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Leon said in the interview after the proposed deal was announced that the circular would be in the coming weeks so I wasn't surprised we haven't seen it yet. I think they want to get longer term production numbers for Roan first, it's been so stop and start with all the testing that they need to let it run for a while on the new feed and see how it performs. Those numbers are important not just for Roan but also for all the planned future modules.

Yes we don't know if PGM's will be sustained at this level Northern, it's hard to justify valuing the business on the last few weeks of data, but equally it seems wrong to have valued the business based on previous years EBITDA, before the chrome operations were fully in production. We are clearly doing better than that this year.

I have my doubts that they will retain the PGM feed because they made no mention of it whilst pointing out Tjate which is unlikely to be developed in the near future, if at all. You never know though.

I maybe should point out the two horizontal black lines on the chart indicate the channel that the PGM basket has been stuck in for the last two years, when the deal was offered and accepted, the basket price was still within that channel so not out of the ordinary.

I think the chances of this deal getting approved are diminishing so long as the PGM's remain strong. At this kind of level they should be making as much per year as they would get from the deal. If it gets voted down the SP is likely to rocket so there's little incentive to vote for it in the short term.

Here's the recent data for estimated PGM basket and chrome prices: https://tinyurl.com/2uuudu53

PGM's still in an upward trend, chrome has fallen recently but stabilised this week.

I think you're over estimating the PGM margin, even based on last years costs it would be less than US$700. Also they wouldn't be reaching 2m tonnes of chrome because they would be focusing on PGM rich feed to get close to 50,000 ounces.

I get about US$31m for PGM's and US$22m for chrome so maybe US$53m gross profit if prices remained as they are at the moment. Still a decent net profit after deducting the overheads.

Gray / Actuary, this was in the 28th May RNS:

"An on-site processing plant is being planned, with funding discussions ongoing, for the low-grade ROM that incorporates a copper leaching, solid liquid separation, and copper precipitation circuit. Implementation of two 60 tonnes per hour (tph) processing units (30 000 tpm per unit) are targeted with a combined production capability of 350tpm of Cu units. Implementation of the second unit is scheduled to follow approximately six months after the trials on the first unit.

Extended pilot trials are scheduled over the coming three months to include the copper precipitation processing step to confirm the optimal composition of the copper precipitant for direct refining at Sable. The implementation of the first copper processing unit at Munkoyo is targeted for commissioning by end of Q1 CY2026."

That's where I got the numbers for the low grade material at Munkoyo. Timing a bit vague as always but hopefully thats somewhere near.

They are a few hundred meters away from a massive dam at Munkoyo so water shouldn't be a problem.

I'm just using the figures he gave us, if you don't want to believe them thats up to you.

Grovenor should in theory take less time to develop because they don't need to build roads and there is already a concentrator of some sort on site so they should be able to pre-concentrate to some degree before trucking the high grade material to Sable. Anyway, I'm not saying that they are necessarily going to achieve that, just that it's theoretically possible.

This is just using Jubilee's own forecasts for Roan and Munkoyo with my own guesstimates for Grovenor following a similar development to Munkoyo and having one module in production at the LWP in 12 months time: https://tinyurl.com/24y5envs

Obviously it's all theoretical until they start hitting targets but it's achievable in theory.

Gray, I'd be very disappointed if it took 3 years! I reckon we could be at 16,000-18,000 tonnes / year by the end of calendar year 2026, thats assuming Grovenor starts ramping up by October this year and we have one module operation on the LWP in 12 months from now. That seems achievable... they just have to achieve it!

BB, I wouldn't say the chrome business is a failed one, you can't separate chrome from PGM's, overall it's remained profitable, even at the lowest point in the PGM basket. There is little room for significant growth in that business though, unless there's a big upswing in commodity prices. They can't just keep building out chrome modules because the costs in purchasing RoM escalate and the risks also escalate. They took what seemed a reasonable offer at the time for the business. Obviously with what's happened to PGM prices over the last few weeks it doesn't look such a great deal anymore.

Don't be fooled by Leon's assertion that Zambia will be capital light, in the near term he was talking about acquiring upto 6 more mines, completing the Sable upgrade, adding the leaching circuit at Roan, potentially adding a refinery at Roan. That's without the additional modules at Munkoyo and Grovenor and the Large Waste Project. Hopefully the modules will come from external financing but there's still significant money to be spent so we need to see solid evidence that Zambia is going to start delivering in the short term, otherwise there is absolutely no sense in selling the SA business at a time when it is going to generate much better returns on PGM's. That's just my opinion of course.

BB, as far as I know, the PGM price has no impact on the cost to buy RoM, although I think as part of the deal with the mine owner at Thutse they get a small cut of any profits from PGM's. For the toll processing side of the business, where most of the PGM's currently come from, any rise in PGM's would all be upside to Jubilee. For operations at Thutse, as I understand it, they pay for the mining costs plus a percentage to the mine owner based on the current chrome price. Ideally they should be maxing out any JV options on PGM processing now to improve the overall profitability of those operations when the chrome price falls. I don't really see them building another PGM plant because of the costs involved and the risk that PGM's fall back to where they were.

The offer was made and accepted before PGM’s started to significantly increase. Suggesting it was a deliberate attempt to sabotage that business is nonsense. PGM’s had barely moved in 2 years, nobody was expecting a sudden increase like that. Does it make a difference to the offer? Possibly. The fact is that as PGM’s increase, there’s a good chance chrome will decrease (as it is currently doing). We might end up not much better off overall.

They might have been forced to release the news of the offer due to a leak, we saw the buying just before it was released. There’s no point releasing a circular if they don’t have any production data for Roan, what are we expected to base a decision on unless we know for sure the Zambia strategy will be a success?

Never trust anyone who creates a new account just to rubbish the company, like SirTedious.

Those last two trades were the same ones that were posted yesterday.

That was hole 1, they are drilling hole 2.

The basket was well over US$2,000 / ounce between 2020 and 2023 and they didn't manage to shift Tjate then so I don't hold out much hope of them selling it at the moment. Until the recent rise, the majority of PGM miners were loss making on PGM's, with the co-products like gold or chrome keeping them profitable overall. With the future market for PGM's uncertain would you spend billions to develop a new mine right now?

I'm sure Tjate will be developed at some point because there will always be demand for PGM's but who knows when. If the green hydrogen industry takes off then it might be attractive to someone.

Has anyone talked to Papaki Legodi via his Linkedin account to confirm if this account is genuine or not? I'm not saying it isn't but some people will try anything here to gain an advantage, legal or otherwise.

The original estimate for the size of the waste dump was in excess of 350 million tonnes with a purchase price of US$30m, it was later revised down to in excess of 260 million tonnes with a re-negotiated price of US$18m. That was after a significant drilling campaign. Presumably they decided that some of the dump was uneconomic to process for whatever reason. That was already known although the reason for it wasn’t.

You are claiming to know some insider information calling into question the economic viability of the project whereas Leon is stating the results were good enough to justify looking for a more favourable deal…. One of you is wrong.

That’s strange because Leon has publicly stated that the results of the tests justified letting the IRH deal lapse in order to negotiate a better deal. You are basically saying that Leon is lying to investors… that’s quite a serious allegation to make.