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Hi Gavster, there was video last year when Cobus mentioned 30% dividend as optimum for business. Not sure about this year. I just considered pessimistic scenario. 40% eventually might be a booster for SP.
Progress at Edison should be converted to some figures,. I would expect higher PAF production rate without load shedding, - but no real change reported up to now. At least no official statement. We likely see it as surprise.
Considering production 185kOz in 2024, POG= 2350$, AISC=1327$, Debt =$56M
In pessimistic scenario Earning should rise up to $107M, or EPS=4.8GBx
Usually Cobus insists on 30% dividend, so expected dividend will 1.44 GBx this year.
Applying PAF typical P/E ratio 6.2 the selling price will be in the range 29 - 30 GBx.
So in my analysis 12% rise from current price is guaranteed. Optimistic scenario gives SP = 51, but PAF has never developed in the most positive way. Average SP target might be around 40 this year.
BlindLeadBlind, sorry don’t catch your trick. How could you rise prise by selling? Looking at your transactions, every sell pushed price down, lower than before. Seams price was driven up by following orders. What is the science behind?
Nice chart, Gavster. Looks positive in long terms. The only concern is surge this week. Too strong momentum downwards at flat gold. Somebody needed money or burned £0.5M up to drop the price. Oversold drastically today. I guess the play has not finished yet. I will keep cash for two weeks when the trend exhausted.
Gavster, thanks! Good information about Eskom. Almost insiding. Unfortunately algos don't make any link between production and load shedding. Too complex for most of investors. I don't think take off will happen before RNS or directors deal. Still waiting for lower price to jump in. What is embarrassing that I can't predict SP at all. Yesterday it grew on falling gold, today it's falling although POG higher than yesterday.
I am targeting SP = 40 by end of next year. Seems enormous. But look at capitalisation, - only 12.5M. With permits and completed construction, mining companies with similar production capitalise in the range +100M.
I bought first stock for 23.6 when gold was 1920$/oz and PAF produced only 175koz. Now I think it was stupid investment as price could not reach even 30p at POG=2300$ and production 190koz. However enjoying with really good dividends for several years.
Figures are rather cautious considering market reaction last year. With POG = 2350$, Consort mine in PAF portfolio can be reactivated as profitable again. However it might have implication on average AISC. Actually I don’t know Cobus plans, but there are options to produce 190 - 200k this year if no major issues.