The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Thanks for sharing this, good afternoon.
This for me is the most relevant thing for us to be hearing right now re: arriving at the new settled normal, and gives me grounds to be cautiously optimistic. If the translation is correct, APIKUR have had a meeting - I do wish more context would have been given (I.e. when, after Ergodan?) But also appreciate we shouldn't expect a blow by blow account.
I am encouraged that APIKUR are being included and recognized (my fear was FGI might play hardball and seek to delegitimise them by omission/ignoring, especially after latest FGR comments abo8lut APIKUR "meddling in internal affairs" etc).
Reference to a "coalition" seems ambiguous, might allude to political factions and a coalition of the willing...
I think it is positive. Things are happening in areas which are most relevant to pushing things forward towards the new normal: APIKUR/IOCs/FGI/KRG.
The GKP fundamentals are attractive and remained unchanged (at least to me). Whichever way the PSC falls/is interpreted, I still think there is sufficient time for GKP to realise value - pipeline or not. Market doesn't seem willing to value this below a quid at least for now.
Waiting for AKIPUR update and the all-important GKP RNS...
Wishing you all, all the best.
This article emphasizes non-oil revenues, but as non-oil/oil revenues inevitably exhibit some overlap when it comes to civil servant salaries, this was interesting:
"A technical delegation of the Ministry of Finance and Economy of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) led by Mohammed Abdulqadir, Director General of Accounting of the Ministry, arrived in Baghdad this morning [i.e. Sunday]"
Source: https:// www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/256957-
Yes I agree! It seems quite positive. One more thing I would add to your observations: it gives the impression that KRG and IOCs (or at least GKP) are carrying on with the PSC 'business as usual' (at least as much as we can call it 'usual' given the circumstances/this part of the world).
Sends a signal to Baghdad (?): "we're carrying on with the PSCs, which remain valid"
In the context of gggg21's post of KRG MNR's strong public announcement (Https ://gov .krd/mnr-en/activities/news-and-press-releases/2024/april/statement-by-the-ministry-of-natural-resources-of-krg/), this suggests KRG and IOCs/GKP have adopted a common position vis-a-vis Baghdad.
Moreover, KRG elections recently postponed (a result of KDP standing firm with their boycott?) and Nechirvan Barzani in Baghdad this weekend meeting with Al-Sudani and the interim parliamentary speaker also seem to signal ongoing backdoor discussions regarding a final resolution (source: hxxps :// www. kurdistan24. net/en/story/34720-Kurdistan-Region-President,-Iraqi-premier-highlight-latest-political-developments-in-Iraq)
Regarding the GKP, any dear accountants/quants who can forecast how the value of licence, rental and security fees could make a dent in the $151m owed, and over what timelines?
A way for KRG to pay down the $151m owed to GKP??
"The value of licence, rental and security fees has been accrued and is not expected to be paid, but rather offset against historic revenue due from the KRG, which have not yet been recognised in the financial statements."
In my view, this seems like a positive to GKP's cash position.
However, I'm not an accountant - any on here?
From Telegram:
The Kormor gas field in Chamchamal was targeted, and according to preliminary information, the field was attacked with drones.
The attack was carried out on the Kormor gas field in Qadir Karami district of Chamchamal district, Sulaymaniyah province, where Dana Gas Company operates.
__
Channel 8 has now confirmed that 2 people have been killed and 6 have been wounded.
Gas field is being evacuated; announcement urges employees to remain where they are (until security forces arrive)
Electricity production of 2500 MW is out - heavily affecting the public electricity grid.
__
Channel 8: peshmerga Commando forces have been dispatched to the Kormor gas field to respond to any potential further attacks.
__
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani has directed the Iraqi Joint Forces Command to collaborate with the 70th Peshmerga Force to investigate the attack on the Kormor gas field.
@KurdishFrontNews
Source: hxxps :// t. me /KurdishFrontNews/7293
"Epicor said its member companies are ready to resume oil exports under current conditions in the interests of the Iraqi people and their partners.
Meanwhile, a source in the Federal Oil Ministry told Iraqi media that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has officially asked the Federal Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani to allow the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region through the Turkish port.
According to the same source, OPEC has asked the Iraqi oil minister to allow the Kurdistan Regional Government to export 200,000 barrels of oil per day through the Turkish port.
What was the Iraqi oil minister's response to OPEC's request? The source said Hayyan Abdul Ghani has sent the request to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani and is awaiting his response."
Source: hxxps:// www. kurdistan24. net/ckb/story/256626
Anyone know anything about this?
___
🇹🇷 — Rudaw reports that since yesterday, the supply of liquefied gas from Sulaimani to Erbil and Duhok has been fully stopped. A high-ranking KDP official in Erbil asserted, "The obstruction is entirely 100% political in nature."
However, the director of the implementing company, which has close ties to the PUK, refuted the claim of political motives and stated that gas supply to Erbil and Duhok would resume later today.
Source: hxxps:// t. me /AssyriaNewsNetwork/4297
hXXps:// rudaw .net /sorani/business/230420244
I like the tone - not sure how helpful it will be, but very assertive. Seems like they feel they're in a corner and need to come out fighting.
"While the MOI publicly refers to that committee as the “Federal Supreme Court”, everyone knows that it is no such thing."
"Those eminent opinions have, quite rightly, been the basis of hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, including a great deal of western investment, in Iraqi Kurdistan."
Translation (?): we've sought legal opinion and feel confident in our case if sent to international arbitration.
Reminds me of this recent article (April 1st, KDP author)
hxxps:// www. washingtoninstitute. org/policy-analysis/federal-supreme-courts-role-iraqs-eroding-democracy
Do you think these initial manuvours for a upcoming legal battle in international courts?
Iraqi Government Spokesman Bassem Awadi:
- Companies with existing contracts with the KRG must transfer those contracts to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil.
- The issue of KRG oil exports has already been resolved and agreed upon with Turkey, so an agreement between the KRG and the Iraqi government should be reached too.
@KurdishFrontNews
Source: hxxps :// t. me/ KurdishFrontNews/7183
Dated yesterday afternoon.
I think the next meaningful milestone to watch for is announcements from APIKUR/IOCs/GKP.
Baghdad oil minister is on record requesting oil, "we're ready for export", etc. I don't see them doing anything else on this matter.
KRG government making noises but essentially impotent at this stage. I don't see how they can do anything more here.
Ball is in IOC/APIKUR court...
Wait 15 months /or/ arbitration /or/ hurry up and sign new contracts (maybe concurrently pursuing KRG for monies owed through courts).
Therefore, I think the next time we hear anything meaningful will be from IOCs/APIKUR. Hopefully an update will come soon.
I like him (Caggins), and I think he has been measured and appropriate in his communications (speaking, content and frequency). I just wonder when it is that individual ICOs like GKP start to negotiate directly with Baghdad - at that stage, contracts will be negotiated on a company by company basis.
So APIKUR can only take us (the collective IOCs) up to a point. When is that point?
A few months ago, after months of no progress, Caggins rightly upped the rhetoric by alluding to (every so gingerly but enough to convey a change in tone) about how US taxpayer funds are given in aid while ICG refuses to open the pipeline; about the issue of sanctions on Iraqi banks; even saying outright that ICG have publicly issued misleading statements (all true).
ICG fired shots back with statements saying that (paraphrasing here) they are the one's who are suffering the most from the pipeline shut-in, and that it is the IOCs who have not handed contracts over, and expect money for contracts ICG deem illegal and were never party to.
Then there was the American trip, and so far nothing material has followed for IOCs in Kurdistan.
So how far can we go, in terms of the collective rhetoric? I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms.
I would love a scenario where ICG cave and say "yes boys, you're owed the money and we're going to pay you out the budget and then bill KRG later" or "we'll co-opt your PSCs based on their current terms" or some other work-around, but the reality is ICG are not under pressure to give ground on any of that, nor would they want to. And I do not see how IOCs collectively or individually have any meaningful leverage to shift that.
Therefore, I could be wrong, but now that the US trip has concluded and Erdogan's visit has also concluded, bar any meaningful news tomorrow, it seems next steps are either APIKUR think about arbitration, or the IOCs start to - publicly or not - talk to ICG and ascertain the shape of their new (legal) contracts.
Just some thoughts.
Wishing you all the best
Baghdad’s maneuvering here is intended to lead to the revocation of the KRG’s semi-autonomous status, and international oil companies are now being pressured to sign new contracts with Bagdad for their oil and gas operations on Kurdish territory.
Source: oilprice com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kurdish-Media-Allege-OPEC-Request-for-Resumption-of-Oil-Exports-to-Turkey.html
Company/APIKUR Update soon?
Three-point action plan
1. JH/GKP gets a confirmation in writing from the ICG/Iraq federal court that the PSC with KRG is illegal, and thus null/void (which Baghdad have been saying all along anyway).
Frees him from current PSC (which is simply dead in the current circumstances – so quicker we mourn and move on, the better).
PSC with KRG now a separate matter. Separate committee/litigation between GKP/KRG. Whatever.
2. JH/GKP begin bilateral negotiations on new contract terms with ICG/SOMO. Make the case regarding sunk costs/ investment recoverable/ etc.
New contact – less lucrative, but legal and gives certainty.
Move forward
Sunshine and rainbows
3. Profit????
APIKUR was a good move, they tried it, but it’s not conducive for progress now. Lack of statement, movement etc. following the US visit shows that. It served a purpose but like Mr Caggings said, oil companies will be the ones signing contracts and that will be that.
Thanks SpArmada, appreciated.
Does anyone have a link to the full text without paywall?
Does the aritcle mention anything about actions of the IOCs ??
Thanks for the response Belgrano.
I also think the key dynamic here is the desire to undermine KRG economic autonomy/extend ICG economic control. In my view, ICG can wait, whereas KRG (specifically KDP) maybe cannot wait as long. More time that passes, the more likely Kurds will be willing to accept the new realities - we are already seeing that with ICG paying salaries. KDP as far as I know are still boycotting the local elections (I think they are the only ones to do so, too - probably because they have the most to lose from this new reality, but continuing their boycott illustrates their isolation).
All that context aside, in my mind the key news I am looking out for is what I think will most likely happen: IOCs such as GKP going to ICG/SOMO to discuss new contracts - totally outside the purview of KRG.
Probably less favourable than current PSC, but in exchange we get legality, contractual certainty. Implication for recovering debt is not good; Baghdad clearly see that as a separate issue between KRG and IOCs. Fine.
IMO it's GKP's turn to approach Baghdad and start talking about new contracts. Us hiding behind any PSCs made with the KRG is not helping us move forward - especially when Baghdad have repeatedly called them illegal etc...
Small holding compared to some on here I'm sure. I'm averaging at 113, and love to see the SP above that. Not been trading it, holding out for a new operating scenario/rerate and dividends - but it is wild to watch the swings in SP. Once the real news actually breaks, this thing is going to pop~~~
I still don't understand how any announcement can change anything.
The issue is with the IOCs and ICG (contracts), right?
What am I not seeing lads?
🇮🇶🤝🇹🇷 — erdogan’s itinerary while in iraq:
- a meeting between al-sudani and erdogan at baghdad's republican palace.
- signing ceremony of agreements and memorandums of understanding.
- press conference between erdogan and al-sudani
- erdogan’s visit to erbil governorate, 7:30 pm.
- a meeting between barzani and erdogan.
the delegation accompanying erdogan:
- foreign minister hakan fidan
- defense minister yasar guler
- the minister of interior
- the minister of trade
- the minister of transport
- the minister of agriculture and forestry
- the energy minister
- the minister of natural resources
- the minister of industry and technology
source: hxxps:// ****/assyrianewsnetwork/4278
__
🇹🇷 — sources indicate there will be two meetings during erdogan's visit to erbil. the puk will participate in the first meeting, which is of a protocolary nature, where non-critical issues will be addressed. however, the puk will be excluded from the second meeting, chaired by masoud barzani, where substantive matters such as the pkk and oil will be discussed.
source: hxxps:// ****/assyrianewsnetwork/4281
Good evening,
My question is, to what extent can Erdogan move the dial on this situation? Turkey have already said the pipeline their side it ready. In my view, the sticking point now seems to be with the IOCs and Baghdad (for operational restart via new contracts) and between IOCs and KRG (regarding monies owed).
Anyone have any thoughts?
Source: kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/256368
"The Iraqi Council of Ministers has prepared an amendment to the 2024 budget law and is waiting for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani to return to Washington for final review and then sent to the House of Representatives"
Article mainly focusing on the overall budget deficit, no mention of KRG/oil exports... Would think that those issues are baked into the amended document...?