Member Info for SeisNav

Fair enough lootgaloot, you might end up back in at a better price who knows. I certainly disagree with some of your reasoning though. Why would Jubilee go to the trouble of doing all of this testing at IRH's request if they expected the deal to fall flat? I wasn't at the AGM but the impression I got was that Leon wanted to let shareholders know that there are other options out there which might be more favourable than IRH, something he also mentioned in the last interview.

As for FIL, I'm guessing that retail investors fall under the 'FIL Investment Advisors (UK) Ltd.' holding (maybe someone else can confirm that?) in which case I dont expect that one to be sold down. Time will tell.

HD, PI’s are consistently increasing their holdings as can be seen from the graph, so sentiment is not low. When a fund decides to sell there is always downward pressure on the SP, no matter much buying interest there is, because the seller will just increase the rate of selling to match it.

Another thing I forgot about Mikie, Fidelity also has PI shareholders as well, which must make up at least part of the UK fund, if not all of it.

Lootgaloot, if you want to assume that BOTH FIL funds are going to sell down completely then that would be the case, however so far at least, most of the selling has been from the largest fund, which I already said in my previous post.

For anyone like me who prefers graphs to numbers, here's a graph of the major shareholding updates up to and including today: https://tinyurl.com/2bxcwx93

Looks like FIL is continuing to sell according to the latest update to the Major Shareholders page. I'd assumed once the selling stopped that they were done but apparently they were just taking a breather! It's a bit confusing because they hold shares under 'FIL Investment Advisors (UK) Ltd.' and 'FIL Investments International'. The big seller was 'FIL Investments International' which according to the FT page still had about 34 million shares, having sold 232 million up to 30th September. The Major Shareholders page, updated today, shows FIL holding about 94 million shares, which is roughly what was being shown for 'FIL Investment Advisors (UK) Ltd.' on the Fidelity website.... Confused yet?! Maybe that was the last of the 34 million shares being dumped... I guess we will find out tomorrow.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/speewah-fluorite-gains-major-project-status-2024-12-09

It's a shame the Storuman project wasn't in Australia! Maybe Sweden will re-consider at some point.

It was in his interest to predict a low SP, he cleared off as soon as it started to rise. The only reason you are anywhere near correct with your prediction is because two major shareholders sold down their holdings and crashed the SP. Before that happened the SP was at 8p and climbing. Was that something any of us could have predicted? No, of course not. If you want to crow about being coincidentally correct then go for it.

"Listen to the positive posters and the negative posters and give them equal weight, no matter how much you dislike what they are saying or how badly they are acting. Sentiment makes the market."

The thing is that Bushy was a blatant liar, should we give equal weight to lies as well? Anyway he has much bigger problems to deal with these days over at HUM. I doubt he will receive much sympathy from many LTH's on here, and certainly none from me.

Guessing the SP is a mugs game anyway, with so many unknowns.

An interesting read from September about profitability and outlook in the PGM and chrome industry.

https://www.sfa-oxford.com/market-news-and-insights/sfa-the-squeeze-is-on-managing-the-margins/

"Since 2019, total operating costs for mines have increased by 69% in South Africa. Cost pressures will continue so even if there were to be a recovery in the basket price next year, producers could still have loss-making output from the highest-cost areas. If the chrome price were to fall, that would reduce the viability of the higher-cost UG2 areas on the Western Limb. The question then is: how much longer will losses continue before companies have to address loss-making production?"

The recent drop in chrome prices might be a concern in the short term but it might also be a trigger for further unprofitable PGM mine closures and potentially increasing basket price.

HD, Leon has already laid out the targets for H1 and H2. If you want to ignore those then yes you are likely to be disappointed!

One of the questions I asked in the last interview (via Charles Archer) was how changes in chrome concentrate price impact the costs. Leon did reply that there are fixed costs, that is, the cost to mine the RoM, which remain unchanged regardless of the chrome price but there are also variable costs, the percentage cut which is payable to the partner in Thutse, which does vary with the chrome price.

We know from 7th November operational update that commissioning of both new modules was already ongoing. Leon said in the most recent interview with Charles Archer that full ramp up is typically 6-7 weeks and both are expected to contribute to the numbers within the current quarter, so hopefully within the next couple of weeks we might get some news on those.

Obviously chrome prices have dropped with weaker demand in China currently, how much these new modules will offset that fall is difficult to say as we don’t know exactly how the margin is affected by changes in chrome price. There still seems to be ongoing political unrest in Mozambique which is having an impact on shipping of chrome, which you might imagine will put a floor under the price:

https://mykn.kuehne-nagel.com/news/article/update-new-strike-hinders-cargo-movement-in-m-03-Dec-2024

Https://x.com/DrRyanDLong/status/1864613176349786151

I was wondering if they were still drilling in Zambia now the rains have started but according to this tweet they still are. An update would be nice but I think that the drilling FQM did on AFP licenses wasn't reported until they had assay results.

Best wishes to both of you for a full recovery.

The three licenses falling under the new agreement with Mwashia; Jacks, Mushima North and Mukai, have now been transferred to Copernicus Minerals in the Cadastre. All four licenses that were up for renewal have now been renewed for a further three years, with the areas reduced by half in line with the renewal process.

Since the warrant shares were due to be tradeable in the market there have been roughly 11m shares traded, which is just about double the number of warrant shares. I think tomorrow or the next day should see the back of them. I'm sure the fund managers have been licking their lips, having bought down to 4.5p and then sold some just below 6p they now get to double dip! Hopefully, assuming their are no more shares issued for the new mines, we might finally get a decent run back up again.

Have a look at the RNS from 20th, 5.5m warrants exercised on or around 26th.

They were looking to extend the due diligence period to January to have time to finish the trials and analyse the results.

With respect Summit that's clearly rubbish. They have been affected by the fall in PGM prices just like every other PGM producer. The fact is they have a massive stockpile of PGM rich material to sell when prices recover a bit. Chrome production at an all time high, copper starting to ramp up. If you can't spot the potential here then maybe you need to look elsewhere!