not handed contracts over, and expect money for contracts ICG deem illegal and were never party to.
Then there was the American trip, and so far nothing material has followed for IOCs in Kurdistan.
So how far can we go, in terms of the collective rhetoric? I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms.
I would love a scenario where ICG cave and say "yes boys, you're owed the money and we're going to pay you out the budget and then bill KRG later" or "we'll co-opt your PSCs based on their current terms" or some other work-around, but the reality is ICG are not under pressure to give ground on any of that, nor would they want to. And I do not see how IOCs collectively or individually have any meaningful leverage to shift that.
Therefore, I could be wrong, but now that the US trip has concluded and Erdogan's visit has also concluded, bar any meaningful news tomorrow, it seems next steps are either APIKUR think about arbitration, or the IOCs start to - publicly or not - talk to ICG and ascertain the shape of their new (legal) contracts.
Just some thoughts.
Wishing you all the best
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