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A good, well balanced post from the fat bloke as always!

I'm joking of course.

There must be a case of diminishing returns when you talk a share down as relentlessly as TNR and his aliases does, anyone but the most brain dead of investor knows what the game is so why bother?

Everopeful, Abrdn is the company which owns Interactive Investor so it might be something to do with that. They acquired II in 2022 which is the date that investment was last updated.

No significant selling for a few days which suggests that either the placing is done or they are not prepared to sell more at this level. Hopefully the former. The typical rule of thumb is it takes about 2.5 times the placing in trading volume to clear it and we were at roughly 2.3 times the placing so it's certainly in the ballpark.

Genises3, what makes Jubilee such an attractive target for a takeover exactly? The South African business is ticking over but without a significant recovery in PGM's it's not exactly a prime target. There's plenty of potential in the Zambian business but it's been significantly hampered over the last few years by external events in Zambia and around the world. Why would anyone buy into that until the Zambian business actually starts to show significant growth rather than potential?

Nobody has bought 300 million shares. There are small funds buying plus PI's absorbing some of those shares.

The end of another quarter is almost upon us so here are the average metals prices for the first 2 quarters for anyone interested:

PGM basket (estimated before costs):

Q1 = US$1407 per PGM oz

Q2 = US$1418 per PGM oz

40-42% Chrome concentrate:

Q1 = US$306 / tonne

Q2 = US$252 / tonne

Copper (LME):

Q1 = US$9,210

Q2 = US$9,207

You clearly haven't moved on because you are still here! If you are going to post, at least try and make it a little more accurate.

Lootgaloot:

"I can be negative on a share and I won't hold back on my opinion but once I've made my point I move on."

Feel free to move on at any point....

To be fair it's been going in that direction since May when the funds started dumping shares!

Maybe they wanted to be out before the New Year! Time will tell I guess.

Dorfan, the PGM basket has been fluctuating in the same price band for the last 18 months or so. I think we need to see a significant reduction in supply to kickstart a recovery, I guess all of the big players are holding back as long as they can, hoping someone else will be the first to jump because once the decision is taken to shutdown a mine it's not straightforward to bring it back into production again when the basket price improves.

Copper for both Q1 and Q2 has been averaging about the same at US$9,200 / tonne

I guess the next news we are expecting is confirmation of the 2 new Thutse modules being fully ramped up which should help offset the reduction in chrome price.

Other institutions have been buying in as you can see from the FT shareholder list, just at a lower level. Obviously all the selling has torpedoed the SP but keep it in perspective, the two big sellers were for reasons not directly related to jubilee and the third has reduced by half, so far at least.

I’m not spinning anything, thems the facts!

Jupiter and Fidelity didn’t give up on JLP, they sold the funds that were holding JLP. Canaccord has been slowly reducing for a while.

So Canaccord Genuity have sold another 15m since the 9th December update. Will that be the last of it? I hope so!

This piece by Hoskings Partners is an interesting read on their reasoning for investing in the PGM industry:

https://www.hoskingpartners.com/articles/rolling-in-the-deep%3A-the-capital-cycle-in-pgms

They have SLP in their fund for its potential to multibag in the event of a recovery in PGMs.

The last section on the uptake of BEV's and the effect on PGM demand in the future is particularly interesting.

I don't think you can argue that Leon has lead the building of a very successful business in South Africa, despite all of the challenges that country faces. Going from about 40,000 tonnes of chrome in 2018 to a projected 2 million tonnes in 2025, the majority of which is from waste. Producing PGM's in the lowest part of the cost curve at a time when a third of all PGM operations are loss making. Any increase in PGM basket would see profits rise rapidly.

Moving into Zambia has proved to be a bigger challenge than anyone might have anticipated, over the last few years the company has had to deal with;

A global pandemic, Wars affecting trade routes and supply chains, falling PGM prices, collapsing cobalt prices, fund managers selling up, failing Zambian infrastructure, a country wide drought, electricity shortages due to over reliance on hydro power.... etcetera etcetera. And yet Jubilee has managed to press on regardless and is continuing to roll out its strategy, which has had to massively evolve due to the aforementioned issues.

Would another CEO have done a better job? I'd argue probably not. Yes you could argue that mistakes have been made but that is going to happen in any business. You can't make every call correctly, especially in such a dynamic situation as the company has found itself in the last few years. For me the major flaw has been communication, over promising and under delivering. Hopefully that's something Leon is learning to improve.

Just did a quick tally and I make it now 2.42 billion shares traded since the placing of 1.1 billion shares. Just putting that there for my own reference.

The frustrating thing is there's a power station in Ndola which was re-comissioned earlier this year, it's only about 3km from the Roan site. Maybe they could run a long extension cable over there... 😉