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Breaktwister. What level of jorc do you think gives $50 per oz?
I am in Cnr . They have 2.4 m in inferred and indicated and 600 k of reserves . High grade and a market cap of around £50 m with a billionaire chairman! Possible 10-14 m oz project. Karl nobody is paying for possibly maybes.
Karl, you may have run limited liability companies but have you run one that has no income stream and no prospect of an income stream ? The forward motion here is totally reliant on dilution and maybe a j/v. We have a geologist in charge of that who invests no real cash. N v schdink has been paid for years to get a j/v god Arcm. Look at collective management team !
Good luck here I wouldn’t write off a trading spike geee but these guys imo are not credible in the mining world .
Surrey, he predicted 100 k oz for last year and 150 k oz for this year then turns around and states we are not miners. The accolites didn’t question that prediction. He has also been predicting huge pog gains for ever. He also paid £1.60 for Cnr shares . Hero worship won’t dictate your profits here your average will and the market conditions for acquisitions. I don’t see that much of a shift in producers share prices yet let alone explorers. Nobody is going to pay extra because Mellon is Uber bullish on pog. If he is so bullish why arnt we heading for production with $4 /5 k pog just around the corner??
Funny you mentioning n vidia. I sold nvidia when I thought they had topped a few months back they dropped back and then powered forward so re bought above my sale price and now 55% up in a few months in rebuys . Curious why you wouldn’t have bought back since 2018. The last couple of years have been massive. Tech has been very kind to my pf over the last year and a half . Gold is very hard work to do well in especially explorers and generally the cash is made in a short spell. Ltholding is not a good idea in these shares as Cnr is showing. Cnr far from a bad example too unfortunately.
Good luck.
Polo, the halving isn’t baked into the price. It will rise to the halving and it will rise after most likely peaking q3 next year. In regards to the etf , you should check out how many Bitcoin black rock are buying daily along epithet others . Supply and demand dictates. Cash is streaming out of gold etf into Bitcoin. There is also eth and solana etf to come yet!
Solana has risen 1400% in the time Cnr has been up for sale! Bitcoin and eth up around 200%. Microstrategy up 600% clsk similar. This binary view to investing is plain stupid. But hey .
Have bought a bit back here this week just in case tho. 100% here would be ok if it finally gets a wriggle on.
Nero, we have crossed swords on this one before. If you look at pog and producers share prices you should see that pog went from under $1200 to $2000 and peaked 2021. Indeed I stated this when swapping some into producers such as Shg in 2018 for 4 p when you stated we were still in bear market! Most producers topped in 2021 . Agreed the majority of last 12 years or so have been poor but as always timing is critical.
Hirsch, our great Mellon stated that sanctions had knocked Cnr ability to raise finance for the 150 k oz production he forecasted for this year when announcing a sale process in what we all agree has not been a good time to be up for sale. IMO you are dreaming with your sp hopes but as always, good luck with it.
Slim, cheers for sharing. Better let Hannan know lol.
Agree with Sakura. A deal has to come eventually, what remains to be seen is what it returns to shareholders.
Hirsch, I think the idea that king Mellon is stringing this out to catch a rise in pog is a tad hopeful. Amazing that so much kudos is attached to someone who led peeps to expect 150 k oz production this year. The reason calibre are doing well is they are producing gold and bought two mines for $100 m yet you hope for £1 plus / $250m for something that needs another $100-150 m and 2 years to get to production. Geo politics are worse for entering the country for western companies however they are already there ,producing, debt free,cash rich and diversified.
Simms you have been predicting deal finalise in a month for over a year now. Best to just wait for the good or bad news imv. My prediction is if it completes the sp returned is unlikely to be much more than double today’s. Not bad if you are buyin in today . There is also the possibility perhaps of suspension when deal is anounced if asset sale until payday. Not sure I fancy that much.
Hi ddd. I don’t think any deal will be influenced by short term movement in pog. Gold companies don’t think short term quite rightly. Of course it is preferable for gold to be on the up though. Bitcoin etf is pulling investors from gold etf in a big way currently and Bitcoin has hit an all time high today. Gone from $18 k to 67 k in a year and another year at least of bullrun left.
Not sure tech has topped out . Not mine anyway. Holding nvidia , big bear ai , c3ai . American super conductors microstrategy and others and have transformed my pf over the last year. Only traditional miners that have done anything for me have been uranium and copper. Still ,started buying back in to a few gold producers very recently even joined 888 in n m. Sold out most a few months back.
Can’t quite make my mind up whether to let some more go here or gamble on a deal happening and buy back 24 p shares? Mm.
Get a move on non dom it’s getting boring here waiting for your next 15 p warrant exercise. At this rate we will have the next rns telling us about the next load of options!
Karl, good luck a good resolution and that could be a good buy. Bhargav spent 25 k a month ago when sp was upper 3 s a month ago so yesterday was a somewhat better day to buy just depends what transpires re anza. Not for me presently but Again good luck.
888, recent past is stretching it. About 5/6 years ago and more when mooted. They have indeed spare capacity but they are bringing more projects on stream and proving up new resources at a pace,high grade too.from memory mc alluded to 30-40 k oz. P a. I don’t believe that there is the ability to not build the mine at la India it is stated in permits.
I have done a bit of volte face and bought some producers back this afternoon . Re bought a few nicely under previous exit.
Back in equinox , b2 and a few other divi payers.
Bald mark , agree . The permits also are to build a mine. They already have two that cost less than the cost of building la India . Also la India is too far away from production to fit their model imv. Marathons main project is under construction with first pour early next year with 195k oz for 14 years ina great jurisdiction. $250m. Cannot see how calibre comes to Cnr with a $100 or $150 m mine build to finance and carry out. They buy near term or producing projects that add instant or near term cash. And as you say want to lesson jurisdiction risk
Breaktwister. It seems unlikely to me that they parted with $2 m without gaining some form of security somehow.
I am pretty much out now and will keep an eye and perhaps have a modest punt at some point but not feeling great about this one but hope they prove me wrong and anounce anza soon. I just cannot see how the numbers work and can only see another placing a little bit further down the road. Far too risky for me right now .
Gla
Simms, payback would be from commercial production not first pour. Ramp up period is generally 6 months. And that still leaves the cost of the project to be recouped. £200 m plus if some are to be believed.
Agreed quick payback is important for sale. However $105m needs spending ,18 months construction, 6 months ramp up so 3 years minimum for payback. Then another couple of years to pay off project. The value of the mine in 3 years time is hard to guess. Currently tho Shg is being sold for £150 m.
We should see a deal eventually because the economics are good but geopolitics and a poor selling market hinder a good sale price imo.
888, did newmont lose 50% of its value between oct 2022 and dec 2022??? 28p -14p. No it went up around 25%.That is fact too . Obviously you can manipulate by what point you measure from! So your measure from the heavily discounted placing is deliberately misleading.
I will give you another comparison. I switched some shares from condor around 35 p after a placing into calibre at $1.25. Cnr are currently hovering close to 20 p. Calibre $1.55.
Agreed this is a very hard market . The idea that Cnr is going to kick off the bull year with a good price is very hopeful. What in your opinion is a good price ?
Still curious how calibre could payback in a year?
Hi ddd. I think the obvious starting point is how much total for deal as currently it is an asset sale. Then how many shares will there be and then what are the costs? 65p means £130 m min plus any allied costs so min of £160 m . That’s a big ask I think but hope you are closer than my estimate.
888, yes that is a classic way to manipulate the facts. Ignore the massive crashing of the sp with the big discounted placing in the prior months and go from there. I believe we went from around 28 p to 15 p.
Agree the Goldie market isn’t good for a sale. Should have been selling in 2020/21 .
Now is clearly not the time when big boys are paying big bucks. All your vids tell you that producers go up first and gradually filters down to producers. I exited most producers a while ago and have watched them sink average around 20%since. Will look to buy back in a bit later perhaps when interest rates start falling.
Bad time to sell Shg and Cnr 888. Glad I immediately sold all Shg and put into clsk and mstr.
Interested how you think calibre could buy us and payback in a year. How?? What price are they paying for Cnr ?
You have been main cheerleader for £1 plus . That puts a £200 m plus price on Cnr. You think calibre are trucking that much ore in a year ?? And have that much capacity . They are increasing their reserves and bringing more on line constantly. Not withstanding the commitment to a mine at la India.
Concur it is a bad market to be selling into. If we were miners we could have been looking at first pour this year. 4 years later than many predicted but hey it is what it is. Hopefully most will recoup most of their stakes.