Member Info for SeisNav

Another recent new high this morning at an estimated US$1838 / PGM ounce. No sign of it running out of steam yet.

Any deal on selling the PGM and chrome business has to be linked to the current and future PGM basket in my view. If management try to present the same deal to shareholders as initially announced I think they might as well collect their P45's on the way out!

https://tinyurl.com/ysf2fkf9

HD, again, capacity to produce and actual production are two different things. Leon has always focused too much on capacity rather than reality. First you have to be feeding the plant at maximum rate and of a certain grade to get anywhere near capacity. We have never been given any details of what the numbers were for the sulphide circuit. We are just now starting to get numbers for the front end.

My feeling is that they were expecting the two circuits to play nicely together and for some reason that isn’t currently the case. The idea was that you could throw any kind of material at the front end simultaneously and it could deal with it, that’s what Leon was saying in interviews. Now however they are seemingly restricted to only processing the high grade RoM, which is mainly oxides.

Yes those naughty major shareholders, conspiring to reduce the value of their investments... it was all so obvious, how could we have missed it!

I've still got your claims about Leon and I'm more than happy to forward them to the company.... think on.

chatmandu, you are clearly a bull****ter. first accusing leon of committing fraud now creating scenarios which are based on fantasy at best. go sort your nappy out eh?

Estimated PGM basket up marginally to a new recent high today at US$1813 / ounce.

Chrome concentrate unchanged at US$265 / tonne.

Just a reminder that this is actual money which is going into the company accounts 😁

Https://x.com/tertiaryplc/status/1943575290996772948?s=61

Drilling expected to kick off mid next week.

Samancor is the most obvious buyer because Inyoni is already integrated with Samancor's operations and gets its power through Samancor.

Jonah, yes the rise in Ruthenium caught my eye as well. It makes up a similar percentage of the basket as rhodium so at current prices it's not a big contributor to the overall basket price but interesting nonetheless. If you search for ruthenium catalysts you will find lots of recent articles about breakthroughs in that area, including PEM catalysts for hydrogen production so it may well be increasingly important. Maybe the Chinese are stockpiling it already!

Edzi, you can always contact me on X where I have an account under the same name. The chances of me being in London anytime soon are slim.

Here's a summary of the average metals prices for FY25 and the current quarter (calendar dates):

https://tinyurl.com/murzpaph

You can see that all PGM's apart from iridium are up compared to 12 months ago with platinum obviously being the most significant to us as it comprises about 60% of the basket by element. Chrome down compared to previous highs but should still be profitable at that level. Copper has been gradually rising over the last 12 months and currently hovering around the US$10,000 mark.

I didn't include cobalt because it seems to be off the table at the minute but prices have been strong since the DRC imposed a temporary export ban, which was recently extended.

What exactly has this tymsag group actually achieved apart from scaremongering potential shareholders here and on the SRES board? Who is running this alleged group? Is it a current shareholder? Anyone claiming to be representing shareholders should at the least give out their details so they can be checked because all I'm seeing is someone looking to affect the share price whilst actually achieving nothing.

To be fair Chatmadu, you did refer to Leon as a grifter the other day and that wasn't just speculation. A grifter is someone intending to commit fraud so presumably that is what you meant.

Edzi, you’re missing the point, deliberately or otherwise, that few if any can process the mixed oxide / sulphide material economically at the moment. That in itself is good but it also opens up mines which are marginally economic because you can extract value from material which would otherwise just be costing money to move in order to reach the profitable sulphide ore.

Yes mistakes have been made in Zambia but does that mean the company will not be successful as they have been in South Africa? Even the relatively modest upturn in PGM’s means the business is very profitable. If they can make the margin on copper that Leon suggested then earnings in Zambia should relatively quickly overtake what they are making in South Africa.

Would you mind telling us the names of your businesses and who they were sold to so we can check that you are genuine and not just some Walter Mitty multi-millionaire in your own imagination?

Papaki, during the Roast interview with Ricus, he said current cathode capacity at Sable is about 600 tonnes / month. If they hit the stated production levels at Roan and Munkoyo (a big if) then they could be filling Sable capacity by October this year. The Sable expansion in the second half of FY26 doesn't seem rushed to me.

It seems that the leaching circuit at Roan is already being constructed, previously heap leaching was mentioned as an option for that. That would be relatively capital light if that is still the case but hopefully more will be made clear on that in the next update.

One thing you missed is the drive to acquire more mines in the near term, Leon talked of 6-8 Munkoyo's. Obviously a sizeable amount of capital would be required to achieve that.

Personally I think the sale of the SA business was motivated by the desire to scale up in Zambia more quickly and secure those resources before they become more expensive. The big weakness in SA is that they failed to capitalise on their IP quickly enough, meaning that they were making money for other people instead of for Jubilee shareholders. The sudden increase in PGM basket calls into question if the sale is necessary / desirable anymore. If they did want to go ahead with the sale then it should be at a much improved price but personally I'd rather they delay any decision until we see where PGM's are going.

Why would they withdraw the offer? First there are financial penalties involved in doing that and second they are getting a business that is significantly undervalued at current commodity prices.

I don't see any realistic chance of the current offer being accepted by the majority of shareholders and that includes institutional shareholders. At the very least I would hope to see a significantly improved offer.

Based on the numbers that they used, a company valuation of up to US$90m and an EBITDA for FY24 of US$24m, that equates to a multiple on EBITDA of 3.75. Using current prices, my estimate for PGM / chrome EBITDA for FY26 would be about US$40m. If you apply the same multiple that would give a valuation of ~US$150m.

Https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-sunday-roast/id1593750832?i=1000715710756

A bit of discussion about Jubilee from 32 minutes in. No mention of the appreciating PGM basket though.

It's going to have to be a blockbuster of a circular for me to vote in favour of selling. Things which might convince me:

Amazing drilling results at Munkoyo / Grovenor (Munkoyo drilling was due to be completed within the next week).

A much healthier copper margin than forecast.

A deal agreed beforehand to finance the construction of future modules.

Even with one / all of those I don't really see a need to sell if PGM prices remain elevated.

Jonah, I still see those posts, maybe just your browser playing up.

The main thrust of Dr Davies theory was that most analysts just look at above ground stocks as a whole and say that there's plenty of supply already sitting in various warehouses so the dwindling mined supply will have little impact on price, whereas he points out that much of the inventory has been moved to China, and they never re-export PGM's, essentially leaving that supply off limits to the rest of the world. You can always rely on the Chinese to be one step ahead of everyone else!

It's impossible to say how far the drill might be from the ore-shale target, the second drill is nearly 5km away from the first so geology could be very different there. Anyway I agree they should be around 1560m by now, assuming no delays, so hopefully a matter of weeks at most to reach the predicted depth.

Konkola is potentially exciting but not the only iron in the fire.

The second phase of drilling at Mushima North must be due to kick off soon, testing for deeper extensions of the large scale copper / silver / zinc anomaly identified by shallow RC drilling last year. With most of the holes ending in mineralisation that one is very interesting to me. Another nearby anomaly is yet to be properly tested.

The Mukai JV with FQM is an unknown quantity at the moment, not sure if they will progress that further after the initial drilling... we wait and see on that one.

I posted this on X recently about the wholly owned Mupala license:

https://x.com/NavSeis/status/1940382954380984651

One of Anglo's main drill targets is just south of Mupala and they have another target to the north. Mupala has a copper in soil anomaly which hasn't yet been drill tested. The interesting thing is that Anglo and Arc have a clause in the JV contract that if either party acquires additional licenses within a few km of the JV area, they become part of the JV. If Anglo drilling reveals something significant at Cheyeza East, it makes Mupala look very appealing.

The WPIC weren't the only ones predicting a rally, I read a few interesting reports over the last couple of years from Dr David Davis who predicted a sharp increase in platinum, sadly he passed away recently before he saw his prediction realised:

https://www.theafricareport.com/332266/platinum-prices-set-to-soar-as-chinese-strategic-buying-blindsides-the-industry-david-davis/

The PGM basket has reached a new recent high this morning, breaking through US$1,800 / PGM ounce for the first time since 2023.