Member Info for Selpec

HelloDave, what is fascinating with this 150K Uncrossing Trade?

Another hidden signal is that Mobico has absorbed a tripling of disclosed short interest in roughly two months without making new low. 5.5% is the highest short position in MCG history, but the price finds surprising resilience. This means institutions hold while shorts rise. Eventually there are Institutions willing to lend shares to hedge funds which are betting against Mobico. Moreover borrowing rate seems low. But why? Because Institutions are willing to absorb those sales at lower price.

Interesting month ahead. There is one hidden signal I view Mobico as a fragile turnaround rather than a insolvency candidate. The ownership behaviour suggests a significant portion of the remaining holders are already expecting a multi-year recovery rather than a quick trade. However, the company has not yet delivered enough evidence to attract a broader shareholder base. In any scenario, next RNS will trigger a violent price move.

5.5% shorts cannot be cleaned in one day. Even in one week. It's only what reported over 0.5%. Presumably shorters are in much deeper hole. When the move starts, they will drastically look for liquidity. What is missing, that a lot of investors still have average over 70p here.

I hope to see a squeeeeeeeze through 40 then 50 then 60 and with top around 150p. Of course there will be temptation to sell partly at 80-120, but patience. I am not going to sell until the peak passed. Is it good plan?

Mobico is 3.5B company priced at 130M. Eventually its so cheap because of debt obligations. News says that loss-making contracts terminated, and Mobico turned to generate profit first time since 2020 pandemic. 5% reduction in debt will re-rate price by 150-200%. Of course Citadel might have some inside information like fuel prices have implication on Q2. But insiders, which potentially fed the info to shorters, are increasing their position in Mobico. Which has more weight - Cosmen with +27% in shares or Citadel with 1.16% on short.

Waw shorters are desperate. Right now over 60 consecutive sells in 4 mins. Trying to cheat algo. But lumps are tiny already. The price have not moved at all.

Shorters are trying hard today. By 09:00am I counted 23 consecutive sales of similar lumps . Their efforts deserve more than just 0.2p moved price.

High volume today might indicate shorters closed most of their positions. Will be clear in 3 days.

Buffin, can you prove it?

Interesting play here developed. Thanks to HelloDave who exposed strategic layout, I think why shorters are still sacrificing their capital. Yesterday was quite a wave, today was already weaker volume. Let's see if third wave of sacrifice takes place tomorrow. My only guess is that Cosmen uses their services to improve own position. Might be even provided own shares for shorts.

Shorters might close their positions. What I don't understand how it's possible to buy 1M shares in one trade without moving the price. Liquidity is hardly on the buyer side right now. Somebody should sell this quantity.

JamesOxford, interesting that your broker allows 3 consecutive buys.

JamesOxford, I am with you apart of US/Iran expectation. Mobico is in accumulation stage although ME conflict will hardly be finalized within following decade. The world market deals with 20% oil gap by redistribution of supply chain and higher prices. Weak economies give way to strong ones which are capable to pay premiums for oil. It should not be a problem for Mobico if it adapts with uplift on tickets. Not only Mobico, but whole transport industry has to adapt. In half-year when prices stabilize nobody will care about Iran / Strait of Hormuz. In long terms, oil is in oversupply anyway.

Apart of shorters, is anybody else worried that shorts are heavy now? Arrowstreet wants their frozen capital back since March. Time is coming.

No regret. One day does not change anything. Even one week. If AXL moves up, it will be be long run. But I need confirmation first. Lets see if price falls back to 20-21p range by Friday.

By the way, RNS does not give any guidance about potential flowrate from that well. No idea how to convert 30 feet to BOPD. If it's something like 300 BOPD net, than market is too excited today.

Last trade was only £100k but moved the price by 2.4%. Manipulation became too easy. When you follow the trend, manipulations are really annoying. IMHO Mobico capitalization is not high enough anymore.

Waiting for pullback

Tom, it's likely Clarendon Trust disposing shares. Presumably 8-9M shares left in their possession. Resistance at 22.5p level might take 3-4 weeks more.

Shorters started their game again. No surprise as their position dropped to 2% last week. They might take few weeks to grow from current 3.9% to around 10-12%. Even though the fundamentals look good, the price might struggle in May.

Still waiting for 18.5p. However if price moves through 23.0p I will also jump in.