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Https://x.com/Tertiaryplc/status/1947236374525915639

RB giving some context to the first drill hole, which is planned to test for deeper continuation of the already established shallow mineralisation.

This was from 18th April 2024 RNS:

"Jubilee's fixed margin chrome tolling agreements which are in addition to the processing of Jubilee's own resources, have been further extended to 2027, recognising Jubilee's processing excellence."

It sounds like he meant all of the tolling agreements would run to 2027 so maybe this was not expected.

I had a quick look in here over the weekend and there was someone posting nonsense again with all the hallmarks of Mushinge. Do you think he was trying to get the cheapest possible price to buy this morning knowing that if he looses money on the court case, his best chance of getting it back is buying here knowing it will rise on good news? I noticed there was one biggish buy this morning.

Oldrongo, as far as I'm aware, the price of chrome RoM is not dependent on the PGM basket, only on the price of chrome concentrate. PGM content is essentially a freebie that Jubilee gets as a by-product of producing chrome concentrate.

Yes I read your post Papaki although I don't necessarily agree that loosing the tolling agreement will enhance earnings. That's a fixed margin contract that we no longer have even if the margin is very low. Earnings per tonne will increase due to the higher proportion of market facing product but not overall earnings.

It's disappointing that the PGM production in Q4 was the lowest of any quarter, despite rising PGM basket. I was expecting them to be somewhere close to Q3 and even exceeding it due to the JV which was announced. It seems that the JV will take longer to deliver than we were lead to believe... as usual!

Not sure what to make of the tolling agreement coming to an end... was it expected? It wasn't mentioned as a possibility as far as I know.

Chrome is at US$265 right now, the high point last year was about US$330.

From the Zeus note today:

“We are guided that “with the increased chrome production, we have been able to maintain earnings in South Africa largely in-line with the previous financial year”; Earnings in FY2024 were: EBITDA $24.5m and PAT of $5.1m“

Estimated PGM basket before costs at a nice round US$1,900 / PGM ounce this morning

Chrome concentrate unchanged from last week at US$265 / tonne

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!

The one good thing is that we are benefitting from the elevated PGM prices regardless of sentiment. We should stand to make US$13m-14m gross profit / quarter from SA operations at current prices. Hopefully whatever deal goes to a vote, it better reflects the current value of the business.

I should have pointed out that the numbers on that chart take into account smelter costs / losses which is why it doesn't add up to the current US$1,850. That chart should reflect close to what JLP actually receives but doesn't include production costs, which last year were just over US$600 / ounce.

I thought that some people might find this chart useful. It shows the estimated contributions of each element to the overall basket price:

https://tinyurl.com/3sty6dcs

You can see that at the moment it's platinum and rhodium that are the most significant, making up approximately 75% of the overall value of the basket.

Also, the latest numbers for today are a new (recent) high for the basket at US$1,850 / PGM ounce. Still edging upwards.

If the sale does go through then I think I'll probably take some of my investment out of Jubilee and look for an entry into PGM's elsewhere. I put too much effort into trying to understand the market to just give it all up!

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/heraeus-sees-signs-of-a-possible-new-bull-market-for-platinum-2025-07-15

Hereus was forecasting a drop in platinum a few weeks ago, now they are seeing signs of a possible bull market with more upside.

It's the same pattern you often see when an institution is selling large volumes, we've certainly seen enough of it recently to be familiar with what it looks like! I know Janus Henderson sold 10m in June, it might be them or it might not. I can't prove it of course but that's what I think is going on.

It's no different to any other board. When the SP is falling some people will be trying to paint the blackest picture they can for their own benefit, when it rises they will be ramping it to the heavens. The reality is it looks like an institution is selling some / all of their holding and that is what is driving the SP. The noise generated here isn't going to make any difference one way or the other until they are done.

I don't understand why people are talking about the debt. Most of it is a revolving credit facility to buy chrome RoM. When you sell the chrome ore you can theoretically pay back the debt, or you can use the money to buy more RoM.

Jubilee's SA operations actually performed better than SLP in the last set of results because the management were po-active in moving into purchasing chrome ore rather than just tolling. SLP will benefit more than JLP from the uptick in PGM's because they produce more ounces but I think its wrong to suggest they are superior, after all it took them much longer to move into chrome and they have yet to prove that they can do it successfully, thats not a given. One thing I do like about SLP is the detail that they give to investors, Jubilee give the bare minimum they can get away with which is frustrating.

I would hope that the delay between announcing the deal and the circular is in part due to the rise in PGM's. I'm sure the major shareholders have been proactively talking to management about the deal and hopefully telling them it's unlikely to be passed in its original form. Time will tell on that.

I certainly agree the SP should have been double where we currently are without the deal being announced so they will have to work hard to convince all shareholders that this deal is in anyones best interests.

Update on X showing the shallow drilling:

https://x.com/Tertiaryplc/status/1944668473306550462

The highest grades of mineralisation are near the bottom of the holes with many holes ending in mineralisation. We should get quick turnaround of in-field results over the next few weeks for copper / zinc but will have to wait for assays to check precious metals grades, including silver.

Before the sale was announced we were trading at about 1/10th of SLP share price and that trend had been in place for quite a while so based on that I would say we should have been at about 6.5p now.

A bit optimistic on those numbers in my opinion AB. I've got gross profit of about US$35m for PGM's, US$21m for chrome and US$28m for copper. US$10,000 for copper seems optimistic and you have to remember that some of the copper will be sulphide, sold at a lower price. I'm using revenue/tonne of ~US$9,000 and margin of ~US$3,000/tonne and I thought I was maybe on the high side!

Nevertogiveup, Jubilee have said they want to acquire mines in clusters around Munkoyo and Mumbwa areas in order to utilise centralised concentrator modules. They never said anything about buying mines in the north.