Member Info for Senator1

Short up another £100M of profit today and its not even 10am. The guys who short are typically the smartest guys in the room as it costs them real cash everyday to be short. If you are going to be the other side of the trade to institutional shorts you better be super smart and have real insight. It is patently obvious that is not you!

In total shorts increased Friday by 0.26% or near £6m. D1 reduced 18% of their exposure but they are still the largest short by near a 50% margin. DE Shaw joined the over 0.5% group. They were sitting just below the 0.5% level and raised to 0.59%. So the big boy club accounts for 4.92% of the shares and likely its even more with more sitting below 0.5%. So yes the biggest shorter reduced some but still alone at 1.46% and another joined the 0.5% club. With the OrangeMan and his redneck assistant as a back drop, I think this will go to 208p even quicker than I originally thought even though every sector in the US was up on Friday and all up very strong.

Mgmt confirmed the £5m is a real cost saving and not the result of associate accounting for Europe. Prior to deconsolidation I know o/h base running at £20M for the half year, presumably £40M full year. Now that Europe is deconsolidated what is the overhead base. Cavendish think £23M for 2025, £20M for 2026 and then £18M in 2027. Would really like a profile of the £23M. Anyone using Cavendish for executions and get how analyst has profiled this?

Im with Tom Cruise, "show me the money"

For those who insist on using it, remember it will drop by quite a bit when they go to associate accounting on the jv with MKS. I wouldnt bother working it out either way as its a totally useless measure for core Ocado.

Nav per share is totally meaningless for a technology company where the Nav is essentially capitalised cost of the R&D IP expenditure. Means absolutely nothing and should not be used to say it is over or under valued. Free cashflow is the only metric that matters and unfortunately this is negative for 2025 and 2026 as well. After that it is crystal ball stuff way out of my comfort zone. DYOR.

They have sales of £6.3M for 2025, up 50% odd. They have y/e 2025 cash at £22m and the value of the 49% at £29M. Market cap today is £60M implying core value at £9/10M. At £6.3M sales, that is 1.5x sales. If this was in the US it would be nearer 8x but its not listed in the US. I suspect Mgmt would only let Cavendish publish £6.3M if they felt very comfortable with this number and beating it. No guidance yet from mgmt on 2025 sales but I suspect that will be centre of attention when they update in April. Want to see this way in excess of £6M and maybe then it starts the jouney to Cavendish PT of 70p which would bring it more in line to a US valuation.

Depending how you calculate it that is 16-22 days to cover, so some day in the future this will have a nice bounce. Question is when? I just dont see happening in the next 3 months.

Short value just over £120 million! private investors going to have to dig deep to take this on! Coversely, when they decide to cover, it will be a good day to be long.

Big boys didnt cover a penny yesterday BUT they didnt increase. It's early days, it needs to close below 270 for a few days in a row and then that becomes resistance. It needs time to dance for a few days and the shorts look like they are happy to wait. If they felt compelled to partially cover or were nervous they had good volume yesterday to do so. they didnt budge one penny. Big money talks and they have given a clear message. Take them on at your peril! For now 208 is like a magnet, lets see how strong.

Whoever

US down hard and Tech the worst. Be amazed if this holds 270. 208 or so was closing low of last 10 years. If we get back there this has mkt cap of 1.7bn, net debt 1bn so EV=2.7bn and IF they do ebitda of 240 thats 11.25x ev/ebitda. For all the uncertainties, delays, unprofitability and cash outflows in the £200m range again in 2025, 208 would not surprise me. Will be interesting to see tomo if shorts increased today. I see no trigger for this to jump up 25%. 270 put up a good fight today and was only breached briefly. It's a bit like the alamo. The volume was the 11th highest daily volume of the last 10 years, thats significant. Even though 270 held you have to give round one to the bears. Ding ding, round 2. It won't be a knock out because they still have £700m cash but I suspect a bit more pain awaits. However, made sure they have this cash pile deserves a big bonus!

Management said 2025 EBITDA will be 240M and net interest 50M. If you assume capex and intangibles purchases still circa 400M you are at > 200M cash outflow again which excluding Autostore settlement was c.200m outflow in 2024. Why would shorts cover? We will find out in next few days. My bet is increase, they are playing with money they have made and will increase the pain! There are at least 5 big institutional shorts and two of them are trend followers and they dont care about what the funnymental people say, they will follow the trend until its disproven and so far it isnt.

Shorts didnt move going in to report, stayed at 4.66%. My guess is they increase as big losses are generally followed up in the following days. There are no guarantees but thats the way it normally works and generally you increase your risk when you are making money. We will see over next few days but thing is not only losing more money in continuing ops but cash outflows are still over £100M, over a quarter of a million pounds a day! They have had over a decade to get this right, how much longer?

Let it dance, early days

On a closing basis

The continuing business losses increased 26%! Shorts are at 4.6% of shares o/s and they have been right. If it breaks 270, it could go back to 2016 lows. From 200 to 2900 back to 200, all in a decade! 270 is the short term number to watch. 270 is a 19% sp fall so breaching 270 is a possibility.

Submiteed question, lets see what their IR is like. I suspect abysmal but lets see.

Ty but I think we need to fill this out a bit to get a better sense of the core and its sources of income. Maybe this a question for IR.

Can anyone list the top 10 core products of Creo (if they have 10) and their prices. Then we can get a sense of the the Qs