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I'm trying to make sense of the numbers after the jiggery pokery with moving costs from PGM's to Chrome but something doesn't quite add up with the PGM numbers:

36411 ounces x average revenue US$1,009 = US$36,738,699 revenue

36411 ounces x average cost US$709 = US$25,815,399 cost

Revenue - Cost = US$10,923,300 but the figure stated in the RNS is ~US$6.7m

Combined Revenue for PGM + chrome = US$186.9m

Combined Costs for PGM + chrome = US$158m

So combined profit = US$28.9 m but in the table it's ~US$24.6m

Am I missing something or is there just over US$4m discrepancy there? Maybe I just need to stop looking for today!

Mikie, I was confused by that too, it looks like they have moved some of the costs from the PGM production to the chrome production to be more representative of reality, from what I understand the overall cost doesn't change it's just re-distributed. Frustrating because it means you can't so easily make a direct comparison with last year. The cost / PGM ounce is now US$709 when I was expecting somewhere closer to US$900. Anyway the overall numbers are not that far from what I expected.

Thanks Northern, good to know. Copper margin is tricky, as you say sulphide concentrate is cheaper to produce but lower revenue. As copper oxide production ramps up the revenue / tonne should increase but also the costs to some degree, although fixed costs / tonne should come down! All very confusing. I think from memory Leon was quoting a margin of about $3,500 / tonne at a copper price of US$9,500 so potentially about US$4,000 / tonne at current prices. That would be a nice cool US$100m earnings whenever we reach the fabled 25,000 tonnes production!

Have you had time to look over the accounts Northern? Anything unexpected?

I was a bit disappointed in the chrome margin with costs / tonne higher than expected from the interims but on closer examination I see that they have re-allocated costs from PGM production to chrome production to better represent the actual costs for each, with PGM costs coming down. Will need to look at that a bit closer.

The previous timeline was for construction HD, this is operational in November.

They are not overstating the capacity at all, it will just take time to utilise that capacity, that's what they are doing by acquiring the small scale mines and installing the concentrators. It doesn't happen overnight.

I'm pretty happy with those numbers at first read through, thats within US$1m of what my forecast was when I convert to US$. Slightly lower than I would have hoped but not by much.

One thing that caught my eye, at Thutse, TWO modules expected operational by November... that will have a big impact.

Https://www.instagram.com/makorresources/reel/DAkijXlg2pE/

Looks like Leon is in Zambia at the moment, possibly giving the Roast boys the tour. I believe they were supposed to see Roan and Munkoyo yesterday.

Here are the average metal prices for Q1 (as estimated by me!):

PGM basket: US$1,407 / ounce (currently ~ US$1,440 / ounce)

Chrome concentrate: US$306 / tonne (currently ~US$270-280 / tonne)

Copper cathode: US$9,210 / tonne (currently ~US$9,900 / tonne)

Mikie, I was thinking more along the lines of copper mines in South Africa. To date that seems to have been IRH's primary goal and I believe there has been a long history of copper mining in South Africa although maybe not so much at the present. There could be opportunities for reprocessing of historical waste dumps. I don't know, just speculating based on what IRH have invested in so far.

It's possible they might be interested in getting involved in kickstarting the hydrogen economy in South Africa which could increase the demand for platinum and other PGM's but I don't see much future for Tjate at the moment when there are already established mines closing down due to low PGM prices.

I checked the Fidelity website today and the Jubilee top shareholders has been updated to the end of September. It shows FIL Investment Services holding almost the same as it was in the August update at about 95m shares. Whoever is still selling, it doesn't appear to be FIL.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/uae-firm-signs-mou-with-pic-to-advance-south-africas-mining-green-energy-transport-and-logistics-sectors-2024-09-30

Interesting to see IRH moving into South Africa in a big way. I wonder if there might be further opportunities for Jubilee down the line?

Location of Kobold drilling and potential second drill site:

https://x.com/NavSeis/status/1840670269490241871

Dru, I think we might need to see chrome prices fall to kickstart a significant PGM rally. At the moment chrome is acting like a band-aid for those mines which produce both, allowing them to keep the mines operating while producing PGM's, potentially at a loss, and contributing to the depressed PGM price.

The chrome concentrate price reported this week, of US$270-280 / tonne, whilst still relatively high is the lowest it's been in about 18 months. It could continue lower or the recently announced Chinese stimulus package might reverse that, I guess we have to wait and see what happens.

If we do see a rally in PGM's as well as the ramp up in copper.. good times may be just around the corner! Lets hope so anyway 😉

Leon has previously said that PGM and chrome prices tend to work in opposite cycles. I hadn't really given much thought to why that might be but it suddenly occurred to me that right now, many of the PGM miners who also mine chrome as a by-product are in the same position as Jubilee. It's the high chrome prices which are keeping some of those operations viable. When PGM prices are high then chrome is just a nice little by-product, when PGM prices are low then the price of chrome becomes much more relevant. So what happens when PGM AND chrome prices are low... potentially mines reducing capacity, leading to higher PGM prices.

Here's a graph showing PGM basket and chrome prices since 2018. You can see in early 2020, when both PGM and chrome prices were depressed, there followed an increase in PGM basket price. Since then chrome prices have been relatively high, supporting the PGM miners. If we do see a decline in chrome price it's possible that a rise in PGM's may follow.

https://shorturl.at/m8WiU

You might say why expand capacity in chrome now when we are seeing historically high prices and it may well soften? In my view it's a really smart strategy. If PGM's are strong, or chrome is strong or BOTH are strong, Jubilee will be in a position to benefit, and of course they are stockpiling PGM concentrate for times when the price is stronger.

Hope you're feeling refreshed after the holiday Gray!

Yes, the US$9m spend on Sable was unexpected, originally we were told part of the placing monies would be used to:

"Expand the sulphide recovery circuits at the Company's Sable Refinery to accommodate increased sulphide concentrate production from newly acquired projects (c.US$5.7m)."

Now suddenly they are building an additional plating tank house (presumably the additional ~ US$3.3m) and yet the overall production capacity remains the same. A little irritating when things like that crop up with no real explanation.

As for the IRH deal, that's a lot of money to raise and also where would Jubilee actually process the concentrate to cathode? We will need additional refining capacity in any case, maybe that's where IRH come in.

Well it's news. Good or bad we won't find out until we see some results! To be honest I thought they would start with the C1 target where historical drilling has already happened and where BHP planned to drill when they held the license. Looks like they need more geophysics to refine a target area first.

Https://x.com/tertiaryplc/status/1839594129749160063?s=61

Yes we are still making a good profit at that level. That is historically still a very high price! It's important to remember that as the price changes, the cost to buy the RoM also changes so the impact of any change will be lessened, positive or negative. It won't have any impact on the upcoming financials or Q1 numbers anyway.