Member Info for SeisNav

The two areas are very different, with the Domes region in Zambia typically producing large, lower grade (0.5-0.8 %) deposits and the Kalahari Copperbelt in Botswana typically having higher grades (1-2%) but thinner mineralised sheets, typically 5-10m thick.

Northern, it did say in an RNS that DD on the waste rock project was expected to be extended to January in order to do the trials at Roan and asses the results. I have it in my head that the trial was due to kick off this month but I might be wrong on that... so many changes to timelines I tend to loose track of what's going on!

There's a new note out from Zeus too, if anyone wants to see it.

I doubt it would just be about the license applications being re-instated. Possibly news on Botswana assays on the way too?

There is still the placing shares to clear out which is always going to put a break on any movement in SP. We could do with a bit of volume to flush the rest of them out.

Northern, if they break it down by month then I could see that, although Roan front end would still be ramping up during September. I guess we just have to wait and see what they put out. I'm trying to take more of a longer term view anyway, although it can be difficult!

What are people expecting to see in the Q1 numbers to cause a movement in the SP?

PGM and Chrome production and prices should be broadly in line with Q4 FY2024

Copper production is an unknown. It's possible that it might be a little higher than Q4 with the front end starting to ramp up at the end of August and the new power agreement taking effect at around the same time. It's equally possible that the load shedding which has increased in Zambia over the year will result in lower copper production than in Q4. Personally I think the gains in copper won't come through until the Q2 numbers come out, with Roan fully ramped up and (hopefully) producing without power interruptions, Munkoyo increasing high grade material to Sable and project G also starting to come into play.

Https://x.com/DrRyanDLong/status/1853723967833473111

Those buys and sells are best ignored. It’s just an estimate based on the theoretical mid price, which is generally not accurate.

Great news, I genuinely wasn't expect any action at Mukai until next season. This license was the main reason I invested in the first place so excited to see what drilling produces here.

Key Terms of the Binding Letter Agreement

1. The BLA establishes an initial exploration due diligence period of 24 months (Phase 1) during which First Quantum is committed to fund a minimum of US$1.5million in this period including US$500,000 in the first year.

2. If Phase 1 exploration is successful, First Quantum may enter into an earn-in agreement with Copernicus and earn an initial 51% interest in the Licence by demonstrating a Mineral Resource1 containing at least 80,000 tonnes of contained copper metal (current in-ground value over US$700 million) within 24 months of the Transfer Date defined below (Phase 2).

3. On First Quantum electing to proceed to Phase 2, Copernicus will set up a 100% owned special purpose vehicle ("SPV") and the Licence will be transferred to that SPV. The date the Licence is transferred to the SPV will be the "Transfer Date". Any equity to be acquired by First Quantum in the Licence will be acquired via a shareholding in the SPV.

4. If a Mineral Resource of the minimum size is defined during Phase 2, then First Quantum and Copernicus will enter into a Joint Venture/Shareholder's Agreement ("JVA") whereby First Quantum can earn an additional 29% interest (total 80%) in the SPV by completing a Mining Study and delivering a Notice of Intent to Mine within 24 months of the signing of the JVA (Phase 3).

5. First Quantum may elect to extend Phase 3 by 24 months on making the payment set out below.

6. First Quantum must continue sole funding the project up to receipt of regulatory and governmental permits for commencement of construction of a mining project. At that point Copernicus may either participate at a 20% contributing equity level or dilute through to a 10% level at which point the participating interest automatically converts to a 1.5% Net Smelter Return Royalty (NSR).

7. The BLA is subject to the following conditions precedent:

· the renewal and completion of transfer of the Licence to Copernicus.

· receipt of any government approvals that may be required.

· First Quantum completing within 30 days of signing the BLA a satisfactory review of the Company registration documents and good standing of all signatories to the BLA.

8. First Quantum must make the following payments to Copernicus:

· US$20,000 within 30 days of signing the BLA.

· US$30,000 on satisfaction of the conditions precedent.

· US$150,000 within 30 days of the Transfer Date .

· US$300,000 within 30 days of making the election to proceed to Phase 3.

· US$500,000 within 30 days of delivery of a Notice of Intent to Mine.

· US$1,000,000 if requesting to extend Phase 3 beyond 24 months.

Botswana's economy has been built largely on diamonds which are in a downturn at the moment, causing mass unemployment. They need to diversify away from diamonds and the obvious way for them to do that is copper mining which is set to see increasing demand. I would expect the new government to be supportive of new investment in that sector. This is from the new President:

"Following his swearing-in, Duma Boko addressed the nation via a televised broadcast, outlining major pledges such as a significant increase in the minimum wage to 4,000 pula ($300) and the introduction of universal health insurance.

He also stressed the importance of stabilising Botswana’s diamond-dependent economy through diversification, pledging to build investor confidence and strengthen ties with the mining industry. "

Https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/05/some-thoughts-on-arc-minerals-licences.html

I've added a Timelapse image to the end of my Zambia notes, which appears to show a new clearing and a track, created in July / August, over to the west side of the Muswema area. Is this Anglo? Impossible to say but the area where the clearing is, falls on the fault line which runs up that side of the Muswema target, close to Lumbeta. If you look at the image just above, it's close to target 5.

I've added the question of options to the list Dorfan, although I'm sure someone will bring it up anyway!

Https://x.com/Tertiaryplc/status/1851896902876299372

It looks like Brunton Pass due to kick off mid November now.

Hoping to announce news on the Mukai JV "soon"

Very bullish on Mushima North still, a full season of exploration expected there next year.

Northern, I've started jotting down a few potential questions here:

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2024/10/shareholder-questions-for-jubilee.html

I'll add more over the next few days as I think of anything. People are welcome to tag on any of their own in the comments.

Everopeful, as always with Jubilee you have to read between the lines a bit. From that September RNS:

“ targeting to achieve 30 000 tonnes per month feed rate”

The capacity of the front end module is 50,000 tonnes per month so they are not currently feeding it enough to achieve capacity.

“ a combined capacity of its front-end module as well as milling and flotation plant of up to 13 000 tonnes of copper per annum (4 500 and 8 500 capacity respectively), depending on the feed grade”

Again capacity does not necessarily equal production. The front end is only running at 30,000 tpm rather than 50,000 tpm or 60% of capacity. We don’t know what the feed grade is so it’s impossible to estimate what the actual production will be.

The 8500 tonnes capacity from the milling and flotation circuit, according to the diagram on the website, would require additional sulphide feed to fill it.

This is one of the questions I think needs answering at the AGM… what is Roan currently likely to produce and what needs to happen to reach capacity?

I see Takenonotice is starting to branch out into other shares... preparing the way for his exit perhaps? 😉 Hopefully Peggy has his bags packed as well.

Well at least thats one out! Konwave seems to be the biggest recent adder, a Swiss investment company.

It's worth noting that PI's are continuing to increase their overall holding, with Interactive Investor and Hargreaves Landsown up about 18 million since last update, but that still leaves a lot of buying unaccounted for.

Slight correction, FIL have sold 45 million since last update and 60 million since May when the SP decline started.

Canaccord have sold about 19 million since May

We know from rwneville's list that Jupiter had sold 55 million of their 95 million holding at the last update.

Canaccord are still recommending Jubilee as a buy as of last month so I guess they are just reducing their position. FIL... who knows how many they plan to sell.

It would be interesting to know who is buying up these shares, the other major holdings including Slater are unchanged so it may be a new buyer. If rwneville has an updated list maybe they could post it again?