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Can you see what Lumwana, Sentinel, Enterprise and Arc's licenses have in common? It should be pretty obvious when you look at these images.....

I was just looking at the significant holders again Dru, once you subtract the placing shares which were bought and sold by FIL and CG, they have only reduced their positions by about 30-40 million shares combined, not enough to explain the significant drop since April. It may be that Jupiter is the main culprit but potentially you also have the Munkoyo shares, which may or may not have been sold. If you add that lot up it's roughly 150m shares to absorb. Generally a rule of thumb for a placing to be rinsed through is 2.5 times the placing in trading volume which would be about 375 million shares. I estimated roughly 400m traded since April when the latest decline started so we might be nearing the end of it!

Https://www.ft.com/content/9e527a46-17c9-4290-9ae2-7eccb4d0b65d

Jupiter were holding 92 million shares last year before they disappeared from the Significant Shareholders list. Later reports I've seen suggested Jupiter would be keeping half of the £1 billion of investments mentioned in that article. The gradual decline since April coincides with the reports so it could be them. Since then about 400m shares have been traded so if it is them they should be about done... I hope!

The modules are not necessarily the same size. I think you were looking at the 20,000 tpm module but the ones planned for the Waste Rock Project would be 50,000 tpm modules because they would be pushing a lot more material through them due to the scale of the project. Theoretically it would be a combined 2,000 tpm of copper from the four modules, or 24,000 tpa.

Https://fb.watch/v3-ZHomQwq/

Nice to see the government starting to give Jubilee more coverage like this.

I did have a look at the licensing Cadastre when project G was announced and found the most likely candidate just outside Mumbwa. Ricus said in the podcast that most of the mines supplying Jubilee were in the Munkoyo and Mumbwa areas so I think that's likely to be the one. It's the snappily titled "SW & GVA Mining Company" if you want to see where it is.

I suspect they would rather have paid for Project G with shares again but the pressure on the share price has made that unrealistic to do. Either way it's good news and presumably by paying cash they have negotiated a better percentage of the asset which over time will be very relevant.

Paid in cash and for a higher percentage. That should make investors feel better! Excellent news.

Very informative and enjoyable interviews. I particularly enjoyed hearing from Ricus, hope we get to hear more from him as time goes on, he gave a more detailed overview of what's going on with the operation s in Zambia. Interesting to hear about the potential glycine heap leaching at Munkoyo in the short term, I wonder if that would be in addition to the hub concentrator or instead of that?

I think with Leon constantly talking about 25,000 tonnes of copper capacity, some investors were expecting that capacity to be filled very quickly. Maybe reality is starting to set in a bit now, that it's going to be a much more gradual ramp up to that level (and hopefully well beyond).

I put this chart together based on what's in the RNS's to give an idea of how Sable will eventually reach capacity from the open pit mines and operate independently from Roan.

https://tinyurl.com/y9k6vhch

This shows the estimated tonnages once Roan is operating at capacity, Munkoyo and Project G are shipping high grade material direct to Sable at the target rates and once the Regional Hubs are in place and upgrading the low grade material.

For this financial year I think we can discount anything from the Regional Hubs because they won't have even decided on the capacity until the New Year. Roan didn't start ramping up until mid way through Q1 so don't expect full contribution from that. Munkoyo is still ramping up to the target rate, expected around December. Project G obviously hasn't even been signed off yet. Once you start to add everyone up I think you can see that the target for this year is pretty realistic.

In order to fill Sable only from the open pit mines I think you can see that they would need at least one more mine similar to Project G (where high grade material is upgraded at site first) or potentially 2 more like Munkoyo. We know they have two more at the advanced discussion stage.

LUFC, the waste rock project would be owned by the SPV set up between IRH and Jubilee, assuming the due diligence is successful. For Jubilee to own and operate it themselves would require a lot of cash so realistically they couldn't do it without a partner with deep pockets. Also it's quite a long way from where the waste rock dumps are located to Roan, I guess a small shipment for testing is OK but shipping lots of material that distance would be very expensive.

Also the scale of the waste rock project is much bigger than Roan could handle on its own. They estimated in the 23rd September RNS that four modules operating on that project would produce a combined 2000 tonnes of copper / month, or 24,000 tonnes / year (30% to Jubilee + operator fees). That's in addition to the theoretical 25,000 tonnes / year capacity of Roan and Sable once they are operating independently of each other.

Https://www.mmmd.gov.zm/insakasummit/?page_id=3145

Leon will be taking part in the Insaka (Zambian version of the Indaba) next Tuesday, in the 14:00 panel discussion. I don't know if it will be broadcast but it would be interesting to see what he has to say.

Thanks guys, I think I'm confusing myself between EBITDA and gross profit... that movement of costs between chrome and PGM's sent me down a rabbit hole of modifying my spreadsheet which I think was a mistake!

Hi Northern, I've been trying (and failing) to make the numbers add up for the EBITDA in the RNS yesterday. I still have a shortfall of about US$4m between the PGM EBITDA quoted and my calculated number from the figures in the "Operational and Financial Indicators" table. Can you see any accounting reason to explain it?

LUFC I certainly get your frustration, obviously if we all had the benefit of hindsight we would have sold at the peak in 2021 and bought back in again this year, plenty of us were suckered into holding on the promise of the copper story playing out much quicker than it did.

The change of direction away from tailings and towards waste rock and run-of-mine seems to have been triggered by two things.

First the problems with power and water delivery. They realised that promised infrastructure at the planned sites for the tailings concentrators was very unlikely to be delivered by the government and so they had to develop the Roan site which by then had upgraded water and power infrastructure.

Second the upgrade at Roan seems to have coincided with the breakthroughs that they made in being able to process mixed oxide and sulphide material so the new modular front end was installed in order to open up a much wider range of material which could be processed.

To be honest I don't know the status of the plan for tailings processing. We know that Draslovka was brought in because using glycine leaching is potentially cheaper than acid leaching and more environmentally friendly. They did some tests and reported good recoveries at around 80% copper (much lower for cobalt) so I presume that testing is ongoing. They are also now looking at doing some kind of glycine leaching on the low grade waste stream coming out of Roan. I think all that will come further down the line. The much higher grades from the open pits are the number one revenue generator once Sables capacity is fully utilised.

I always planned to hold this until the copper story played out, things have changed along the way but I think the foundations are now in place to start filling that capacity. the key thing for me is that they have demonstrated that they can upgrade waste rock into high grade copper concentrate.... nobody else is currently able to do that and that is a big big deal.

LUFC you are of course entitled to believe that Edzi and Frog are just disgruntled long term holders not looking to influence sentiment. I don't believe that.

To be honest I lost interest half way through that diatribe Edzi. Feel free to sell up and leave at any point. I bet you don't though.

Presumably Edzi and Frog will both be at the AGM to air their grievances in person?!

The numbers shouldn't have come as any surprise to either of you, they were pretty much what everyone expected, so if you were happy enough with them before they were released why are you griping now?

Surely the numbers stated for this financial year should add up though Chester. Chrome and copper makes sense with the revenue and costs they quote, it's just PGM's that seem a bit off. I might ask at the next presentation, maybe Neal can explain before he gets his coat!

Three of the four Mwashia Resources licenses that are being renewed are now showing "Renewal Approved" in the Cadastre, with just Jacks Project still to be updated. All 4 are already approved in the MLC updates but good to see them now reflecting that in the Cadastre. The next thing we want to see is the name of the license holder changed from Mwashia Resources to Copernicus Minerals. Hopefully that will pave the way for the Mukai JV with FQM to proceed and drilling to get started!