Member Info for Senator1

Lowest closing low of last 10 years and 203 the low. If it goes there (which my guess it will) it breaks the big figure and then its ugly.

They lapsed because the old options had exercise price based around the market price at award and since management drove the share price down they were worthless and so lapsed. They then came up with the brillant idea to grant 1p options so even this incompetent lot couldnt mess that up. BTW they were awarded on the 2021 financial year that lapsed. 48% of the award is based on growing AUM. Any idiot can grow AUM. What takes more effort is growing AUM at the right price. This has been a 9 year failure with the same people and they have awarded themselves millions. Wilkinson's total renumeration in 2025 was £1.7M, totally ridiculous. Until the market sees this culture of payment for failure go, this sp will go nowhere. Its biggest shareholders are a passive manager and the debt management office of Ireland. On the buybacks, the ones that dont work are the ones at a size where it is embarrasing. A £30M buyback is easy to ignore. Hank Paulson at the time of Tarp said it best. If you are going to send a message to the market you take out a bazoka, not a water pistol.

The 1p options they have issued in last few years rather than a market strike at time of issue. Win win for management

It is certainly a "slow burn", management and Board slowly burning shareholder capital for their own benefit.

Blackrock are by far Moltens biggest shareholder with 22.3M shares followed by the NTMA. In all my years trading I have never heard the largest shareholder being blamed for the poor share price performance. Nope, they are not to blame. A public company holding a portfolio of private companies just doesnt work. Valuation is part technical but if you have ever run a DCF there are a lot of assumptions and picking a number for valuation only works backed by a sizable transaction and then it only gives the value to that buyer. The NDAs attached to private transactions just doesnt allow a public company to disclose the way they need to, to have an informed market. When the market is forced to guess, it is harsh. The model doesnt work and thats managemenent's fault. Its more or less the same people in senior positions since IPO.

The discount to nav at sp of 2.94 is 56.8% (incl the Treasury shares which will be cancelled). Management and Board are 100% responsible for this discount, from say 10% to the 56.8%. They are the ones that put Molten in a cash starved situation which means their buyback cant be as aggressive as it needs to be. This modern feature of everyone abdicating responsibility is ridiculous. The market doesnt believe the Board or management. The market can see this isnt a performance culture nor a dynamic management team. Two accountants facing the market and a missing in inaction chairperson, signing off on 1p options. Still no explanation of Davis's sharp ejection but yet he is a "good leaver". Draper IPOed at £3 per share in June 2016 and is now £2.94, thats a CAGR of -0.22% p.a. for 9 years. Wilkinson was CFO then. He has 561k vested shares, 819K unvested shares plus 1.3M options, £429K salary, £429k cash bonus last year and £433k carried interest. you couldnt make it up

In a year of zero net result they continue to award 1p options; Wilkinson 233,592, Chapman 231,995 and Davis 337,512 under the LTIP and then an extra award to Wilkinson of 30,669. Is it any wonder the share price goes nowhere. read the renumeration report. They get bonused for investing money, growing AUM....., everything but aligning with shareholders. This share price has been a disaster since IPO but yet the management have gor rich. 1p options, totally ridiculous. Just watch the number of options they award themselves when they actually make some money!

Depending how you calculate it, pre IFRS 16 or post, the historic EV/ebitda for BME is 5.95-6.1x. This does suggest market doesnt believe the £621M adj ebitda for 2026. As the IFRS 16 effect was £245m in 2025, I assume this will be higher in 2026 due to new stores. With the increased employee & packaging costs, £621M doesnt seem likely to me either. i would be closer to £550m.

That information shows CPB covering in January and Exodus in March. Nobody, as of yesterday, is above 0.5% the public discosure limit. Why look at information from Jan or March when the data as of yesterday is there? Shorts are not responsible for the decline of this week. That falls squarely on management. Shambles of a presentation

If someone buys, it also means someone sold. The exchange just assigns it as a buy if the offer is the execution price and a Sell if the bid is the execution price. Given the bid-offer spread on stocks today, it is a meaningless distinction. Tells you nothing.

Last night I listened to the results presentation. It was an incredibly poor effort with the questions distributed around the room and so gave a strong impression that the interim team are out of their depth. With the first Q nearly over it was incredibly stupid to not give a current trading update on the basis they never do! They seem to have forgot they are the hired help and to not bring shareholders current is always a stupid idea. Someone even said that you cannot read anything in to their lack of comment, positive or negative. Of course not, dumb rookie mistake. When you give the market uncertainty it only goes one way. The new CEO better be good as he has much to teach about communicating with the market. They say the first rule of investing is to look at the management team. The interim lot have been given a very clear message by the market.

As of June 4th there are no material shorts reported in B&M. There is only one short interest report which is produced every day for UK stocks and B&M doesnt even get on that report. so anyone saying "there will be more shorts joining....." is simply making stuff up. If its not on that report its purely guesses and speculation and not usuable information, its that simple.

The 784m op cashflow included 109m spent on inventories compared to 14m in 2024. If they have got this inventory investment right this could see a real change in the sp trajectory. If they got it wrong then it will be a problem. That is the key variable on whether this is a buy or sell. The right inventory is at the heart of retailing

217m cash and money market deposit of 150M gives them £367M of liquid resources, thats 12% of the balance sheet and more than covers, before the current year cashflow the £300M DVD cost in 2025. Obviously, with the redomicile, they want to reduce share count rather than do special DVDs and will let them more efficiently manage eps. Normally cash returns of 10% suggest distress. I dont think BME is distressed. Sure, the going is tough but they do throw off cash. over-reaction.

The DVD will be at most £5-6M a year in total (100% & Creo share half that). Its peanuts to a company of Micro-Techs size. If they can logically cut of cash from Creo with a greater goal in mind they would be crazy to think too hard about £2-3M tax efficient or not.

Can you read? Im not smearing Micro-Tech. Just saying they will have all the cards when Creo NEED to sell some more shares. Its just business. They know Creo cant go anywhere else. That is eminently sensible to me, to think otherwise is deluded. Micro-Tech is a listed company, they are not a charity. CREO should have sold 80% plus and made sure they are funded to 2028 with a margin of safety. Now they are beholden to Micro_Tech. That is an objective and rationale perspective, to think otherwise is fantasy. Business history is littered with companies with great ideas, awards to fill a bunker, that run out of cash by making poor decisions. Cash is the lifeblood of business and CREO are £12-15M short of what they need to get to cash profitability. They spent £4.6M between Feb and end of March, how long do you think £25M will last. The equity market is closed to them so their only other option is a sale of shares to a strategic buyer. You better hope that the Micro-Tech team are the nicest and fairest negotiators on the planet when the inevitable occurs. If I were CFO of Micro-Tech I would see it as an opportunity to get the rest of Europe cheap and maybe even CREO itself. All for what? A cash dividend (at Micro-Techs option) from a mature business.

If management are making decesions like this in the rest of the business I would be really worried but it does explain to me why they have been habitually wrong in their forecasts to date, nothwithstanding the start up nature of the business.

Btw, it doesnt pay profits, it pays dividends, normally 40-50% of profits if approved by shareholders.

"corridors of influence" - sound like b-s to me. A £4M rev company has no influence or significance. The eur business isnt growing and even if it grows under new leadership, the only cash CREO get is a DVD and who decides the DVD? The 51% shareholder. The chinese will know if they come calling to sell another 25%, they are desperate. They also can cut the cash DVD supply of. I dont know if they will but I would not have got myself in the position hoping they play nice! Tactically, a huge mistake. CREO management, time and time again have disappointed with their forecasts and their call on how things will play out. They will definitely need more cash and if i were the Chinese this is where I get a cheap overall deal. Dumb move by CREO management!

Assuming the interest bearing liabs are going with Europe, cash of 26 plus the 49% interest at £36M valuation, is valued greater than the current £40M market cap. Add to that the unrecognised DTA of worst case £35-40M (accumulated losses c£100M). CREO have 2 options; sell down another 29-49% of Europe or bring in a strategic shareholder and once and for all kill the negative on funding. The latter would be painful at current share price and so i expect towards year end the sale of another 29% if China dont play hardball. If China plays hardball its all very precarious and that falls 100% on management. By selling 75% they would have had an extra £15M and when you dont have it, that makes all the difference.

Currently CREO are not fully funded through to cashflow breakeven in 2028. £26M cash with cash overheads of £17-20M and a DVD of £2m from Eur(best case). So they will have to sell down the 49% which theyhave recorded at £36M. But China with 51% has control so their offering for 49% doesnt need to be aggressive. This was a bad idea, they are in a bind now as the only buyer is China. They should have made sure they had the cash to get to 2028. The fact the Board disnt feel comfortable recognising the DTA also makes me nervous. Its a big number.

Cash when disposal completed £31.2m, now we are told at 31-3-25 £26.5m